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Started By
Message
re: Snow Tease for Baton Rouge (Saturday) UPDATE (1/20)
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:15 am to lsugolfredman
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:15 am to lsugolfredman
I already stocked up on toilet paper this morning
1
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:16 am to The Boat
quote:
FV3
I haven't even thought to look at it for the Winter weather.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:16 am to jimbeam
quote:
I already stocked up on toilet paper this morning
No milk and bread? Amateur.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:20 am to LegendInMyMind
I just can’t wait to cook a gumbo all day Friday since I’m gonna be off. Going to be a perfect gumbo slow cooking kind of day!
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:21 am to LegendInMyMind
I already have a milk cow and a couple sacks of flour as well 
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:22 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
16 of 20 ensemble runs within the 16z GEFS are calling for some amount of frozen precip in S. Louisiana. That's a good many more than yesterday.
To compare to what the ensembles were showing yesterday:
quote:
GEFS ensemble products are split 13-5 against any measurable snowfall in South Lousiana.
Ignore my math. I don't know why I only counted 18 yesterday.
So, we've gone from most showing no frozen precip for South Louisiana to most showing a large swath in the area getting freezing rain in the span of 24 hours.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:23 am to LegendInMyMind
Looks like a trend to me!
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:31 am to TDsngumbo
And, for what it's worth, on the 12z GEFS run which is still running but far enough along to see, 18 of 20 ensembles now show some amount of frozen precip in S. Louisiana.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:32 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
And, for what it's worth, on the 12z GEFS run which is still running but far enough along to see, 18 of 20 ensembles now show some amount of frozen precip in S. Louisiana.
Goddamnit
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:32 am to heatom2
Roads are gonna be completely fricked on Friday.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:35 am to LegendInMyMind
Hmm… it’s only Tuesday but the trends do look to be for some type of ice event for south Louisiana. Still a lot of time for this to change, though.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:36 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Still a lot of time for this to change, though.
A fricking eternity for a Southeastern Winter weather event.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:37 am to lsupride87
quote:
Looks like it’s only going to be below freezing for a couple of hours then quickly get back to the 40s
Its fluid baw, with potential for all day 30s Friday. Snow is off the board but still have some freezing rain/sleet potential for BR and the Northshore.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:38 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Models continue to struggle with resolving the track of a shortwave that`s yet to develop.
The setup will be moisture overrunning cold air already in place. How far north over the CWA that moisture moves will generally determine the chance for freezing rain or sleet.
Say those 2 forms of frozen precip as model soundings at BTR and MCB show a low/mid level warm nose that will melt any flakes aloft. One limiting factor also seen on those soundings is dry air just above the surface. There`s certainly some potential to continue to monitor but this still looks like a near game day decision.
This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 11:40 am
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:40 am to Duke
Seems that the majority of snow events in the Deep South called for snow being off the board. If they calling for ice I wouldn’t be surprised to see some snow. Hell they had flurries in Houma this past weekend when nothing was supposed to be possible south of the lake
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:46 am to bayoudude
quote:Based on what I've observed since 2014, the mets do a good job of predicting whether the precip will fall as snow or rain.
Hell they had flurries in Houma this past weekend when nothing was supposed to be possible south of the lake
Maybe someone can weigh in on why the column was colder allowing for flakes with warmer ground temps on Sunday vs. the below freezing ground temps and warm nose that we'll see upcoming.
What accounts for the difference? Different type of storm setup?
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:47 am to bayoudude
Its what is going on 2000 feet up. Warm air will be pushed in up over a surface layer of cold air. Its just going to be above freezing above the ground and once snow melts, it cant come back as anything but sleet.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 11:52 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Maybe someone can weigh in on why the column was colder allowing for flakes with warmer ground temps on Sunday vs. the below freezing ground temps and warm nose that we'll see upcoming.
Last week was an upper low (cold air aloft). Provided a source of lift and was cold aloft.
This is going to be a front basically, very cold air with it but shallow. Flow is going to push warm gulf air over the front (cold air is dense and stays below the warm) and you have a situation where youre risking an ice storm.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 12:10 pm to Duke
quote:
and once snow melts, it cant come back as anything but sleet.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 1:49 pm to The Boat
Where we at in this?
Snowpocalypse?
Snowpocalypse?
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