re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired

hey tiger and Penn. i used to live in jax beach a few years back and as you probably know by now that place
floods with a little rain much less a hurricane sitting right off the coast. if i were you i would have my valuables packed and ready to move my tommorrow afternoon. Flboo and i are brothers we used to live in jax beach and i remember the roads flooding all the time. good luck !

EDIT: I just saw the 12z GFS forecast which appears to have moved the storm substantially west. So I may be completely wrong.

I want to clarify my comment about moving the game.

I was referring to weather events only.

The current forecast for Gainesville is to have minimal, if any, effects from the storm. If Gainseville is in the Cone of Uncertainty, it is just barely.

At worst LSU can fly in and out of Tampa and bus the 90 miles to Gainesville in the unlikely event Gainesville airport is closed. Not sure if they fly in and out of Gainseville anyway.

I was not referring to any need to house emergency workers that far from Jacksonville or other logistical issues.

I was merely referring to the weather.

At worst, maybe move the game to Raymond James in Tampa.

Thankfully, the Emergency Management agencies in Florida are very well equipped to figure out these events.

And yes, I have lived through more than one hurricane and I have lived through two tornadoes, so yes I get what happens.

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do you put any stock in this??

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The loop makes sense based on what models are showing but not much confidence in models at this point. The weak cold front that moves to the north of Matthew doesn't pick it up. The high that builds over Matthew gets pushed east by that same weak cold front. So when Matthew gets left behind, there is really only the option to head back south because the path to the east is blocked by the high. Obviously, that can all change with so many moving parts but it makes sense based on current models.

Also, westward shift on 12z GEFS with a cluster of members passing near or over Gainesville.

Breaking on Weather.com
Florida Gov
"If you are able to go early, leave now"

It is certainly on the table, but not the most likely thing, as it probably gets pulled out to sea. At least that is what it looked like this morning, I haven't had time to go through the models since then.

The "ditch" is the water to the left of Neptune Beach and Jacksonville Beach

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wrong.

likelihood is now for a loop.

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Not what I am saying. I am talking about after the loop happens.

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Not what I am saying. I am talking about after the loop happens.

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if the loop happens, and it is increasingly more likely with each model run, this thing will end up smashing the bahamas and Florida a SECOND time, then hitting the southern Gulf with that nice warm Loop Current water.

12z Euro has just started

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if the loop happens, and it is increasingly more likely with each model run, this thing will end up smashing the bahamas and Florida a SECOND time, then hitting the southern Gulf with that nice warm Loop Current water.

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Nobody ever accused you of being an optimist eh?