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re: Risk 2.0 - FEMA Finnda Eat!

Posted on 9/19/21 at 9:21 am to
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
19966 posts
Posted on 9/19/21 at 9:21 am to
quote:

The system is broken- Insurance/government no longer provides a service of any value but we still have to pay out the arse for it. The day of reckoning is coming.


So you are saying I shouldn’t be interrogated like a criminal for filing a claim after Hurricane Ida?
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 9/19/21 at 9:27 am to
quote:

2) Our statistical understanding of rainfall probabilities, in both duration and intensity, is based on ~150 years of observational data. There is Army Corps research that notes more like 300-400 years of observational data is needed before annual exceedance probabilities stabilize with each new observation (storm). Another way to think about it is this: we haven't observed enough dice rolls (storms) to fully statistically define the chances of rolling snake eyes. Thus, each new roll (storm) can redefine the statistical probabilities.



I think the phrase you might be looking for a "sample error" or sample size error, to be more specific.
This post was edited on 9/19/21 at 9:39 am
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 9/19/21 at 9:34 am to
quote:

So, sounds like "if you can afford a more expensive house, we'll charge you more." That's the "equity" they are talking about. When choosing coverage, they have various limits with higher premiums for the more coverage you choose. Think its capped at $250k. This new system sounds more like a "tax" on those with higher value homes


Yeah but in typical sleight-of-hand government and insurance industry fashion, are they going to roll in land value into the home's value or just rebuilding costs?
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 9/19/21 at 9:35 am to
quote:

Unpopular opinion time:

Every home owner should carry flood insurance.

I got fricked living on the coast, had damage from Harvey. Also paid $1000/mo on a $1200/mo mortgage because of flood and wind. Everyone should have some level of flood insurance. Regardless of elevation



Why does the answer to every problem involve coercion or force? Why not just promote personal responsibilities and consequences? If you don't have flood insurance and you flood, you are now homeless. Too bad so sad.
Posted by TravelingTiger55
Tiger Stadium
Member since Jul 2007
1342 posts
Posted on 9/19/21 at 1:15 pm to
Instead of sending BILLIONS of OUR tax dollars to other countries, our Government should be using that money to shore up the National Flood Insurance program. Our Government is SO F$CKED UP…..
Posted by achenator
Member since Oct 2014
2944 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 11:12 am to
House is Zone B, Insurance not required by bank. Figure I should have it anyway. We moved into the house in Dec 2020. Just got a quote. $2305 for $250k
Posted by LootieandtheBlowfish
Houston/BR
Member since Aug 2021
553 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 11:27 am to
So on a 30 year mortgage you will have paid $69k (nice) towards a 250k policy for an event with a 9.5% chance of happening (at least once) across the life of the mortgage? That doesn’t seem like positive EV to me. I flooded once without insurance so I’ll always carry a policy but that just seems insane for a 500 year flood plain.
Posted by achenator
Member since Oct 2014
2944 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 11:56 am to
quote:

So on a 30 year mortgage you will have paid $69k (nice) towards a 250k policy for an event with a 9.5% chance of happening (at least once) across the life of the mortgage? That doesn’t seem like positive EV to me. I flooded once without insurance so I’ll always carry a policy but that just seems insane for a 500 year flood plain.
Yes it seems like a bit much. Plus the house is on a raised slab so it's up a bit. At $600 it's a no brainer IMO but at $2300 i may just be better buying crypto with that and YOLO lol.
Posted by sabanisarustedspoke
Member since Jan 2007
4947 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

Discouraging people from living where it floods is a good idea.




I initially and usually would have to agree with you 100%. But this is Baton Rouge bud and we love throwing up concrete and asking questions later which has proven to be a frickin disaster bc many people buying a new home in a new neighborhood have no reason to think it is going to flood but its.. And, thanks to our permitting anything, what didn't flood today may very well flood tomorrow.
Posted by Spasweezy
Unfortunately, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2014
6604 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 12:57 pm to
I like how they say premium increase limited to 18 percent annually like that’s some sort of win. Our government ruins whatever they get their grimy hands on.
Posted by BamaCoaster
God's Gulf
Member since Apr 2016
5251 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 1:16 pm to
A guy I insure in Orange Beach is in AE.
Base flood elevation of 8.
Home is 12.
Policy went from $573/yr to $2400/yr, though as another poster mentioned, it’s only going up 18% this year.
Not a fun convo.
Posted by DomincDecoco
of no fixed abode
Member since Oct 2018
10820 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

$4000 a year? They can GFT


thats a bold strategy cotton, lets see if it works.

Posted by Areddishfish
The Wild West
Member since Oct 2015
6275 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 1:22 pm to
If it gets out of hand, I don't plan on renewing. I only do it now since it is around $500 a year. My neighborhood is on a ridge and our street is on a ridge on that ridge. Didn't flood in 2016, June 2018, or May of this year. Basically for my house to flood, the whole city would be flooded out.
Posted by soccerfüt
Location: A Series of Tubes
Member since May 2013
65497 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

A guy I insure in Orange Beach is in AE.
Base flood elevation of 8.
Home is 12.
Policy went from $573/yr to $2400/yr, though as another poster mentioned, it’s only going up 18% this year.
Not a fun convo.
It should be at least $2,400/ year at an elevation of twelve feet.

He needs to get to liking paying that (or more) or move to a less risky place from flood.

The rest of the country is tired of underwriting his excessive risk.
Posted by TigerAlumni2010
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2011
4293 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 1:39 pm to
Anytime the government is calling something equitable, get ready to get fricked.

Also, it looks like there should be a cap of 18% policy increases, so in theory, my $570 policy, by law, should only be able to go up to $675 next year.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166075 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

Insurance not required by bank.


You have a federally backed loan.

You should be federally required to carry flood insurance.

Do this across the board and it stabilizes the flood insurance market.

my 2 cents.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35604 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

man in the stadium


Post more.
Posted by Areddishfish
The Wild West
Member since Oct 2015
6275 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

my $570 policy, by law, should only be able to go up to $675 next year.


Laughs in government
Posted by nolaks
Member since Dec 2013
1129 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

You have a federally backed loan.


can't believe there are people who post on the OT who have debt. Trashy!
Posted by achenator
Member since Oct 2014
2944 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

You have a federally backed loan.

You should be federally required to carry flood insurance.

Do this across the board and it stabilizes the flood insurance market.

my 2 cents.

What if my loan is privately backed?
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