re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

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Updated Day 5 and Day 6:

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happened to put on a Ryan Hall Y'all video last night before the storms rolled in

talking about the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday event... he said (and I'm paraphrasing): "If this was late April or May, we'd be looking at multiple days of high risk for tornadoes. Since it's only mid-March might be a saving grace."

Man it's been nasty as hell in the Mobile area. Looks like it's almost done, hopefully.

for those of us west of the line of current storms... we can now focus on the early week threat for next week

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
Last night was most definitely loud, and some areas saw several inches of rain. Unfortunately, where the drought is most severe over south Louisiana, there wasn’t enough rain to put a dent in things. The drought has most certainly been dented in Central Louisiana. In fact, if the drought were a car, it might just have to be totaled. More rain and severe weather is on the way, so let’s jump on in and take a look.

Monday afternoon into Monday night…
Storms are forecast to develop over Texas by late Monday morning. These will move slowly to the east along the leading edge of deeper moisture. Models still vary a bit on timing, but it looks increasingly likely that we will see a round of thunderstorms either late Monday afternoon, or into the overnight. These storms could be severe, with all modes of severe weather possible.

Tuesday…
This still looks like the “main event”, though it looks more likely that we will see at least two waves of severe weather from this system. Storms should once again consolidate over East Texas by Tuesday morning, and slowly translate to the east through the day Tuesday. I think models are under forecasting rainfall totals, as they did with this last event. I’m saying 2-4 inches looks likely, with isolated higher totals. Given the set up, these numbers could be conservative. Severe parameters are high end for the entire event, but seem to peak in the 9:00 AM until 3:00 PM Tuesday timeframe. Again, all modes of severe weather are possible.

Don’t focus exactly on the 30% bullseyes given by SPC. The timing of this all makes it a little wonky here in Central Louisiana when it comes to communicating the risk if you are dealing with cut off times. The SPC outlooks end at 7:00 AM each day, which is kind of right in the middle of our threat. Since severe parameters will remain significant through the event, I’m considering this a level 3/5 enhanced risk for our area, with potential to be increased in later outlooks. There are details that are impossible to forecast until things start happening, but we will start to get some shorter range model data today. That’ll at least give us another couple pieces of data for me to toss in the forecasting hat. I’ll update things as needed, but think it’ll be tomorrow before anything is worth updating. The main threat time is 3:00 PM Monday until 3:00 PM Tuesday. Plan accordingly.

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And we were windy with rather brisk temperatures this morning...North Texas. Front came thru dry for us

So The Forecast Busted In Louisiana

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are they still thinking that we may have more storms tonight in Central AL?

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The chances are really diminishing.

Waterspout rolling into the Panama City beach area right now.

4th warning between Bay, Okaloosa and Walton Counties in FL this afternoon.

There was a decent wake low in NE Georgia earlier on the back side of the line. Phillipe has a couple tweets on it.

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bernard and fradella on fox 8 nola have been hyper sensitive today because a few people stuck it to them on social media

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They need to do what Jason Simpson did in North AL, tell them to, "Go lick a doorknob." He said that during Covid times....the horror!