re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding

but peej said it didn’t have time to strengthen.

P.s. I’ve noticed that my radar images appear really large when looking at the thread on a desktop/laptop. I apologize for that. I’m not sure how to resize them in Imgur.

Weak is good. Let's hope Euro is right about strength. That track of 24 hours to move about 100 miles would be brutal rain and surge.

ETA: From 48 hours (Monday morning) to 96 hours (Wednesday morning) the Euro has Sally moving from south of Gulf Shores to only just north of Lake P.

That is less than 200 miles in 48 hours or about 4 mph average speed. That's a fast walk or slow jog speed.

Duke, if you don't mind, can you explain what changed between the NHC discussion you quoted at the top of page 6 in this thread yesterday and the forecast track as of 1pm today where the storm is now going further NW instead of NE? Is it the high pressure forming to the east? (Relevant text quoted below.)

quote:

---

near the corrected-consensus guidance. The uncertainty in the track forecast is much larger than normal after 48 hours, as small changes in the forecast steering flow could result in this system moving over the northern Gulf Coast faster and to the northeast of what is shown here.

---

quote:

---

Duke, if you don't mind, can you explain what changed between the NHC discussion you quoted at the top of page 6 in this thread yesterday and the forecast track as of 1pm today where the storm is now going further NW instead of NE? Is it the high pressure forming to the east? (Relevant text quoted below.)

---

I touched on it in my post near the bottom of the last page. What was being considered was a stronger storm early plus a trough being a little farther south that would have grabbed Sally early and pushed north on it. That's still a possible thing but looks less likely as things are evolving today.

quote:

---

Whoa...oh...oh...oh... Sally "That Girl" Whoa...oh...oh...oh... Sally, whew, "That Girl"

---

“I push her the bed and then you can bet”
“In between her legs was real real wet”

Sally

quote:

---

Duke, if you don't mind, can you explain what changed between the NHC discussion you quoted at the top of page 6 in this thread yesterday and the forecast track as of 1pm today where the storm is now going further NW instead of NE? Is it the high pressure forming to the east? (Relevant text quoted below.)

quote:

---

near the corrected-consensus guidance. The uncertainty in the track forecast is much larger than normal after 48 hours, as small changes in the forecast steering flow could result in this system moving over the northern Gulf Coast faster and to the northeast of what is shown here.

---

---

while I'm not Duke... I think I can point out at least 1 of the issues

the low level circulation (which is what the NHC tracks as the storm center) is moving back south to align itself more with the mid-level center... which would end up moving the track a bit more west

but then the steering flows in the Gulf over the next few days are very weak so the storm has little to push it around and give it direction and the NHC can't pick up on where it will go if there's nothing to give the storm direction

Are you blind dude?

Do you live a bubble? You don't think the rest of Louisiana cares about SW LA? The frick?

quote:

---

Plaquemines parish gonna get it this time?

---

We're at the consider getting to higher ground stage for your part of the world. At least have a plan. Hopefully it'll be for nothing.