re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

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weather forecasting really puts into perspective that everyday people have no concept of risk or probability used in models

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It has no limit, either. People lose their minds. I like it. It makes it easy to see who the idiots are.

Looked like there was one off Inlet Beach that broke up as the PCB storm made landfall as well.

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Low probabilities but large impacts are the worst for this too.

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I think alot of people don't take that into account. You can't have a good, conditional threat that is nocturnal and not "hype" it to some extent. That's how people die. I'd rather deal with the idiots screaming "bust" than deal with grieving people saying they had no warning.

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I think alot of people don't take that into account. You can't have a good, conditional threat that is nocturnal and not "hype" it to some extent. That's how people die. I'd rather deal with the idiots screaming "bust" than deal with grieving people saying they had no warning.

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Exactly.



This was an actual sounding from LIX this morning. With this environment, its irresponsible not to sound the alarm. You dont go on about how everyone's going to die or make up how you have a PDS watch or something but you have to note if you get a tornado it'll likely be a big bad one.

And you tell people it probably isnt going to happen, many of them are going to hear its not going to happen dont worry.

Tornado in Louisville, Kentucky

Kinda odd setup to trail a line of storms like this

Yep....that'll do it. Those fronts are a little farther East now and what is firing that line of storms.

Might bode well for timing across Alabama.

Mississippi on Tuesday looks scary. It has everything. Jet stream splits (big divergence) which presents a ton of forcing. Ripping low level jet. Good instability. Hodos are troubling from the models.

Storm mode being messy is my remaining hope. Tons of forcing, a mostly moist column, and no cap could lead to clusters competing and no storms really able to fully realize the danger of these parameters.

Its a question of too much of a good thing for storms.

they all go up at once and interfere with each other vs getting some semi alone.

Well...shite