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Predict COVID Numbers in the US

Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:43 am
Posted by BlindTiger7
Houston
Member since Sep 2016
3071 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:43 am
How the Pandemic Will End


quote:

The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.


quote:

Three months ago, no one knew that SARS-CoV-2 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, infecting at least 446,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, filled hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed. Soon, most everyone in the United States will know someone who has been infected. Like World War II or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already imprinted itself upon the nation’s psyche.


quote:

On the Global Health Security Index, a report card that grades every country on its pandemic preparedness, the United States has a score of 83.5—the world’s highest. Rich, strong, developed, America is supposed to be the readiest of nations. That illusion has been shattered. Despite months of advance warning as the virus spread in other countries, when America was finally tested by COVID-19, it failed.


quote:

Rudderless, blindsided, lethargic, and uncoordinated, America has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis to a substantially worse degree than what every health expert I’ve spoken with had feared.



quote:

If health-care workers can’t stay healthy, the rest of the response will collapse.



Many people are under the assumption that things will get better by Easter. In reality, this is the furthest thing from the truth. We failed in not taking this seriously from the start and considered our country invincible to this virus. Now we are paying the price.

Just looking at numbers I'm thinking we'll end up with between 300K-400K cases in the states.

Looking back I'm thinking what we could have done different?

Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
94039 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:44 am to
Before I guess...

What are you offering in the way of prizes for the winners?
Posted by Boh
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2009
12361 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:45 am to
What the frick were we supposed to do? Self quarantine for a minimum of 2 weeks as soon as this thing was in China, then what?

Posted by Possumslayer
Pascagoula
Member since Jan 2018
6474 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:45 am to
5 mill
Posted by Rand AlThor
Member since Jan 2014
10432 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:46 am to
I’m thinking around 10 million cases, 100K deaths
Posted by Sao
East Texas Piney Woods
Member since Jun 2009
68469 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:47 am to

:hesrightyouknowpic:
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
139230 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:47 am to
Funny how we never heard this panic when 60 million Americans got the swine flu.
Posted by GRTiger
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
71843 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:47 am to
quote:

Looking back I'm thinking what we could have done different?



Banned China travel 3 years ago.
Posted by Dr Rosenrosen
Member since May 2006
4365 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:47 am to
There were 35 million cases of the common flu last season and 34K deaths.

All of this is a massive, massive overreaction.
Posted by BlindTiger7
Houston
Member since Sep 2016
3071 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:48 am to
I think what's worrying medical professionals is how much faster this is spreading than the flu and the amount of medical equipment readily available to fight this
Posted by lsu xman
Member since Oct 2006
17020 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:48 am to
200K by Wednesday next week and our first 1K death/day.
Posted by Bunyan
He/Him
Member since Oct 2016
20931 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:49 am to
You linked The Atlantic.

The Atlantic said Trump's travel restrictions from China were racist and xenophobic

quote:

Rudderless, blindsided, lethargic, and uncoordinated, America has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis to a substantially worse degree than what every health expert I’ve spoken with had feared.

While Trump was restricting travel in JANUARY, Democrats were still pushing peach mints, and CNN was calling Trump's task force racist

This post was edited on 3/28/20 at 10:52 am
Posted by Privateer 2007
Member since Jan 2020
7951 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:50 am to
quote:

300-400k cases in United States


Wrong.
We are already over a million.
#asymtomatic
Posted by BlindTiger7
Houston
Member since Sep 2016
3071 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:50 am to
quote:

All of this is a massive, massive overreaction.



So you wouldn't be worried if you got sick from it?
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
24878 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:51 am to
quote:

What the frick were we supposed to do? Self quarantine for a minimum of 2 weeks as soon as this thing was in China, then what?


Regardless of how well prepared the US could’ve been there’s no way the US wouldn’t have had the most cases at some point. It was inevitable with the large population, how much traveling is done here, and just how regular people act. We don’t have by far the largest population but all the other countries with the top 10 or 15 populations either aren’t really testing that much or lying.
Posted by GRTiger
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
71843 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:51 am to
quote:

Funny how we never heard this panic when 60 million Americans got the swine flu.


I actually knew a healthy, awesome 23 year old guy that contracted swine flu in 2009 and died due to it. He really missed the boat on getting 100 virtue signaling memorial articles written about him.

He also posted here.
Posted by BlindTiger7
Houston
Member since Sep 2016
3071 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:52 am to
quote:

We don’t have by far the largest population but all the other countries with the top 10 or 15 populations either aren’t really testing that much or lying.



I agree with this. Many countries around the world are understating their true numbers

It all began with China suppressing this virus and making the whole world turn a blind eye
Posted by Boh
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2009
12361 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:54 am to
Right, the monday morning quarterback bullshite is irritating. Of course it’s easy to say the US or other countries weren’t prepared or didn’t respond appropriately when there are thousands sick and dying.

I don’t get into the political sides of things and I believe the federal and state officials are doing the best they can with the information available.
Posted by Dr Rosenrosen
Member since May 2006
4365 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:56 am to
Of course but life must go on.

Two years ago there were 60K fatalities from the common flu!
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
175705 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 10:58 am to
I read this article the other day

It's well written and well thought out but I think it's probably a bit aggressive with the doomsday assumptions

I enjoyed the read but I don't know if it's a reflection of reality
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