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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:05 pm to yurintroubl
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:05 pm to yurintroubl
quote:
I've already added an H to my slide ruler
Yurin...do you know how to use a slide rule?
1
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:05 pm to rds dc
Anybody over towards tallow Creek worried about this rain?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:05 pm to rds dc
quote:
Significant eastward shift, could keep heaviest rain out of Louisiana, if it verifies.
People are going to lose their damn mind about a "nothingburger" in SELA when the entirety of the "miss" will be less than 60 miles or so. I'll never understand that mindset.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:06 pm to slackster
quote:
People are going to lose their damn mind about a "nothingburger" in SELA when the entirety of the "miss" will be less than 60 miles or so. I'll never understand that mindset.
People love being angry about shite.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:06 pm to slackster
Please keep sliding East...AL border...pretty please
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:06 pm to JakeFromStateFarm
quote:
Like a tree fell through the middle of my house, destroying it “homeless”
Had the same thing happen to us in Katrina. Sorry to hear that, but like I said, you'll be fine in BR.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:07 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Have a tee time at Fallen Oak on wednesday. Should I cancel?
frick no. Fallen Oak is fantastic. You'll have a great time!
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:08 pm to slackster
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:08 pm to Duke
quote:
People love being angry about shite.
NHC gives you a cone. The storm stays within the cone for the entirety of the forecast. People are pissed at the cone.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:09 pm to Duke
quote:I'm fricking ecstatic right now. 7am tomorrow morning may be a different story, but at least I can sleep good tonight
People love being angry about shite.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:09 pm to slackster
Slack, I will roll with the punches, but it’s a strong possibility. I expect the intensity models to continue to trend upwards. Especially if it doesn’t make landfall at mouth of river and stays over water longer.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:09 pm to slackster
quote:
NHC gives you a cone. The storm stays within the cone for the entirety of the forecast. People are pissed at the cone.
They really need to get rid of the center line
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:10 pm to Duke
Just to cover all bases.
What possible factors could contribute to Sally making more of a west track as opposed to the current track?
Just so we can understand what’s at play and how likely/unlikely it is for the track to change back.
What possible factors could contribute to Sally making more of a west track as opposed to the current track?
Just so we can understand what’s at play and how likely/unlikely it is for the track to change back.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:13 pm to slackster
quote:
People are going to lose their damn mind about a "nothingburger" in SELA when the entirety of the "miss" will be less than 60 miles or so. I'll never understand that mindset.
Still a long ways to go but there is currently the potential for 30"+ totals with this system. The current NHC track would most likely keep those out over the Gulf.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:13 pm to rmnldr
Appreciate all the anonymous knowledge in this thread.
I run an insurance agency in Gulf Shores...selfishly, what can/should we expect? Flooding? High winds? Storm surge? Catastrophic damage? Or...nothingburger?
Too early to tell?
I run an insurance agency in Gulf Shores...selfishly, what can/should we expect? Flooding? High winds? Storm surge? Catastrophic damage? Or...nothingburger?
Too early to tell?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:13 pm to rmnldr
quote:
What possible factors could contribute to Sally making more of a west track as opposed to the current track?
Ridge that starts building over the midsouth is a little stronger than expected and puts a stronger west push on Sally short term tomorrow. This doesn't strike me as likely as it will be getting eroded pretty quickly and shifting toward the SE, but possible.
If the models/NHC are too slow with the movement in the next 18-24 hours, it suggests the track is going to go west. That's what you're looking for.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:14 pm to BamaCoaster
Yes
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:14 pm to slackster
quote:TBH, I'm a little pissed that the eastward shift has killed our rain chances over here in Watson. Went from a good 2+ inches forcasted this AM to just over a half inch this PM. Not upset at all about missing the storm itself. Just need a little rain up here in the LP.
People are pissed at the cone.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:15 pm to Duke
What does this mean for Slidell?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:15 pm to rmnldr
quote:
What possible factors could contribute to Sally making more of a west track as opposed to the current track?
Speed.
It's going west, but how far west it gets before it goes north is the question. Using the NHC forecast coordinates is a nice tool for that. 12 hours from now it should be at 87.3W
If it's further west than that, a more westward landfall is on the table.
I know that seems pretty basic, but that's the best you can do unless you know how to read the strength of ridges in weather balloon data.
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