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re: Powerball odds in perspective
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:19 am to Rebel
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:19 am to Rebel
quote:
If the odds of gitting killed from falling airplane debris are one 10 million vs winning powerball and there are 104 powerball drawings per year with approximately 40 or so of those drawings resulting in a winner, 3-4 people per month should be getting pulverized by falling ailerons or something similar.
Odds are not a guarantee.
1
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:20 am to TDawg1313
Odds of me paying someone to punch you in the dick after I win
1:1
1:1
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:20 am to Rebel
This is also going off the odds on the powerball website. The same website that says your odds of matching just the powerball are 1 in 38.32. I'm no statistician but if there are 26 possible choices I'd imagine the actual odds are closer to 1 in 26.00.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:20 am to Theboot32
quote:
that stuff is bull shite though, becuase someone will win the Powerball, probably tonight. All that shite you listed isnt going to happen to anyone within a certain timeframe, some of it may, but it may not. as in, someone isnt going to be hit by an asteroid or falling airplane parts tonight. There's a finite-ness to this that makes those comparisons invalid.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:22 am to TDawg1313
quote:
Dying from chronic constipation
This sounds horrifying
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:30 am to Rebel
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:30 am to Ed Osteen
quote:
I'm calling bullshite on the odds of being killed by falling airplane parts
That and an asteroid strike.
Those odds would suggest we should see 90-100 deaths by meteor each year, when in fact there are ZERO recorded human deaths from space rocks.
Most of those odds are bullshite because they are extrapolated to the world population. The odds of a random person being killed by a vending machine is much, much worse than 1 in 112 million, but the odds of a person who services and delivers vending machines dying as a result is much better than 1 in 112 million.
It would be like saying my probability of dying while working in the commercial fishing industry is 1 in 782 (actually mortality rate from CDC) or even 1 in 128 million (58 average deaths per year out of 7.4B population), when in fact the probability of me, Slackster in Houston, TX, dying while working in the commercial fishing industry is zilch, zero, nada.
This post was edited on 1/13/16 at 11:36 am
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:39 am to JG77056
quote:
This is also going off the odds on the powerball website. The same website that says your odds of matching just the powerball are 1 in 38.32. I'm no statistician but if there are 26 possible choices I'd imagine the actual odds are closer to 1 in 26.00.
They explicitly state that those odds are for matching JUST the Powerball. There are other combinations where the Powerball plus some white numbers would win more than the $4, so they are quoting the odds of hitting the Powerball number only.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:42 am to slackster
quote:
That and an asteroid strike. Those odds would suggest we should see 90-100 deaths by meteor each year, when in fact there are ZERO recorded human deaths from space rocks.
That's not at all what it suggests. Meteors and asteroids aren't the same thing. An asteroid strike large enough could kill all living things on earth, like the dinosaurs. So at roughly 1 in 75 million that's saying that every 75 million years or so there should be an asteroid that wipes us all out.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:52 am to JG77056
quote:
That's not at all what it suggests. Meteors and asteroids aren't the same thing. An asteroid strike large enough could kill all living things on earth, like the dinosaurs. So at roughly 1 in 75 million that's saying that every 75 million years or so there should be an asteroid that wipes us all out.
Thank you for proving my point. I'm aware that the asteroid odds are contingent upon everyone dying in an event that happens approximately every 75 million years.
Now you can see how dumb it is to try and compare those odds against the Powerball.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 11:55 am to JG77056
quote:
I'll put it in a different perspective. If you spend $584 on tickets you've got a one in a million shot at being a billionaire. Now let's say the OT has spent on a conservative count a grand total of $5,840 in tickets. Tiger stadium has about 100,000 people during the latter part of the first quarter of big home games. So the OT would have 1 seat in which one lucky seat number is drawn for a billion and a half dollars. People get excited about getting their seat drawn for a $25 Cane's card.
I was going to make this exact thread this morning but I decided the OT had enough and I'd just bounce around the 4-6 threads that other people would start throughout the day instead.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 12:04 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
Odds are not a guarantee.
There is no guarantee that anyone will win the powerball in a given year.
But if you apply statistics, (and you can't pick and choose) historical (and I admit I'm grabbing a number that seems close to accurate) there will be a powerball winner every 3 or so drawings.
ftr, where did the falling airplane debris statistic come from? Is that a US statistic? Are 911 deaths calculated as falling airplane debris?
Not saying the numbers are wrong. But they aren't being applied correctly.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 12:05 pm to slackster
If you've got an extra $584,000 lying around that would give you a 1 in a thousand chance at becoming a billionaire. Slightly better if you exclude combos like 1-2-3-4-5 that are unlikely to hit
Posted on 1/13/16 at 12:16 pm to JG77056
quote:
Slightly better if you exclude combos like 1-2-3-4-5 that are unlikely to hit
1-2-3-4-5 is just as likely as any other combo.
The only strategy behind excluding that if you're only going to cover .1% of the combinations is that many people probably play that number so your likelihood of a split pot increases significantly.
If you're trying to maximize your payout while leaving 999 out of 1000 combinations on the table, and understand that any combo is as likely as any other, you should probably avoid combos with a Powerball of 7, 13, or 21 as well as other commonly played numbers.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 12:47 pm to TDawg1313
And when possible I do things to lower the odds because I don't want most of them to happen to me.
On the other side, I am doing some things to increase the odds of what I do want to happen to me.
On the other side, I am doing some things to increase the odds of what I do want to happen to me.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 1:18 pm to TDawg1313
quote:
Dying from using a right-handed product incorrectly if you are left-handed (1 in 4.4 million)
This one made me
Posted on 1/13/16 at 1:24 pm to TDawg1313
What are the odds that no one ever wins again? This just keeps going forever.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 1:26 pm to TDawg1313
quote:
If you drive one mile to the store to buy your lottery ticket and then return home, your chance of being killed (or killing someone else) is about 10 times greater than the chance that you will win the Powerball Jackpot.
This is not a great stat. The odds you give are averaged out over the entire population, even though you know damn well there are areas you are more likely to get murdered than not, and there are people more likely to get murdered than not.
Live in a violent area + are a violent person = more likely than someone who doesnt live in a violent area, and isnt a violent person
quote:
-Be struck by lightning, while drowning (1 in 183 million)
If I hold on to a giant rod while swimming during a lightning storm, wouldnt my chances go up?
quote:
-Be killed by an asteroid strike (1 in 74,817,414)
Has anyone ever on earth been killed by an asteroid? Ever? Injured maybe, but I dont think anyone has ever died directly.
quote:
-Have an IQ of 190 or greater (1 out of 107 million, although the odds are greater on the OT I'm sure)
IQ tests vary immensely, and are highly faulty, and of course if you do in fact believe in their validity that couples with hire IQ's will likely have children with higher IQ's.
All of this shite is averaged over an enormous population, and does not indicate the probability in each individual circumstance accurately.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 1:28 pm to Iko
quote:
On Mike and Mike this morning, they quoted a statistician who determined that Bartolo Colon has a greater chance of hitting an inside-the-park home run than you do of winning the Powerball Lottery.
In which ballpark? What if he took steroids or HGH and had batting practice for a month?
What kind of pitch would be thrown that he would have to hit out?
Without info , the stat is garbage and just fun to look at.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 1:30 pm to TDawg1313
quote:
-Randomly picking the name of one specific female in the U.S. (1 in 157 million)
bullshite. I guarantee you I can spot a "Peggy" or a "Roxanne" on the spot. It's also not too hard to spot a "Lauren".
quote:
-Being killed by a vending machine (1 in 112 million)
For this to be true, hasnt someone had to have gotten killed by a vending machine before? I'd love to know that story.
What are the odds that that person and the 190 IQ person are related? Now THAT'S and very minute probability stat.
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