re: Snow Tease for Baton Rouge (Saturday) UPDATE (1/20)

That latest NAM model shows a midnight high temp of 34 for BR Friday, falling to freezing by 3am and staying at or below all day. The moisture also runs later keeping freezing rain in our area much of the day Friday. So a more prolonged event rather than clearing out and 40s after

Still much can and will hopefully change, but man I do not want the 18z/12z solution

So how much fun will I have landing at MSY on Friday and driving to BR metro?

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i don't see any official meteorologists mentioning the NAM, only the majors (GFS and ECMWF), anyone know why the NAM isn't being discussed at all?

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Because odds are the GFS and EURO are much more likely to be correct, climatologically speaking. They don’t want to start sounding the alarm this soon based on the NAM out of fear for being slammed on the OT if they’re wrong.

Yea but he still has to worry about that black ice. I once slipped and fell on that stuff before and got back up without my wallet. It’s sneaky sneaky.

Trying to figure out if Ill be able to fly OUT of MSY on Friday.

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That latest NAM model shows a midnight high temp of 34 for BR Friday, falling to freezing by 3am and staying at or below all day. The moisture also runs later keeping freezing rain in our area much of the day Friday. So a more prolonged event rather than clearing out and 40s after

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This is the trend I have been watching and judging the NAM against other models.

Timing of the rain was a question, but not as much of one now. The two rounds of rain have been in play for a while now. The issue was that the second round was moving through early enough that it got out of the area before temps dropped below freezing. That progression of the precip has gradually slowed down, and the temp dip has both stayed the same as far as time goes, and been able to make it farther South. That trend has held over several runs and is why we see nearly 100% agreement across the ensembles in GEFS now versus this time yesterday.

ETA: by "nearly 100% agreement...." I mean that we are seeing freezing rain somewhere within South Louisiana on most all of the ensembles now, not necessarily agreement as to where or exactly when.

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The question is which one gets the freezing line/time right?

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Now the shite gets fun.

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Duke if you had to guess, what can we expect for East Baton Rouge and Livingston Parishes?

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I'm thinking some freezing rain happens, but mostly a cold rain event but dude, this is a tough one to crack.

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