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Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:19 pm to rds dc
That things about to go beast mode
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:27 pm to doubleb
HWRF has it as a strong cat 1 almost making landfall at Pensacola then turning west and skirting the entire coast as a hurricane and landfall around Bay St Louis
HMON has it as a Cat 2 into Destin area
Euro is agreeing with the HWRF on track but a weaker system
GFS is showing nothingburger
HMON has it as a Cat 2 into Destin area
Euro is agreeing with the HWRF on track but a weaker system
GFS is showing nothingburger
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:29 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
3m
[#NerdTweet] Radar suggests that the new thunderstorm north of Andros Island has become a vortical hot tower, rotating in the mid-levels on the east side of the developing surface low. Features like these can speed up the organization of the surface circulation if they persist.
These supercell like storms help to consolidate the low level spin allowing for the mid-level circulation to reach down to the surface. This has been a textbook example of how persistent deep convection drives development.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:31 pm to rds dc
I apologize for such a ridiculous question, but if it was to come to Louisiana any idea of the landfall date.
Next Wednesday? Possibly next Friday?
Any sort of timeline would be greatly appreciated.
Next Wednesday? Possibly next Friday?
Any sort of timeline would be greatly appreciated.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:31 pm to rds dc
quote:
Primary concern with this system appears to be the potential for it to move slow or stall near the coast. 12z Euro has totals over 20" and that is always a red flag.
The upper low that would have been our cold front this week finally ejects east and erodes the Bermuda high as Paulette turns north into that weakness and the ridge doesn't build back in immediately.
Rain definitely the primary concern with this sort of scenario.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:31 pm to Duke
quote:
it does get stuck in no man's land by Tuesday.
It looks like from the models that it moves only ~250-275 miles in 48 hours from Monday to Wednesday. The old rule of thumb of 100 / speed for rainfall in inches would be between 15 and 20 in that case. Not good for wherever is under the max amount of rainfall.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:32 pm to rds dc
Rain event for the gulf coast.............
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:34 pm to dukke v
quote:
Rain event for the gulf coast.............
frick evacuating now
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:34 pm to dukke v
I feel better now
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:34 pm to dukke v
Shut up whore.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:35 pm to michael corleone
quote:
The ridge pushed Katrina
I got a bingo square
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:38 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Asking rds or Duke to explain dropsonde graph should be on there
Or asking where will Jeff Petrioski be
Or bitching about how Cantore doesn’t get into the good stuff anymore
Asking for a link to storm chaser streams after it’s been posted a dozen times
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:39 pm to Duke
I picked the wrong damned year to stop sniffing glue!
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:41 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
It looks like from the models that it moves only ~250-275 miles in 48 hours from Monday to Wednesday. The old rule of thumb of 100 / speed for rainfall in inches would be between 15 and 20 in that case. Not good for wherever is under the max amount of rainfall.
It's going to have an upper high sitting just east of it too. Would set up for outflow to be enhanced and upper divergence with a plume of tropical moisture pumping in at the surface is a recipe for efficient rainmaking. Column appears to be pretty saturated too on the east side.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:04 pm to rds dc
3:00 CDT : current pressure at MIA ( Miami) is 1009.5 mb ( 29.81). -.07 in/hg past 3 hours.
This post was edited on 9/11/20 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:20 pm to Klingler7
NHC will initiate advisories on the area of low pressure area east of Florida at 5 PM EDT (2100 UTC).
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:22 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:26 pm to mikearch
Looks like I picked the wrong year to quit amphetamines
This post was edited on 9/11/20 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:27 pm to rds dc
I gotta be honest, I could use some rain right now
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