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Posted on 9/21/24 at 10:05 pm to loogaroo
quote:
Latest GFS hates Tampa…lol
That’s more like Apalachicola.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 10:06 pm to Cosmo
Sir, what about Betsy?!
Posted on 9/21/24 at 11:03 pm to alphaandomega
Just a hair north of Tampa.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 11:04 pm to WeagleEagle
quote:
Just a hair north of Tampa.
What kind of hair?
Posted on 9/21/24 at 11:11 pm to Cosmo
I know still need a low pressure to truly form but all the models tonight are showing a much stronger storm and a quick bend to the northeast and goes to Florida
Posted on 9/22/24 at 12:00 am to Cosmo
Long way to go but that’s close to worst case scenario for Tampa area.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 12:08 am to slackster
I notice GFS keeps pulling a hurricane in right behind this one on their runs. Is that going to be a concern?
Posted on 9/22/24 at 12:19 am to friendlyobservation
Yes
Posted on 9/22/24 at 4:08 am to friendlyobservation
It’s certainly a long shot I know but if that gfs run verifies with what looks like two major hurricanes hitting the FL peninsula within 2 weeks of each other we’ll be having to take out a second mortgage just to pay for insurance.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:00 am to otowntiger
Well now it's only showing one storm. I like that progress.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:08 am to loogaroo
That link now shows a panhandle hit.
These models change drastically in a short period of time.
Still hoping this stays disorganized and affects no one.
These models change drastically in a short period of time.
Still hoping this stays disorganized and affects no one.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:29 am to slackster
quote:
Long way to go but that’s close to worst case scenario for Tampa area.
WTF baw?
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:31 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:31 am to Cosmo
quote:
Why do people keep bringing up Gustav?
Becasue Freeze is a loser and shite coach
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:34 am to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
SUNDAY MORNING TROPICAL UDPATE: There is a high chance a tropical storm or hurricane will form in the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week.
But understand this system has not formed; until we have a low level center, and dropsonde data Hurricane Hunters model output can't be fully trusted. And, what we post here could very easily change.
Having said that, there is much better agreement for now....
*Highest landfall probabilities are over the Florida Panhandle. But, understand ensemble members show landfall potential anywhere from the Alabama/Mississippi border to Fort Myers. Most members are somewhere between Pensacola Beach and Apalachicola.
A deep upper trough to the west will take the system north/northeast in this direction. The position and depth of the trough will determine the final landfall point.
*Landfall will likely come sometime between midday Thursday and early Friday morning.
*No way of knowing the intensity. This could be a low end tropical storm/rainmaker, or a high impact hurricane. We all know the SSTs (sea surface temperatures) are very warm in the Gulf, but there is much more to tropical cyclone formation than that. Strong westerly winds aloft ahead of the upper trough could be an issue and prevent major intensification, but we just don't know that yet.
*If you live on the coast, you should be ready for a hurricane anytime from June through November. Be in a state of readiness this week and be ready to take action if needed. Don't forget, the main impact in terms of wind, storm surge, and fresh water flooding is along and east of the landfall point on the coast.
*For those of you planning a trip to the Gulf Coast, I really don't like to give travel advice since different people have a different risk tolerance level, and we all go to the coast for different reasons. I would not change any plans today, but watch tropical updates very closely in coming days. Once we get a low level center and a good forecast track, you can make a solid decision. We are not at that point this morning.
Here is today's briefing on the situation if you missed it:
LINK
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:50 am to Bobby OG Johnson
GFS is back to panhandle. This back and forth may continue until a well defined center is created.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:59 am to slackster
Finally have an X on the 2 day probably maybe that will help with the models some now
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:00 am to lsuman25
lets see it
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:01 am to lsuman25
quote:
Finally have an X on the 2 day probably maybe that will help with the models some now
Not exactly. There’s nothing defined down there right now.
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