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Started By
Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:02 pm to geauxtigers87
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:02 pm to geauxtigers87
quote:
It is uncertain whether the large burst of convection over the
center will continue and cause the depression to become a tropical
storm before reaching Florida. However, since it is only a 5 kt
increase from the current intensity, it is possible that tropical
storm conditions could still occur along the southeast Florida coast
late tonight, and a tropical storm watch has been issued.
Otherwise, after the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
steady intensification is expected through the weekend due to
expected light wind shear and very warm water. Some increase in
shear could occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico but that is
uncertain at this time. The first forecast will stay conservative
and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not
be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once
other models better initialize the depression.
An uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 285/7. Strong
ridging over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the
cyclone to the west-northwest then northwest as a mid-latitude
trough erodes the western side of the ridge over the weekend. The
forecast gets tricky after that because the bulk of the guidance
suggests the trough isn't deep enough to recurve the system, and
instead it gets left behind, moving slowly westward early next week
due to weak ridging over the southern Plains. The NHC forecast is
near the corrected-consensus guidance. The uncertainty in the
track forecast is much larger than normal after 48 hours, as small
changes in the forecast steering flow could result in this system
moving over the northern Gulf Coast faster and to the northeast of
what is shown here. As a result, the risk of seeing direct impacts
from this system extends well outside the cone of uncertainty, even
more so than usual in this case.
This post was edited on 9/11/20 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:09 pm to LaBR4
quote:
He also used a Juvenile Reference, said it was going in Slow Motion, put in a Slow Motion for me.
But does he Like it like that?
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:09 pm to Duke
quote:
The uncertainty in the
track forecast is much larger than normal after 48 hours, as small
changes in the forecast steering flow could result in this system
moving over the northern Gulf Coast faster and to the northeast of
what is shown here. As a result, the risk of seeing direct impacts
from this system extends well outside the cone of uncertainty, even
more so than usual in this case.
I feel like we are getting a lot of this, this year.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:11 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
I feel like we are getting a lot of this, this year.
I fear getting too technical but it's been what we call a "shite show" in scientific terms.
This post was edited on 9/11/20 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:11 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
ETA - It is 19. Some sites are already showing an AL19.
Hey Nineteen...
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:17 pm to Bestbank Tiger
I know people rag on tigerdroppings about wish casting but go check out Storm2k. Bunch of people calling this Katrina 2.0
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:17 pm to Duke
quote:
I fear getting too technical but it's been what we call a "shite show" in scientific terms.
Is it really because of the lack of airplane data, or something else is to blame?
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:18 pm to rds dc
man that orange one can straight up frick itself
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:19 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Stu Ostro
@StuOstro
#96L is now #TD19, and it has #ThatLook
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:21 pm to dukke v
quote:
dukke v
quote:
Rain event for the gulf coast.............
Everybody prepare for Katrina 2.0 now
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:23 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Is it really because of the lack of airplane data, or something else is to blame?
I took a crap on an indian burial mound.
Sorry. My bad.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:24 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
But does he Like it like that?
Dr. McNabb just said when Felicia Combs starts working that back he don't know how to act.
Also, it could be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall, and to expect 12 inches
LaBR4
Interim President
This post was edited on 9/11/20 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:24 pm to dukke v
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/18/21 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:25 pm to WestCoastAg
I wish this year would end already
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:27 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Is it really because of the lack of airplane data, or something else is to blame?
It's mostly been multiple storms near one another and just big arse waves that had multiple centers to eventually wrangle together.
The plane data isn't helping, especially over the oceans where we don't have a ton of data to work with but the big picture steering hasn't been super complicated really.
What is strange is how poorly models have done at forming systems up. The Euro, typically the creme of the crop, still didn't want to turn Laura into anything four days out. The GFS needed Hanna to practically be a hurricane before it would pick it up as a tropical system.
Why that may be happening is above my paygrade.
This post was edited on 9/11/20 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:29 pm to dukke v
quote:
Rain event for the gulf coast.............
Have you not caused enough suffering in your life
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:30 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
#ThatLook
sure does
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:30 pm to LaBR4
quote:
and to expect 12 inches
that's what I say too... but then I also follow that up with "it's very localized" and "it happened in an unpopulated area with no testing equipment"
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:37 pm to rt3
quote:
"it's very localized"
LaBR4
Interim President
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:40 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
I know people rag on tigerdroppings about wish casting
I'd take the core weather posters from TD and battle any site. We bomb down on 'em, we comin' through
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