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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:34 pm to craigbiggio
quote:
How is this 26 pages?
Next one of these conditional probability things gets posted, I'm throwing in Oscar and his dog and we'll see some monkey-flipping Q level volume and insanity.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:41 pm to slackster
quote:
It can be the silver ball. It can also be either of the golf balls
Holy shite, I leave for a hour and now there’s golf balls to consider? WTF OT?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:42 pm to PearlJam
Lets say the balls are hollow. Inside each ball is paper with a unique indentifier for that ball, G1B1, G2B1, G1B2, S1B2.
When you pull the first gold ball, what are the odds of each respective identifier being in that ball? 1/3...
Once this pull is made, but before you look at the identifier inside...what are the odds for each of the following identifiers being found in the next ball:
G1B1 - 1/3
G2B1 - 1/3
S1B2 - 1/3
2 gold, 1 silver
66.67% chance of gold
When you pull the first gold ball, what are the odds of each respective identifier being in that ball? 1/3...
Once this pull is made, but before you look at the identifier inside...what are the odds for each of the following identifiers being found in the next ball:
G1B1 - 1/3
G2B1 - 1/3
S1B2 - 1/3
2 gold, 1 silver
66.67% chance of gold
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 8:44 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:43 pm to tokenBoiler
50/50 chance. Hypo said you pulled out a gold ball and what is the chance out of the same box. It can only be gold or silver. That same box was originally constituted of one gold and one silver or both gold. All that 66 percent stuff is out because you pull from the same box.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:46 pm to 50_Tiger
66.7% * 75% = 50%
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:49 pm to Tortious
quote:
50/50 chance. Hypo said you pulled out a gold ball and what is the chance out of the same box. It can only be gold or silver. That same box was originally constituted of one gold and one silver or both gold. All that 66 percent stuff is out because you pull from the same box.
So we agree the silver and gold balls are two different balls, but we just group the two gold balls together as one solution?
That's where everyone falters. Which gold ball you pick in that box matters. They're two distinct solutions, albeit, both gold.
ETA - For example, change silver and gold to women and men. You've got a box with two men, John and James. You've got a box with two women, Lisa and Laura. You've got a mixed box with Jack and Jill.
You reach in and pick out a person, and it's a man. What are the chances the next person is a man?
Well, you either picked John, James, or Jack with the first pick. That leaves either John, James, or Jill as the remaining options, hence the 67%. Sure, it's either a man or a woman left, but the names matter.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:50 pm to slackster
quote:no it doesn't. The fact that there are 2 matters.
Which gold ball you pick in that box matters.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:52 pm to PearlJam
quote:
no it doesn't. The fact that there are 2 matters.
The order matters. This is all a permutation, not a combination. Picking gold first matters. Saying you'll pick gold first in that box regardless misses the point, especially when you get to bigger scenarios like 3 balls in 4 boxes (GGG, GGS, GSS, SSS that ell brought up).
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:53 pm to slackster
Aren’t y’all tired yet?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:53 pm to slackster
quote:
, doesn't change my take that there are 3 possible balls left for that second choice.
That's where you are wrong.
There is one ball left in the box.
It can not be one of the two paired silvers, it can not be the gold ball that was in the box with a silver ball, and it can not be the one in your hand that was pulled out.
It has to be the silver ball that was paired with the gold ball originally or a gold ball that was originally paired with the gold ball in your hand.
Two balls remain thus it's s 50/50 shot it's gold.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:53 pm to PearlJam
I love these threads because they get rehashed for hours and days. Both dumb people and trolls keep stating the obvious yet wrong answer is clearly correct, then people keep trying to refute them in different, correct ways, get tired of it all, curse the human race, and rage quit.
It's entertaining.
It's entertaining.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:54 pm to doubleb
Check out my edit doubled.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:54 pm to slackster
No it doesn't. It doesn't matter which one it is. It matters how many. They are grouped together in the same fricking box and you can't switch boxes.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:55 pm to doubleb
quote:
That's where you are wrong.
There is one ball left in the box.
It can not be one of the two paired silvers, it can not be the gold ball that was in the box with a silver ball, and it can not be the one in your hand that was pulled out.
It has to be the silver ball that was paired with the gold ball originally or a gold ball that was originally paired with the gold ball in your hand.
Two balls remain thus it's s 50/50 shot it's gold.
You're not using all the given information.
Best of luck picking the goat door with Monte Hall.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:55 pm to TH03
quote:
Aren’t y’all tired yet?
, I'm not trying to rehash the debate with PearlJam, I'm just trying to explain it to new folks. It's pretty clear neither of us are going to change our mind at this point. Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:56 pm to slackster
quote:
So we agree the silver and gold balls are two different balls, but we just group the two gold balls together as one solution?
I see your point, but the fact remains there is only one ball left in the box you pulled from and from which you must pull. It can only be gold or silver. Which of the actual balls it is not material to the hypo.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:56 pm to TH03
I’m tired. But I stopped 4 hours ago
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:57 pm to PearlJam
quote:
No it doesn't. It doesn't matter which one it is. It matters how many. They are grouped together in the same fricking box and you can't switch boxes.
Sigh. You agree you can pick one of three gold balls to start. You agree each gold ball has a distinct partner ball that would be remaining. For whatever reason, you disagree that there are three possible balls that could be left once you've picked a gold ball. Either of the two in the all gold box (2 different balls) or the silver ball (the 3rd ball).
Posted on 7/23/18 at 8:58 pm to slackster
But bruh, the boxes!
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