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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:19 pm to RazorBroncs
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:19 pm to RazorBroncs
Just a note... that particulate wind direction is derived from sfc observations and satellite...but a lot of it is still inferred by a computer algorithm that uses model data. Just because you see a feature on there, that doesn't mean it actually exists.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 3:20 pm
0
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:30 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
These models need to be coached up
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:30 pm to LSURoss
quote:
Looking at the OP, does the LBAR put every storm right up the Ms river?
quote:
Strengths: LBAR runs quickly (the hurricane specialists can view the output of the 1200 UTC LBAR run before they have to complete their 1500 UTC package). LBAR performs best early in the hurricane season (before fronts penetrate into the subtropics) and on storms that move primarily westward and only move slowly northward. LBAR outperforms all the statistical track guidance models, and its skill in the 12-36 hr time frame is comparable to that of the more complex baroclinic models.
Weaknesses: LBAR does not perform well whenever there is significant vertical wind shear, or when there are multiple, interacting storms.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:41 pm to GEAUXmedic
that wed aug 31 graphic looks stupid. 
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:44 pm to bayoudude
quote:
storm that shall not be named...
Gustav... this one bothers me.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 3:47 pm to GEAUXmedic
Looks like the swirl from earlier is dying, I would not be surprised to see a new one form tonight in that area of deep convection. If that happens does it try to get better organized or get sheared and dry air intrusion again.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 4:46 pm to lsuman25
Any updates on where this thing is headed?
Posted on 8/26/16 at 4:49 pm to GeauxTime9
still anybody's guess
Posted on 8/26/16 at 4:50 pm to GeauxTime9
I'm already worried about that death star heading to the East Coast in 16 days.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:06 pm to lsuman25
Even Dr. Masters is confused by this his new blog says all possibilities remain on the table regarding 99L.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:16 pm to TheWiz
quote:
We'll have 10 ft. storm surge coming out of our lakes over here in Arkansas for that damn thing.
Seriously though, if that comes to fruition itll be one massive TS/hurricane the likes of Sandy and Katr...... uhhhh some other huge one.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:18 pm to RazorBroncs
Where did this one come from? Haven't heard about this until now.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:23 pm to Paul Allen
If you watch the 12 Z GFS, it shows that thing popping up at the end of the animation.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 5:24 pm
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:23 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Even Dr. Masters is confused by this
What is he confused about?
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:25 pm to rds dc
basically he said it could stay a wave become a storm or even a hurricane and the track could go anywhere also although the Florida Big Bend to the panhandle looks like the scenario as of now
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:25 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Where did this one come from? Haven't heard about this until now.
It's on some of the models 16+ days out, so take it with 1/100th of a grain of salt.
It's the equivalent of correctly guessing your child's sex, weight, eye, and hair color before you've even had the sex to create it.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:26 pm to RazorBroncs
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:26 pm to lsuman25
quote:
basically he said it could stay a wave become a storm or even a hurricane and the track could go anywhere also although the Florida Big Bend to the panhandle looks like the scenario as of now
Makes sense.
18z GFS does nothing with 99L
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:26 pm to Paul Allen
Africa is basically throwing fireballs right now.
Posted on 8/26/16 at 5:27 pm to RazorBroncs
There's a wave in the gulf baw. I think that's what he's talking about
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