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re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired
Posted on 9/29/16 at 10:48 pm to SprintFun
Posted on 9/29/16 at 10:48 pm to SprintFun
00z GFS got some additional data from this afternoons special upper air recon. It is initialized with a slightly stronger ridge over the top of the system. However, I still don't think that matters too much in the long run. Unless, the new data changes the evolution of the trough over the Gulf that gets left behind as the massive cutoff low lifts out.


Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:03 pm to rds dc
Through 84h, bad news for Jamaica and you can start to see how some of the 12z Euro EPS members get into the Gulf.
However, the upper level trough still looks plenty strong to block the Gulf. It would have to cutoff and retrograde to the SW faster than models have been showing for this to get much farther west as it rounds the ridge.

However, the upper level trough still looks plenty strong to block the Gulf. It would have to cutoff and retrograde to the SW faster than models have been showing for this to get much farther west as it rounds the ridge.

Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:20 pm to rds dc
Creeping the Bahamas at 120hrs. That little circle over Boston might be all that is keeping this from swinging back west towards S. Florida. Interesting run so far, bad news for Jamaica and the Bahamas. Combine the first 120hrs of this run with the 12z Euro that backs the upper level trough to the SW and there could be issues.

Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:23 pm to rds dc
You do great work, but you do realize you are speaking Latin to cavemen most of the time right? 

This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 10:49 am
Posted on 9/30/16 at 12:30 am to rds dc
Matthew has rapidly strengthen to a category 2 100mph hurricane now
Posted on 9/30/16 at 1:21 am to lsuman25
yeah I wish I had been watching recon... that was a pretty unexpected jump. The dropsonde also found a core of 120-130mph winds just above the surface so it will probably continue to intensify when that mixes down. Might be looking at a major hurricane by lunch tomorrow.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:15 am to fishfighter
Could put on a show today but the overnight model data suggest the threat to the US has significantly decreased.


Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:22 am to rds dc
quote:
threat to the US has significantly decreased.
Couldn't tell by that satellite loop, but hopefully this is good news.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:23 am to rds dc
quote:The Euro & GFS both have it more easterly now, right?
Could put on a show today but the overnight model data suggest the threat to the US has significantly decreased.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 8:25 am to ForeverLSU02
Yes, the two main models, the Euro and the GFS have it missing the US E. Coast by a good bit now, even more than yesterday. Nothing is certain until we see it actually turn but I've gotta say the models have been pretty darn good. I remember a week ago when this was just a 'pouch' in Africa the models had this coming all the way in the Caribbean and getting very strong and turning north at some point, generally what it has done so far, except for the north turn, yet. I have no reason to believe the storm will do anything other than what the model consensus is showing right now. That is make a hard right, slam either Haiti, Cuba or Jamaica, or all three to an extent, play havoc with the central/eastern Bahamas and then scoot out to sea on a quick North/North East track.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 9:57 am to otowntiger
Upgraded to a major. This could be a really bad situation for the WCARB islands.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 9:58 am to rds dc
Was just coming to post this


Posted on 9/30/16 at 10:31 am to ForeverLSU02
Basically from a somewhat sheared Tropical Storm to a Major in 24 hours. Wow.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 10:43 am to rds dc
What are your odds in saying that the GOM is safe for now?
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:04 am to ForeverLSU02
The cold front that us coming through the southeast will push the storm north.... Odds are very very low it enters the gulf.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:05 am to dukke v
I hope you're right

quote:
posted by dukke v

Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:09 am to ForeverLSU02
Guantanamo Bay is in for a bad time.
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 11:10 am
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:10 am to dukke v
quote:
The cold front that us coming through the southeast will push the storm north
what if it moves faster than expected and pushes it south and to the west
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