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Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:05 am to cajunangelle
quote:
It makes no sense that Jamaicans are doing this and not evacing the Island
Not sure if serious.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:05 am to cajunangelle
Unfortunately there are no ferries and no close adjacent areas. Cuba is the closest and it's gonna hit there and prolly wouldn't allow people to evacuate there. Boats would be no better option and even if the US used every large cargo plane it wouldn't work.
We've got a lot of friends in Jamaica (North side fortunately).They're stocking up, going to find shelter and ride this out. It's all they can do. Most of the people on Jamaica redefine dirt poor so there are no other options.
Hope for the best, pray a lot and prepare as best you can!!!
We've got a lot of friends in Jamaica (North side fortunately).They're stocking up, going to find shelter and ride this out. It's all they can do. Most of the people on Jamaica redefine dirt poor so there are no other options.
Hope for the best, pray a lot and prepare as best you can!!!
This post was edited on 10/1/16 at 10:09 am
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:08 am to tigger42day
I've read that Jamaica is very well prepared for major hurricanes. They taken some big hits before and the death tolls were surprisingly low.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:11 am to cajunangelle
quote:
It makes no sense that Jamaicans are doing this and not evacing the Island
I saw many houses (shacks) in Jamaica that only had three walls. Yes, it had a roof but it was wide arse open. Chicken coops in the US are more habitable for humans. Incredible poverty. No means to leave island. Hunker down and pray.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:14 am to doubleb
If this landfalls at Kingston as a Cat 5, it will be a catastrophe. I don't think any prep will solve that. This morning the models drifted east which helps.
They're better prepared than Haiti but the poor can only do so much.
They're better prepared than Haiti but the poor can only do so much.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:31 am to tigger42day
quote:
Unfortunately there are no ferries and no close adjacent areas. Cuba is the closest and it's gonna hit there and prolly wouldn't allow people to evacuate there. Boats would be no better option and even if the US used every large cargo plane it wouldn't work.
We've got a lot of friends in Jamaica (North side fortunately).They're stocking up, going to find shelter and ride this out. It's all they can do. Most of the people on Jamaica redefine dirt poor so there are no other options.
Hope for the best, pray a lot and prepare as best you can!!!
I was thinking too much in a military mindset of an evac from Cuba. I actually had to do once. I did not realize or properly visualize the population of Jamaica was that many people.
They probably have good underground shelters. We did not really have that in Guantanamo, Cuba.
Most of the homes in GTMO Cuba were built with a strong hurricane in mind.
I am praying for all of them.
This post was edited on 10/1/16 at 10:37 am
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:37 am to cajunangelle
What % of people don't evacuate the coastal areas of the US when there is a mandatory evacuation? and as mentioned about it being an island with no real means to get off the island.
I'm telling you, it's such impoverished conditions in many places, it always looks a hurricane has just hit. So, if one really does...
I'm telling you, it's such impoverished conditions in many places, it always looks a hurricane has just hit. So, if one really does...
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:42 am to East Coast Band
It is a shame. And as I said, you're correct. I was incorrectly thinking about an entirely different scenerio. I realize there are a lot of poor people as well. So sad...
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:47 am to rds dc
Still moving west with a wobble to the southwest...
Are the more westerly models given more weight or are all the models thrown out and re-figured if it doesn't start moving north when they think they should?
Are the more westerly models given more weight or are all the models thrown out and re-figured if it doesn't start moving north when they think they should?
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:49 am to cajunangelle
quote:Flooding is gonna be rampant
They probably have good underground shelters.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:53 am to cajunangelle
On a good note, the models have shifted a little east!! For Jamaica, one can hope for a further drift east. Unfortunately this puts it more towards Gitmo and Haiti...
Posted on 10/1/16 at 10:58 am to tigger42day
12z GFS has eye passing between Jamaica and Haiti and just clipping Eastern Cuba.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 11:14 am to Zephyrius
quote:
Still moving west with a wobble to the southwest...
Are the more westerly models given more weight or are all the models thrown out and re-figured if it doesn't start moving north when they think they should?
How far west it gets doesn't really matter, it is how far back to the NE does and turn and how fast. There is trough over the Gulf that turns the system back north (or NE depending how fast the Atlantic ridge breaks down) in every scenario.
You can see the flow coming out of the SW to the NE out in front of the system. That extends down through the atmosphere basically guaranteeing the turn.
Beyond the turn is when it gets complicated.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 11:28 am to rds dc
Looks like a Cat 5 into N.C. on the 12z GFS. The Euro has been flipping between out to sea or getting trapped under the ridge with a NW turn or stall on the last few runs (last 2 12z runs NW turn or trapped stall, last 2 00z runs faster N or NE movement). So it will be interesting to see what it does today at 12z.
12z GFS
12z GFS
Posted on 10/1/16 at 11:41 am to tigger42day
quote:
We've got a lot of friends in Jamaica (North side fortunately).They're stocking up, going to find shelter and ride this out. It's all they can do. Most of the people on Jamaica redefine dirt poor so there are no other options.
Hope for the best, pray a lot and prepare as best you can!!!
I hav a soft spot in my heart for Jamaica. I've been there twice and most recently few weeks ago in Run Away Bay (Bahia Gand Principe -Don Pablo). I learned once again the definition of "no worries" and laid back. Just like anywhere else in the world there are deplorable people, and Jamaica has some, but everyone we encountered was completely awesome. You are beyond absolutely correct in saying Jamaica redefines dirt poor. Our plan/hope is to start going to Jamaica on a semi-regular basis. Jamaica has some very pretty and picturesque areas. I'll be keeping the island of Jamaica in my prayers for sure, along with the rest of the folks in the path of this hurricane.
Apologies for going of on a tangent here.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 11:47 am to rds dc
Also, a couple of minor changes on the 00z Euro EPS. The mean shifted east, giving support to the operational run solution. However, there was a westward expansion with a distinct cluster into the Gulf. The 12z Euro EPS from yesterday didn't have any members in the Gulf.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 11:47 am to Enadious
quote:
I saw many houses (shacks) in Jamaica that only had three walls. Yes, it had a roof but it was wide arse open. Chicken coops in the US are more habitable for humans. Incredible poverty. No means to leave island. Hunker down and pray.
This times a thousand!
I'm certainly no expert on storms/weather but when we were in Jamaica few weeks ago I spoke with several folks from Jamaica and the subject of hurricanes came up. I asked them how they prepare and surprisingly most said they just hunker down and pray (very religious folks). To my surprise (sort of) all of them said that depending on where a storm would hit or make landfall, the mountains actually help them out a lot.
Posted on 10/1/16 at 11:53 am to 31TIGERS
Jog south over the last few frames
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