re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

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Right but it won’t be as far south as south Louisiana. These things are almost always north of the Louisiana/Mississippi line. It’s going to consolidate into a single line here and we’ll all just get a bunch of rain and lightning.

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So looking like a scary afternoon in DFW?

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From your mouth to God’s ears. Thanks!

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It is Dallas in March though. Somebody could fart in an upward direction and you guys get hail and the tornado risk is there... I just suspect it is maximized to your south.

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
We are closing in on our much advertised severe weather event that should start to impact parts of the area by later tonight. Here’s how things are looking, and what to expect.

Apart from some small timing issues, I think I have a pretty good handle on how this is going to play out. Scattered storms are possible as far east as Leesville and Shreveport by late this afternoon and evening. These will move to the north northeast, and will likely stay below severe limits until after midnight in those areas. A severe storm is possible, but that won’t be the main event. The rest of the area will see some spotty showers as moisture flows in from the Gulf of Mexico. All in all, it looks like things stay pretty tame in Central Louisiana through midnight.

By midnight, a severe line of storms should be draped from roughly Texarkana to College Station TX. This line will very slowly creep into northwest Louisiana, causing flooding rain, and potentially several rounds of severe weather in spots.

By 7:00 AM, that line will be roughly along a Ruston to Many, LA corridor, and continue a slow march to the east, as individual cells in the line move to the northeast. The big question after sunrise will be if we get supercells to develop ahead of the main line. It’s entirely possible that this happens, but for now, I think the most likely scenario is that we see cells develop immediately ahead of the line that get absorbed by the main line of storms. That would still be problematic, as these cell mergers could cause isolated tornadoes. There will also be 60-75 mph wind only a couple thousand feet above ground level. These winds will easily get pulled down to the surface in any thunderstorm, causing scattered wind damage. That’s our most widespread threat. Hail could also be an issue, especially with any isolated cells ahead of the line.

There are still some details to resolve, but SPC has most of the area in a level 3 or 4 out of 5 severe risk sometime late Monday into Tuesday. The parameters in place for severe weather are probably a 9 out of 10 on how high they get, though that’s admittedly a scale I just made up in my head. That being said, cooler shelf waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico could help temper the severe threat a bit, especially as you get closer to I-10. The tornado threat could end up a bit lower if we don’t see isolated cells ahead of the main line. The two things that looks likely no matter what are scattered damaging wind gusts in the 50-75 mph range, and very heavy rain that will cause flooding in spots. The heaviest should fall over northwest Louisiana where a stripe of 4-8 inches is possible. A general 2-4 inches is likely across the rest of the state, with isolated higher totals possible. Prime time for all this in Central Louisiana will be 7:00 AM until 3:00 PM, with 3-6 hours of active weather in a given location. I’ll do a ding free livestream later to go over this with some model data, and maybe a little technical talk to make me feel smart. My wife told me I still have to do these long winded text updates because some people can’t watch videos at work. Updates will be cranking out for the next day. That’s for sure.

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We gon die?

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Eventually

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