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Started By
Message
re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:55 pm to TheIndulger
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:55 pm to TheIndulger
quote:I do. That is how the problem is solved.
The way I look at it is, if the ball comes up gold, it’s more likely that it came from the box with two gold balls, don’t you think?
0
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:55 pm to PearlJam
quote:
Not exactly.
Yes. Exactly. Precisely. In the most binding terms possible: yes.
quote:
there aren't 3, only 2 at that point
Absolutely incorrect.
If I pull G1 from B1 - What will my second pull be?
If I pull G2 from B1 - What will my second pull be?
If I pull G1 from B2 - What will my second pull be?
...each of those scenarios is unique, and must be accounted for uniquely.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:55 pm to TheIndulger
quote:
The way I look at it is, if the ball comes up gold, it’s more likely that it came from the box with two gold balls, don’t you think?
You're right, but it's even easier than that. If you pull a gold ball, you know it had to come from one of two boxes. Those boxes had 4 distinct balls in them. You've taken out one. The next ball is one of 3 balls you haven't seen yet, 2 of which are still gold.
Voila! 67%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:58 pm to 50_Tiger
that was a final for a probability class at lsu.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:58 pm to slackster
quote:And you've lost me. This isn't generally the rule though. It only works because you only have one "other" option per box once you pull. It doesn't work for my examples so this math isn't reliable.
The next ball is one of 3 balls you haven't seen yet, 2 of which are still gold.
Voila! 67%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:59 pm to slackster
Slack couldnt you settle the argument by doing 6 chose 2 combinations and eliminate all combinations that do not have a Gold ball come out first to satisfy his argument? 
Edit: 6 choose 2 is 15 total combinations.
Edit: 6 choose 2 is 15 total combinations.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:00 pm to ell_13
That's my point. He is coming to the right answer the wrong way. What started this is someone saying on the second pull there are 3 possible outcomes. That ignores the reality of the problem for theoretical ease.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:00 pm to PearlJam
quote:
This ignores the fact that you have preselected the box and will only pull the remaining ball from that box. They weren't all in the same box and we're paired off. Once you know you have a gold, only two options remain on your next pull.
No, it doesn't.
The box won't chance, but I still don't know what box I have. I could have chosen one of 3 different gold possibilities, leaving me with one of 3 different balls remaining.
Your focus is on the item that trips people up and results in answers of 50%. Some kind of way you've proven to understand it's 67%, but you won't listen to any other logic.
And to be clear, I've said you were correct this entire time, but saying there are 3 possible outcomes is correct too. I'd argue it's more correct.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:02 pm to PearlJam
quote:He was there but not before. Counting the number of balls is wrong. Counting the number of possibilities, though, works and would work in a situation with more balls/boxes although it would take more time to consider them all.
That's my point. He is coming to the right answer the wrong way.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:02 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:not sure why they're really arguing it any more, they've noted that it's semantics.
Slack couldnt you settle the argument by doing 6 chose 2 combinations and eliminate all combinations that do not have a Gold ball come out first to satisfy his argument?
Edit: 6 choose 2 is 15 total combinations.
It's like saying a box as 100 balls, 99 gold and 1 silver. Pearl Jam is saying when you choose a ball there are 2 outcomes, it can be gold or silver, which is technically correct.
That's it, end that part of the discussion. Let's move on to the next thread!!!
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:02 pm to slackster
quote:Wrong. You only have 1 of 2 possibilities. Silver or gold. Just because you don't know which gold ball you picked and eliminated, doesn't change the fact that you are selecting 1 remaining ball from your selected box that will either be gold or silver.
The box won't chance, but I still don't know what box I have. I could have chosen one of 3 different gold possibilities, leaving me with one of 3 different balls remaining.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:05 pm to 50_Tiger
I'm not doing your homework.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:05 pm to PearlJam
quote:
What started this is someone saying on the second pull there are 3 possible outcomes
Because there are. "Silver ball" and "gold ball" are not the outcomes we are counting.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:05 pm to slackster
quote:He's being ignorant to the "possibilities" argument but I'm not certain you understand his side either since you used the total balls argument recently...
saying there are 3 possible outcomes is correct too. I'd argue it's more correct.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:07 pm to shel311
quote:
Pearl Jam is saying when you choose a ball there are 2 outcomes, it can be gold or silver, which is technically correct.
No one is saying he's incorrect, what we're saying is that this explanation glosses over the reason for the skewed probability of choosing gold over silver.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:07 pm to PearlJam
quote:Say "one silver ball or one gold ball" jfc.
You only have 1 of 2 possibilities. Silver or gold.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:08 pm to ell_13
quote:
And you've lost me. This isn't generally the rule though. It only works because you only have one "other" option per box once you pull. It doesn't work for my examples so this math isn't reliable.
I see what you're saying. Let me rephrase for the GGG, GGS, GSS, SSS example.
There are 6 ways to pick a gold ball first.
GGG
GGG
GGG
GGS
GSG
GSS
4 of those 6 possible outcomes results in a gold ball on the second pull too. The order matters, which is why we've given them a name in may of the explanations. PearlJam's logic would suggest the order doesn't matter. His explanation of the possible outcomes suggest all three GGG count as one. It should be a permutation, not a combination.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:09 pm to 50_Tiger
66.7 percent
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:09 pm to PearlJam
quote:
that will either be one of the gold balls or the silver ball.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 4:11 pm to slackster
quote:Exactly. When I first presented it, someone (don't remember the poster) said, "5/8, retard".
There are 6 ways to pick a gold ball first.
GGG
GGG
GGG
GGS
GSG
GSS
4 of those 6 possible outcomes results in a gold ball on the second pull too. The order matters, which is why we've given them a name in may of the explanations. PearlJam's logic would suggest the order doesn't matter. His explanation of the possible outcomes suggest all three GGG count as one. It should be a permutation, not a combination.
He was using the total ball method. Doesn't work.This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 4:12 pm
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