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re: Predict COVID Numbers in the US

Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:50 am to
Posted by MikeBRLA
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2005
17243 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:50 am to
quote:

Funny how we never heard this panic when 60 million Americans got the swine flu.


I don’t get this either.

Whenever I mention swine flu’s numbers on infected people and deaths in the US they look at me like I have 3 heads and dispute the facts.

From the CDC On swine flu below.

quote:

in total, 57 million Americans had been sickened, 257,000 had been hospitalised and 11,690 people had died (including 1,180 children) due to swine flu from April through to mid-January
Posted by bigberg2000
houston, from chalmette
Member since Sep 2005
70821 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:52 am to
Well we either fricked up then or it wasn’t as contagious. We probably just fricked up. What kind of time period was that?

Posted by MikeBRLA
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2005
17243 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 11:56 am to
From my quote. So 10 months roughly.

quote:

from April through to mid-January
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21698 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world.




If going by totals, then probably so b/c China and India are not openly reporting data. Indonesia has little capacity to test and, based on the data we do have from there, things are really bad.

In the end, the US will have the biggest official number b/c we are the 3rd most populace country in the world and the only country in the Top 10 that is actually trying to accurately and openly report data.

Now, when it comes to CFR & IFR, the US will be near the best at handling this with numbers below 1%. Based on official data from China, their CFR is now over 4%, yet we continually see them held up by the media as some kind of shinning example of what the world should be striving for
Posted by Tigerpride18
Lakewood Colorado
Member since Sep 2017
33342 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:04 pm to
Suck a dick
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216684 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:07 pm to
I would have never thought India had a billion more people than us. That's crazy.
Posted by Tigerpride18
Lakewood Colorado
Member since Sep 2017
33342 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:07 pm to
I know it's serious, but it gets old when people try to scare you all day everyday. Just lay off.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
88346 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:27 pm to
quote:

In a scenario where we didn't force the cancelation of regular commerce and carried on normally, how many corona deaths do you think it would take to put us in a worse spot than where we are right now?
I didn't say one way or another, I don't know. You're the one making a definitive statements.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43482 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:44 pm to
quote:

month after Trump put travel restrictions in place, the mayor of New York was encouraging people to go to the theater.

This is the real life version of the kid sticking a twig in his spokes and blaming Trump when he falls off his bike.



He was wrong for downplaying it too.

The blame isn't solely on Trump and I didn't intend for that to come out that way. Leadership across the country messed up early on. Trump is just the most visible.
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216684 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 12:48 pm to
This is fact. I'm not saying he could not have done things different, but could have reacted sooner.
Posted by Geauxgurt
Member since Sep 2013
13645 posts
Posted on 3/28/20 at 1:34 pm to
Total numbers are meaningless. Percent of population is a better measure and honestly that only depends on tested people and assuming other countries such as China are providing legitimate numbers.

It will likely have less numbers of documented cases from the flu and around the same number of deaths possibly is my estimation.
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