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Cosmo
Houston Astros Fan
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
101980 posts

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
quote:

I picked the wrong damn year to build a house


There are storms every year in september


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60
Friedbrie
LSU Fan
Abita Springs
Member since Jun 2018
761 posts
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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
That things about to go beast mode


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19
deltaland
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Mar 2011
57912 posts
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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
HWRF has it as a strong cat 1 almost making landfall at Pensacola then turning west and skirting the entire coast as a hurricane and landfall around Bay St Louis

HMON has it as a Cat 2 into Destin area

Euro is agreeing with the HWRF on track but a weaker system

GFS is showing nothingburger


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rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
16603 posts

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
quote:


Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
3m
[#NerdTweet] Radar suggests that the new thunderstorm north of Andros Island has become a vortical hot tower, rotating in the mid-levels on the east side of the developing surface low. Features like these can speed up the organization of the surface circulation if they persist.


These supercell like storms help to consolidate the low level spin allowing for the mid-level circulation to reach down to the surface. This has been a textbook example of how persistent deep convection drives development.


Adam39
Member since Nov 2019
32 posts

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
I apologize for such a ridiculous question, but if it was to come to Louisiana any idea of the landfall date.

Next Wednesday? Possibly next Friday?

Any sort of timeline would be greatly appreciated.


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Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
29748 posts
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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
quote:

Primary concern with this system appears to be the potential for it to move slow or stall near the coast. 12z Euro has totals over 20" and that is always a red flag.



Image: https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020091112/ecmwf_z500a_us_4.png


Image: https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091112/gfs_z500a_us_13.png


The upper low that would have been our cold front this week finally ejects east and erodes the Bermuda high as Paulette turns north into that weakness and the ridge doesn't build back in immediately.

Rain definitely the primary concern with this sort of scenario.


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NorthEndZone
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2008
7019 posts
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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
quote:

it does get stuck in no man's land by Tuesday.


It looks like from the models that it moves only ~250-275 miles in 48 hours from Monday to Wednesday. The old rule of thumb of 100 / speed for rainfall in inches would be between 15 and 20 in that case. Not good for wherever is under the max amount of rainfall.


dukke v
LSU Fan
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
178969 posts

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Rain event for the gulf coast.............


geauxtigers87
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2011
21156 posts
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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
quote:

Rain event for the gulf coast.............


frick evacuating now


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261
Bucktail1
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2015
2259 posts
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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
I feel better now


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40
chicano12
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2010
812 posts

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Shut up whore.


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92
deltaland
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Mar 2011
57912 posts
 Online 

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
quote:

The ridge pushed Katrina


I got a bingo square


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80
deltaland
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Mar 2011
57912 posts
 Online 

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
quote:

Asking rds or Duke to explain dropsonde graph should be on there


Or asking where will Jeff Petrioski be
Or bitching about how Cantore doesn’t get into the good stuff anymore
Asking for a link to storm chaser streams after it’s been posted a dozen times


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00
mikearch
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2007
160 posts

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
I picked the wrong damned year to stop sniffing glue!


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
29748 posts
 Online 

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
quote:

It looks like from the models that it moves only ~250-275 miles in 48 hours from Monday to Wednesday. The old rule of thumb of 100 / speed for rainfall in inches would be between 15 and 20 in that case. Not good for wherever is under the max amount of rainfall.



Image: https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091112/gfs_uv250_us_17.png


It's going to have an upper high sitting just east of it too. Would set up for outflow to be enhanced and upper divergence with a plume of tropical moisture pumping in at the surface is a recipe for efficient rainmaking. Column appears to be pretty saturated too on the east side.



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Klingler7
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
5393 posts

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
3:00 CDT : current pressure at MIA ( Miami) is 1009.5 mb ( 29.81). -.07 in/hg past 3 hours.
This post was edited on 9/11 at 3:08 pm


lsuman25
LSU Fan
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
32836 posts

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
NHC will initiate advisories on the area of low pressure area east of Florida at 5 PM EDT (2100 UTC).


TheFonz
LSU Fan
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
14261 posts

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding


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40
deltaland
Mississippi St. Fan
Member since Mar 2011
57912 posts
 Online 

re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Looks like I picked the wrong year to quit amphetamines
This post was edited on 9/11 at 3:27 pm


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70
upgrayedd
Lamar Fan
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
111052 posts
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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
I gotta be honest, I could use some rain right now


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