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re: Stanford University anti-body study finds COVID-19 more widespread than thought
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:38 pm to Jake88
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:38 pm to Jake88
quote:
It's not just like the flu. I've never seen the flu tear through nursing homes and some of the other places I'm contracted with over the last 20 years like COVID has.
One thing you may not be considering is that flu deaths are spread out over years based on some immunity and vaccines lowering the number of infected in a nursing home community.
The way to think about it would be to imagine if the flu never existed and then it came out of nowhere and everyone in the nursing home was infected at the same time.
That picture probably looks a lot different.
0
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:38 pm to dltigers3
quote:
If they calculated the flu CFR the same exact way they are currently calculating CV CFR (deaths both confirmed and assumed/estimated total cases), the flu is over twice as deadly
The 2017-2018 flu season would have actually been 10x deadlier.
quote:
During October 1, 2017–May 19, 2018, clinical laboratories tested 1,210,053 specimens for influenza virus; 224,113 (18.5%) tested positive (Supplementary Figure 1, LINK )
Public health laboratories tested 98,446 specimens during October 1, 2017–May 19, 2018; 53,790 (54.6%) were positive for influenza viruses, including 38,303 (71.2%) positive for influenza A and 15,487 (28.8%) for influenza B (Supplementary Figure 2, LINK ).
With 81,000 deaths that is about 30%.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:44 pm to Pintail
quote:
The 2017-2018 flu season would have actually been 10x deadlier.
Yea, I was being conservative because I couldn’t remember the numbers off hand, and the CFR has had such a drastic increase in the past week or so. Thanks. This is an inconvenient fact that the doomsdayers seem to ignore
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:46 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
I said a week ago that these studies were going to show an absurdly high infection rate because of all of the false positives, as high as 80%.
Where are you getting this? They state their combined data usage gives a sensitivity of 80.3% (low end 72%) giving them a 20% chance of a false positive. But their specificity is 99.5% giving them better validation for those who don’t have antibodies. Or maybe I read it wrong.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:54 pm to Pintail
There now have been many studies of covid total fatality rate that put it at between .1 and .6. It is about as deadly as the Flu for healthy people. Less deadly than the Flu for kids. More deadly than the Flu for unhealthy or old.
It is more infectious than the Flu by an order of 2 or 3 times, but that is because people have immunity to the Flu.
The risk presented by a disease is a combination of fatality rate and how fast it spreads.
Ebola has a very high mortality rate, but it doesn't spread fast because it kills fast.
Coronavirus does not have a high mortality rate but spreads fast due to all of the asymptomatic infections.
It is more infectious than the Flu by an order of 2 or 3 times, but that is because people have immunity to the Flu.
The risk presented by a disease is a combination of fatality rate and how fast it spreads.
Ebola has a very high mortality rate, but it doesn't spread fast because it kills fast.
Coronavirus does not have a high mortality rate but spreads fast due to all of the asymptomatic infections.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 2:10 pm to RollTide1987
This is bad news. I live in Santa Clara County. I was hoping this would be closer to 25%. This will give the county the ammunition they need to try and keep things closed until a vaccine is commercially developed.
Even if it is 4%, that is only 1 in 25 exposed, so high potential for repeat spike to overwhelm hospitals.
On the flip side, shows the benefit of closing travel with China
Even if it is 4%, that is only 1 in 25 exposed, so high potential for repeat spike to overwhelm hospitals.
On the flip side, shows the benefit of closing travel with China
Posted on 4/17/20 at 2:12 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
translation ....it's just the flu
No!
My sister in law who's an RN in the ICU (graduated at the top of her community college class) told me it's way worse.
She's like a Special Forces soldier battling this virus.
Despite a mountain of proof to the contrary we must trust her.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 2:13 pm to Shaun176
Shaun,
That was an absolutely perfect summation.
Good shite.
That was an absolutely perfect summation.
Good shite.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 2:14 pm to Privateer 2007
quote:
No!
My sister in law who's an RN in the ICU (graduated at the top of her community college class) told me it's way worse.
She's like a Special Forces soldier battling this virus.
Despite a mountain of proof to the contrary we must trust her.
Melt
Posted on 4/17/20 at 2:24 pm to FreddieMac
quote:
Posted by FreddieMac ? on 4/17/20 at 1:10 pm to McLemore
You people really need to stop focusing on single articles and making pronouncements. That is why we do literature reviews. We look at the preponderance of evidence, not a single study.
Are you talking to me?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 2:27 pm to RollTide1987
It's definitely worse than the flu, but not magnitudes worse like people have been trying to claim.
Long story short, the reaction to this was absurd.
Long story short, the reaction to this was absurd.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 7:36 pm to RB10
quote:I mean it’s either 1.5 to 2.5 times more contagious and 10-20 times more deadly (1-2% IFR) or it’s more like twice as contagious as estimated but half as deadly.
It's definitely worse than the flu, but not magnitudes worse like people have been trying to claim.
Regardless, it’s 20 to 40 times worse than the flu, and we’re not even sure whether immunity to it exists, and if it does, to what extent.
Regardless this study has far too many issues (self-selected sample, false positive probabilities) that it’s impossible to generalize its results to even Santa Clara County, let alone to the state, nation, and world.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 7:40 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 7:37 pm to cwil177
quote:
The flu doesn’t overwhelm ICUs and ERs in hard hit areas
Someone watches fake news CNN
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:17 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I find it telling this post of mine got six downvotes but not one single reply detailing overwhelmed hospitals.
*still waiting to hear about these “overwhelmed” ICUs and ERs
My mom is currently working in an ICU in Brooklyn. They’ve had to convert 4 extra areas into ICUs, nearly everyone is intubated, and I believe the entire hospital (or at least close to it) is covid patients. She has friends at other hospitals in the city that are all the same.
That good enough for you or no?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:23 pm to arkyhawk
By the way, the study used tests provided by Premier Biotech, and there was a report today that they were importing antibody tests from Chinese manufacturers that weren’t even approved by China’s FDA, let alone been independently studied and approved here.
Unapproved Chinese coronavirus antibody tests being used in at least 2 states
Unapproved Chinese coronavirus antibody tests being used in at least 2 states
quote:
Some Chinese-made COVID-19 antibody tests being used in the U.S. were not approved by China's FDA. China has now barred their export.
quote:
Two U.S. companies — Premier Biotech of Minneapolis and Aytu Bioscience of Colorado — have been distributing the tests from unapproved Chinese manufacturers, according to health officials, FDA filings and a spokesman for one of the Chinese manufacturers. Many of the unapproved tests appear to have been shipped to the U.S. after the FDA relaxed its guidelines for tests in mid-March and before the Chinese government banned their export just over two weeks later.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:29 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
I mean it’s either 1.5 to 2.5 times more contagious and 10-20 times more deadly (1-2% IFR) or it’s more like twice as contagious as estimated but half as deadly.
Regardless, it’s 20 to 40 times worse than the flu, and we’re not even sure whether immunity to it exists, and if it does, to what extent.
That's not how this works.
quote:
Regardless this study has far too many issues (self-selected sample, false positive probabilities) that it’s impossible to generalize its results to even Santa Clara County, let alone to the state, nation, and world.
As I always do, I'm going to apologize for this positive bit of news bothering you so much.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 8:35 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:43 pm to LSUminati
quote:
(1) Highly contagious; (2) Low mortality
Yup. We knew this from Iceland's numbers.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:44 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Iceland concluded early on that at least 1% of its population was infected. The true CFR is less than .5%. Maybe way less.
.2% in iceland.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:45 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
There’s been over 14,600 deaths in New York City. If every single one of the 8.7 million people in NYC have had the virus (unlikely), the death rate is about 0.17%.
Based on the median estimates from the CDC, the seasonal flu death rate is about 0.09%.
Translation = not the fricking flu
Uh, basically the flu.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 8:46 pm to msutiger
quote:
This would prove the coronavirus is significantly more contagious than the flu and among the most susceptible populations (pre-existing conditions) it would be significantly more deadly. The flu does not have this many asymptotic cases (at least that we know of).
However to your normal healthy population, it is equal or less than a bad flu.
It is significantly more contagious. Not significantly more dangerous.
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