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Message
re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:15 pm to ell_13
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:15 pm to ell_13
quote:
He's being ignorant to the "possibilities" argument but I'm not certain you understand his side either since you used the total balls argument recently...
Yeah my explanation wasn't sound for other examples, just so happened to work with this one
0
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:15 pm to LordSaintly
quote:At that point in the problem, they are the only 2 possible outcomes. The gold ball and corresponding box you picked either has a gold ball remaining in it or a silver ball. The probability was determined on the first selection, not at the second selection.
Because there are. "Silver ball" and "gold ball" are not the outcomes we are counting.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 4:17 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:20 pm to PearlJam
quote:
At that point in the problem, they are the only 2 possible outcomes. The gold ball and corresponding box you picked either has a gold ball in it or a silver ball. The probability was determined on the first selection, not at the second selection.
How is this any different than saying you've got a box with 99 gold balls and one silver ball. If you pick a gold ball first, are you suggesting there are only two outcomes for the next ball?
This goes back to what ell pointed out about my previous explanation - if it doesn't hold true for all examples, it's a shoddy way to explain it. The next ball is either gold or silver, but those are the two color possibilities of 3 total outcomes.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:20 pm to PearlJam
The probability is determined by first getting the probability of choosing a specific box that contains a gold combined with the probability that the next ball is gold, which yes, takes place prior to the second selection.
I said it already when showing examples with added balls and boxes: As long as the two options remain consistent, the probability that your second pick is the same as your first is 66.7%. That's true even with 100 balls per box and 101 boxes.
I said it already when showing examples with added balls and boxes: As long as the two options remain consistent, the probability that your second pick is the same as your first is 66.7%. That's true even with 100 balls per box and 101 boxes.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:21 pm to slackster
quote:He used "a" signifying a single selection this time.
How is this any different than saying you've got a box with 99 gold balls and one silver ball.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:22 pm to slackster
quote:because there are only 2 balls in each box and you have already eliminated one gold one. There is but one ball remaining in your box to select. It will be either gold or silver.
How is this any different than saying you've got a box with 99 gold balls and one silver ball. If you pick a gold ball first, are you suggesting there are only two outcomes for the next ball?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:23 pm to PearlJam
There are only two color possibilities. Well done, PearlJam. 
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:23 pm to 50_Tiger
How is this 26 pages? 
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:24 pm to PearlJam
quote:
because there are only 2 balls in each box and you have already eliminated one gold one. There is but one ball remaining in your box to select. It will be either gold or silver.
Yes. It will be either one of two possible gold balls or the one possible silver ball. Three possible balls.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:24 pm to 50_Tiger
Going to put this on my probability exam for my intro stat students this fall
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:24 pm to ell_13
You guys still in here arguing the semantics of the word "outcome"?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:26 pm to slackster
quote:one of them has either already been eliminated or you have chosen the other box. Those are the only two outcomes.
It will be either one of two possible gold balls
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:26 pm to monkeybutt
quote:
You guys still in here arguing the semantics of the word "outcome"?
Slow afternoon.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:27 pm to PearlJam
quote:
ne of them has either already been eliminated or you have chosen the other box. Those are the only two outcomes.
I'm done. I look forward to trouncing someone in the evening crew who says it's 50%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:27 pm to craigbiggio
quote:
How is this 26 pages?
Someone posted porn. Not telling you which page. Go find it. Admins still haven't so there's still time for you mate.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:29 pm to TheMailman
quote:
Everybody is wrong. Basically the question is asking what are the chances you picked the box with two gold balls from the start.
So the answer is 1/3 or 33%.
Correct
Everyone is stupid
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:32 pm to Powerman
quote:
Everybody is wrong. Basically the question is asking what are the chances you picked the box with two gold balls from the start.
So the answer is 1/3 or 33%.
Correct
Everyone is stupid
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:34 pm to monkeybutt
Or maybe I'm wrong
Don't really care to think much more about this one
Don't really care to think much more about this one
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:37 pm to Powerman
quote:
Or maybe I'm wrong
Don't really care to think much more about this one
You agreed with the mailman. Should've stopped right there. There's a reason he delivers mail for a living for God's sake!
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 4:38 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:38 pm to craigbiggio
quote:
How is this 26 pages?
Because the OT is stupid but not self-aware enough to realize it's stupid.
At least Forrest Gump knew he wasn't a smart man.
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