re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

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Just south of Dallas and get to play my favorite game today - do I pick up the kid early from daycare or risk doing it at the normal time in hail...

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High school gets out at 4:30 and it’s a mix of Grand Theft Auto and Frogger on good days. I live 2 blocks away and pick up only in bad weather but, when I do, I don’t get in and out the parking lot under 3 horn blows and 1 F bomb.

It’s going to be one of those days where I watch the radar all day and decide if I pick up early based on that.

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Moderate on the board for today.

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Never a good feeling when things trend to over performing

Starting to rain hard in DFW

Yeah it seems a bit odd. Currently momsooning here but all the wind just died

Tight pressure gradient makes for a windy day, especially if you're lacking trees or buildings to slow it down.

Tornado watch coming soon for a large part of east-central/eastern Texas:



Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...Central/East TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 211923Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions are becoming more favorable for supercell
thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including very large
hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis shows a strong (i.e. 50-55 kt at
850 mb) low-level jet throughout much of the warm sector. This
mesoanalysis is verified by area 18Z soundings, with CRP and FWD
sampling 55 kt and 65 kt at 850 mb, respectively. Some convective
contamination may have contributed to the stronger winds at FWD, but
the general expectation is for these strong winds to persist
throughout the warm sector this afternoon and evening.

At the same time, strong moisture advection is contributing to air
mass destabilization. Dewpoints increases around 4 deg F have
occurred over the last 3 hours throughout much of central and
eastern TX, with dewpoints now ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s in
the AUS/CLL vicinity to low 60s across much of the Metroplex. Recent
mesoanalysis indicates MLCIN has eroded across much of central TX.
This is verified by a recent special sounding from St. Edwards
University in Austin, which sampled limited convective inhibition
remaining. Recent 18Z sounding from Texas A&M shows a bit more
convective inhibition remaining.

The improving thermodynamics, supercell wind profiles and gradually
strengthening ascent all suggest the potential for discrete
supercells capable of all severe hazards this afternoon, including
very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes.
Convective interference may limit the duration of any one discrete
cell, but the environmental conditions do support potentially
long-lived updrafts and intense supercells, particularly over
central TX/TX Hill Country. A Tornado Watch will be needed this
afternoon to cover this severe potential.

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Is school going to be canceled tomorrow?

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Canceled tomorrow in Washington Parish.

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$10 says schools cancel for the entire day on Tuesday.

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That’s a sucker bet because you know they will

HRRR seems to like discrete development in Texas

Noon or after. I think like 2 pm if I had to say a specific time.