re: Significant Friday evening east Texas severe weather threat

My buddy that is rolling with me has to work till noon. I'm going to see if he can get out a little earlier but he's saying it's a no go with work so far. Just hoping the storm stalls for an hour or two right now. Not holding my breath.

Fortunately I got new tires today so I won't be hydroplaning as easy as the previous set.

Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
@SteveWAFB
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3h
Replying to
@SteveWAFB
The inital line of storms early Saturday morning may come with at least a low-end severe weather threat. SPC has a Level 1/5 (marginal) risk from Baton Rouge westward. Damaging winds are the primary concern.



Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
@SteveWAFB
·
3h
While the news is good for the game itself, morning tailgates & tailgate setup could be a mess. Not only is rain likely, it could be heavy. WPC shows totals averaging 0.75"-2" across our area, locally higher possible. Level 1/4 (marginal) risk of flooding.

The most obvious failure mode, in regards to pre-frontal discrete development, for tomorrow is the cap not holding and allowing for a messy storm mode that lines out quicker/earlier.

That's still a possibility, though I don't think it is a likely one.

It would still result in embedded or semi discrete supercells that would have really good parameters to work with. It will eventually go linear, anyway, but with the amount of shear there will still be a tornado threat in the line itself.

The broken line nature of this system heading into Louisiana is of some concern.

This is in the Alexandria area around 10pm:


A sounding for the same time period from the NAM is similar, with higher SRH.

This is what the HRRR shows when it gets into LA:


It is similar for the NAM.

It'll be messy, but it will have good ingredients to work with. It still looks like pre-frontal activity will still be going on well into LA with at least embedded and/or semi-discrete supercells with the line playing catchup behind them. The line will eventually fill in, but it will take time.

Just because you're in the yellow, or Slight Risk, area doesn't mean a strong tornado won't be possible. It will be an overnight threat, so have a way to get warnings that will wake you up.

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On the bright side, it looks like most all the rain should be done in BR by kickoff.

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I'd definitely throw something heavy on the smoker, maybe a whole hog.

Got the MOD upgrade.

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Got the MOD upgrade.

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Don’t see a moderate risk too often in early November.

The HRRR has shown that little line firing with discrete/semi-discrete cells firing to the South and moving NE and continuing to fire.

Anything to take some of the high end potential off is good, but I wouldn't be fooled by the early convection. So far, it isn't doing anything unexpected.