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re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired

Posted on 9/29/16 at 10:48 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 9/29/16 at 10:48 pm to
00z GFS got some additional data from this afternoons special upper air recon. It is initialized with a slightly stronger ridge over the top of the system. However, I still don't think that matters too much in the long run. Unless, the new data changes the evolution of the trough over the Gulf that gets left behind as the massive cutoff low lifts out.

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:03 pm to
Through 84h, bad news for Jamaica and you can start to see how some of the 12z Euro EPS members get into the Gulf.



However, the upper level trough still looks plenty strong to block the Gulf. It would have to cutoff and retrograde to the SW faster than models have been showing for this to get much farther west as it rounds the ridge.

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:20 pm to
Creeping the Bahamas at 120hrs. That little circle over Boston might be all that is keeping this from swinging back west towards S. Florida. Interesting run so far, bad news for Jamaica and the Bahamas. Combine the first 120hrs of this run with the 12z Euro that backs the upper level trough to the SW and there could be issues.




Posted by DoUrden
UnderDark
Member since Oct 2011
25965 posts
Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:23 pm to
You do great work, but you do realize you are speaking Latin to cavemen most of the time right?
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 10:49 am
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42861 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 12:30 am to
Matthew has rapidly strengthen to a category 2 100mph hurricane now
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 1:21 am to
yeah I wish I had been watching recon... that was a pretty unexpected jump. The dropsonde also found a core of 120-130mph winds just above the surface so it will probably continue to intensify when that mixes down. Might be looking at a major hurricane by lunch tomorrow.
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:32 am to
Thanks for the updates.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:15 am to
Could put on a show today but the overnight model data suggest the threat to the US has significantly decreased.

Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
65901 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:22 am to
quote:

threat to the US has significantly decreased.

Couldn't tell by that satellite loop, but hopefully this is good news.
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52357 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:22 am to
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52357 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:23 am to
quote:

Could put on a show today but the overnight model data suggest the threat to the US has significantly decreased.

The Euro & GFS both have it more easterly now, right?
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16216 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 8:25 am to
Yes, the two main models, the Euro and the GFS have it missing the US E. Coast by a good bit now, even more than yesterday. Nothing is certain until we see it actually turn but I've gotta say the models have been pretty darn good. I remember a week ago when this was just a 'pouch' in Africa the models had this coming all the way in the Caribbean and getting very strong and turning north at some point, generally what it has done so far, except for the north turn, yet. I have no reason to believe the storm will do anything other than what the model consensus is showing right now. That is make a hard right, slam either Haiti, Cuba or Jamaica, or all three to an extent, play havoc with the central/eastern Bahamas and then scoot out to sea on a quick North/North East track.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 9:57 am to
Upgraded to a major. This could be a really bad situation for the WCARB islands.
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52357 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 9:58 am to
Was just coming to post this

Posted by SohCahToa
New Orleans, La
Member since Jan 2011
7785 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 10:31 am to
Basically from a somewhat sheared Tropical Storm to a Major in 24 hours. Wow.
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52357 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 10:43 am to
What are your odds in saying that the GOM is safe for now?
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
214003 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:04 am to
The cold front that us coming through the southeast will push the storm north.... Odds are very very low it enters the gulf.
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52357 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:05 am to
I hope you're right




























quote:

posted by dukke v



Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53402 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:09 am to
Guantanamo Bay is in for a bad time.
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 11:10 am
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
68739 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:10 am to
quote:

The cold front that us coming through the southeast will push the storm north


what if it moves faster than expected and pushes it south and to the west
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