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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/12/20 at 6:53 am to deltaland
GFS this run is very close to LA but turns north sort of like Georges
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:00 am to NorthEndZone
Just an observation but seems TD19 wants to stay on the southern part of the cone for now at least.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:12 am to NorthEndZone
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:13 am to lsuman25
quote:
Just an observation but seems TD19 wants to stay on the southern part of the cone for now at least.
The 7:00 am update is nearly outside of the original cone and, given the convective appearance this morning, it is likely that we see the center continue to try and consolidate to the SW. The current position is on extreme SW side of the 00z EPS spread but the 06z GEFS looks pretty good. Both of those show a track a bit SW of the current NHC track.
00z Euro EPS
06z GEFS
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:15 am to rds dc
Not what I wanted to read first thing this morning, but thanks for the update.
Any intensity forecasts?
Any intensity forecasts?
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:16 am to rds dc
Crap
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:17 am to rds dc
Well.... frick. Definately not liking the placement of that black line in the middle.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:18 am to rds dc
quote:
it is likely that we see the center continue to try and consolidate to the SW. The current position is on extreme SW side of the 00z EPS spread but the 06z GEFS looks pretty good. Both of those show a track a bit SW of the current NHC track.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:20 am to rds dc
Not an ideal track for SELA. I just finished putting all my stuff back outside after the last threat. 
Just noticed how slow this sucker is moving. That’s not good.
Just noticed how slow this sucker is moving. That’s not good.
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 7:23 am
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:26 am to deaconjones35
Here. We. Go.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:27 am to deaconjones35
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:31 am to rds dc
Latest projected rainfall totals from WPC
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:34 am to rds dc
I’m not liking this southward trend
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:35 am to purple18
Zack Fradella saying right now he’s predicting landfall at the mouth of the river as a possible Cat 1 then moving over Nola, a bit westwardly of current NHC track because he expects the center of storm to follow the convection south for now as it enters the gulf
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:36 am to TigerNAtux
quote:
Any intensity forecasts?
Impossible to say but the models show anything from a TS to a higher end Cat 2. However, rain will be the biggest issue with this system.
ETA: The 00z Euro and the 06z GFS both show over 20" of rain to the east of the track as the system slows down near landfall.
This post was edited on 9/12/20 at 7:42 am
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:37 am to rds dc
Damn that doesn’t give the center much land interaction. Not good, more time over water to intensify
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:43 am to rds dc
Ugh. Thanks, rds.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:49 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Zack Fradella saying right now he’s predicting landfall at the mouth of the river as a possible Cat 1 then moving over Nola, a bit westwardly of current NHC track because he expects the center of storm to follow the convection south for now as it enters the gulf
Seems reasonable, esp. given the intense convection just south of the current NHC fix.
You can see on radar what appears to be the LLC rolling and contracting southwestward towards the apparent MLC associated with the very deep convection.
However, even with sat and radar things can not be what they appear to be.
Posted on 9/12/20 at 7:50 am to rds dc
That’s too many models coming into LC.
We didn’t get the surge for Laura. I guess God will be late bringing water to the party.
If this turns out to be a run event, we can’t take anymore here right now. Between the actual water and people’s mental health, it would be a shithow
We didn’t get the surge for Laura. I guess God will be late bringing water to the party.
If this turns out to be a run event, we can’t take anymore here right now. Between the actual water and people’s mental health, it would be a shithow
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