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Started By
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1
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:05 pm to Tortious
quote:
I see your point, but the fact remains there is only one ball left in the box you pulled from and from which you must pull. It can only be gold or silver. Which of the actual balls it is not material to the hypo
It is very important to the hypo. Three gold balls - G1, G2, and G3. One silver ball, S1. G1 and G2 are in one box, G3 is in the other with S1.
You pick a gold ball - it could be either G1, G2, or G3, right? Equal chance it could be any of the three, to be more specific.
If you picked G1, the remaining ball is G2. If you picked G2, the remaining ball is G1. If you picked G3, the remaining ball is S1.
So, 1/3 chance you're going to get G2 left, 1/3 chance you'll get G1, and 1/3 you'll get S1. 2/3 chance you'll get a gold ball left once we know you've taken a gold ball.
Tell me where I went wrong if you think it's 50%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:07 pm to PearlJam
You are treating statistics as some sort of magic that skews results as if by cosmic fiat. You aren’t understanding the actual mechanism that causes the differential probability.
You know the answer but you don’t get the why
You know the answer but you don’t get the why
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:08 pm to slackster
Only two balls could be left. Four were eliminated.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:08 pm to slackster
quote:It's really not.
It is very important to the hypo.
quote:That is all true and is decided at the time of the first pick. On the second pick there are only 2 possibilities. Either the ball you picked first left a gold ball in your box or it left a silver one.
If you picked G1, the remaining ball is G2. If you picked G2, the remaining ball is G1. If you picked G3, the remaining ball is S1.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:09 pm to CptRusty
quote:wrong
You know the answer but you don’t get the why
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:09 pm to doubleb
You is dumb af
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:11 pm to CptRusty
quote:no I'm not, I'm saying the statistics work on the first pick and the problem as presented only leaves 2 possible outcomes on the second pick. 1 of the outcomes has a higher probability because of how statistics worked at the time of the first pick.
You are treating statistics as some sort of magic that skews results as if by cosmic fiat.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:13 pm to PearlJam
This is the best way anyone has described it, and if you can’t understand that, you are retarded.
The probability isn’t 50/50.
Are you telling Scruffy that you wouldn’t bet that the second ball was gold every time in the OP’s scenario?
If not, you should never gamble.
quote:
Think of it this way people. Instead of 2 balls, each box has 50 balls. One has all gold, one has all silver, one has 49 silver and one gold.
If you draw a gold ball and have to pick another from the same box, the probability that it is going to be gold again is huge. Because the probability that you grabbed the one gold ball from the box of 49 silver is not good. Just because there are two boxes left, and drawing from one will definitely be gold while drawing from the other will definitely be silver, doesn't mean it's a 50/50 chance.
The same logic applies to the scenario with only two balls per box, just not on as grandiose a scale.
The probability isn’t 50/50.
Are you telling Scruffy that you wouldn’t bet that the second ball was gold every time in the OP’s scenario?
If not, you should never gamble.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 9:18 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:13 pm to PearlJam
quote:
It's really not.
Notice that you agree with the the 50% people the most. Just saying.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:14 pm to PearlJam
quote:
1 of the outcomes has a higher probability because of how statistics worked at the time of the first pick.
“How statistics worked” is vague hand waving language without concrete meaning. You have portrayed no understanding to the underlying “why”. You may as well have said magic.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:20 pm to slackster
You went wrong by making it ball specific.
You have a gold ball in your hand (either 1 or 2 or 3 doesn't matter now).
What could be left in the box? It can't be one of the two twin silvers, the G3 ball or the ball in your hand.
It's Either 1 or 2 ( but not both) or a silver ball.
You have a gold ball in your hand (either 1 or 2 or 3 doesn't matter now).
What could be left in the box? It can't be one of the two twin silvers, the G3 ball or the ball in your hand.
It's Either 1 or 2 ( but not both) or a silver ball.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:21 pm to PearlJam
quote:
no I'm not, I'm saying the statistics work on the first pick and the problem as presented only leaves 2 possible outcomes on the second pick. 1 of the outcomes has a higher probability because of how statistics worked at the time of the first pick.
This is wrong and the reason so many get confused.
There are 3 ways you can pick a gold ball first. Picking a gold ball first is the given. Once you pick a gold ball, give the fact there are 3 ways to do that, there are three different options for the second ball.
Idk what ball you chose, but I can unequivocally tell you the second ball will be either G1, G2, or S1. I cannot narrow it down any further than that. If you want to say it's either gold or silver, that's accurate too, but it fails to explain why the chances are still 67% that the next ball is gold.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:22 pm to doubleb
quote:
It's Either 1 or 2 ( but not both) or a silver ball.
So why do the two possible gold balls only have a 12.5% chance each? Why is silver so much more likely than either gold?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:23 pm to slackster
quote:
it fails to explain why the chances are still 67% that the next ball is gold.
“ because that’s how the statistics work”
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:23 pm to Scruffy
30 pages huh. You guys figure this one out yet?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:24 pm to doubleb
quote:
You went wrong by making it ball specific.
You have a gold ball in your hand (either 1 or 2 or 3 doesn't matter now).
What could be left in the box? It can't be one of the two twin silvers, the G3 ball or the ball in your hand.
It's Either 1 or 2 ( but not both) or a silver ball.
Look at my example with humans.
Alternatively, think about a deck of cards shuffled and spread out around the table. I know where the ace of spades is, and your job is to select a card to find it. You select a card with a 1/52 chance of finding the ace of spades. I then flip over 50 cards that aren't the ace of spades, leaving your card and one other card.
What are the chances that your card is the ace of spades?
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:35 pm to slackster
Here's what happened in the original post using cards.
You have three envelopes.
Envelope 1 has two aces.
Envelope 2 has an ace and a queen
Envelope 3 has two queens.
The dealer reached into a random envelope and pulls out an ace.
The odds that the remaining card is an ace or a queen is 50/50.
You have three envelopes.
Envelope 1 has two aces.
Envelope 2 has an ace and a queen
Envelope 3 has two queens.
The dealer reached into a random envelope and pulls out an ace.
The odds that the remaining card is an ace or a queen is 50/50.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:37 pm to doubleb
Work through each possible ace that you can pick, and then tell me what second card you pick as a result.
Seriously, it won’t take long. Write out all possibilities
Hint: all aces are a different suit, but as before you don’t know which one is in which envelope.
Seriously, it won’t take long. Write out all possibilities
Hint: all aces are a different suit, but as before you don’t know which one is in which envelope.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 9:40 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 9:43 pm to CptRusty
You aren't trying to pick a specific ace, you are trying to pick any ace.
Just like in the original problem. You aren't looking for a specific gold ball. You are looking for any gold ball.
Just like in the original problem. You aren't looking for a specific gold ball. You are looking for any gold ball.
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