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1
Posted on 8/24/21 at 3:56 pm to Oates Mustache
More like "and"
Posted on 8/24/21 at 3:56 pm to S
quote:
I suppose I’ll have to go fishing off Montauk instead.
Miguel assured me no damage to the chateau or the sailboat in Montauk. Headed up Labor Day weekend to compete in the Regatta. Hopefully I can beat that buffoon Kennedy cousin this year
Posted on 8/24/21 at 3:56 pm to rds dc
We desperately need the rain up here in Indiana. Tropical storm looks like the only way we might be able to get some....
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:02 pm to rds dc
Yucatan have that. Belize you me.
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:12 pm to rds dc
Models are coming into agreement that we will see development over the next 3-5 days and then a general NW movement into the Gulf. The 12z EPS has a bit more of a northern spread than the GEFS but the GEFS might have a bit of south bias in these type setups.
This setup will be tough on the models, there is a developing EPAC system, a monsoon trough, and a westward moving tropical wave.
Models show a pretty favorable upper level environment over the Gulf as the system consolidates and moves toward the Yucatan. There is a PV streamer over the Western Gulf but outflow from an organized system would make short work of that.
One of the issues with this system is that the overall system envelope will be large with lots of moisture. Models tend to struggle with this, esp. when it comes to pinning down the location and timing of consolidation of the LLC. Slower and/or farther south means land interaction with the Yucatan and less time to organize in the Gulf. Faster and/or farther north could result in issues down the road.
Either way, lots of moisture moving NW with this system and someone will get a lot of rain.
This setup will be tough on the models, there is a developing EPAC system, a monsoon trough, and a westward moving tropical wave.
Models show a pretty favorable upper level environment over the Gulf as the system consolidates and moves toward the Yucatan. There is a PV streamer over the Western Gulf but outflow from an organized system would make short work of that.
One of the issues with this system is that the overall system envelope will be large with lots of moisture. Models tend to struggle with this, esp. when it comes to pinning down the location and timing of consolidation of the LLC. Slower and/or farther south means land interaction with the Yucatan and less time to organize in the Gulf. Faster and/or farther north could result in issues down the road.
Either way, lots of moisture moving NW with this system and someone will get a lot of rain.
This post was edited on 8/24/21 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:12 pm to rds dc
How will this affect my vacation to 30A
Thanks in advance
Thanks in advance
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:14 pm to rds dc
GFS puts it into south Texas. Euro puts it into Louisiana but as a weak TS.
Euro thinks the high pressure ridge keeping the northern gulf closed eroded while GFS keeps it in place.
Let’s hope the Euro is wrong
Euro thinks the high pressure ridge keeping the northern gulf closed eroded while GFS keeps it in place.
Let’s hope the Euro is wrong
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:14 pm to East Coast Band
quote:None. Shall. Pass
Nicaragua says
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:14 pm to deltaland
quote:
Let’s hope the Euro is wrong
Has been a lot lately
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:17 pm to Tiger Ryno
quote:
Thankfully my HOA banned all hurricanes last year.
But did the pool board approve it?
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:18 pm to rds dc
So basically it seems like if this thing goes into the BOC its mexico bound but if it goes more eastward into open gulf its on for either Texas or Louisiana
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:19 pm to rds dc
How will this impact my flight to LA next Wednesday
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:24 pm to rds dc
Poor lake Chuck
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:29 pm to rsbd
Which one of yall is this 
quote:
Levi, I think Houston should start evacuating within 48 hours due to model consensus regarding Texas landfall, 6 days out be damned! Yr. thoughts?
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:30 pm to rsbd
I know early in the game and things will change a lot but WPC taking notice on potential heavy rain in the later portion of the weekend and early next week.
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:38 pm to rds dc
Waiting for Peej’s prediction before I start to make preparations.
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:52 pm to Legion of Doom
quote:
Waiting for Peej’s prediction before I start to make preparations.
Come on man. Why would you say his name? He can sense that shite.
Posted on 8/24/21 at 4:53 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
So basically it seems like if this thing goes into the BOC its mexico bound but if it goes more eastward into open gulf its on for either Texas or Louisiana
Yeah, pretty much. Either slower or weaker gets it pinned down farther south. Faster or quicker organizing, more north.
Posted on 8/24/21 at 5:01 pm to lsuman25
5” of rain over a week
Normal week in louisiana
Normal week in louisiana
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