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Started By
Message
re: OT Gamblers: How can both money lines be negative?
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:01 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:01 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
If even money comes in on both sides they profit but I wouldn’t expect Mingo to understand that
ETA honestly it blows my mind how confident you act on all subjects even when you are wrong
ETA honestly it blows my mind how confident you act on all subjects even when you are wrong
This post was edited on 9/22/25 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:01 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
quote:
why would I take a negative money line on the underdog?
You wouldn't
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:02 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
If even money comes in on both sides they profit but I wouldn’t expect Mingo to understand that
That’s not what you said
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:03 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
Vegas adjusts lines based on money that comes in. That’s why the line has moved 3 points already from when it opened. You assuming someone doesn’t understand that is on you
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:05 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
I’m thinking about jumping on an LSU minus six alt line.
Did that with Clemson and hit big.
Did that with Clemson and hit big.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:05 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
quote:
Is there any way to arbitrage it?
Not with minus odds - that means you bet $102 or $118 to win just $100. Actually less because the book takes a commission out of your winnings.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:05 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Vegas adjusts lines based on money that comes in.
Which still doesn’t guarantee they make money just because there’s vig
Which is what you said
quote:
You assuming someone doesn’t understand that is on you
I can only go off of what you say. Say what you mean and mean what you say
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:06 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Not with minus odds - that means you bet $102 or $118 to win just $100. Actually less because the book takes a commission out of your winnings.
That makes sense.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:09 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
They charge you vigorish to bet, how they theoretically make their profit.
Team A is -110
Team B is -110
2 people bet $110 to win $100, one on each team
Take $110 from loser, give $210 back to winner, pocket the change
Arbitrage betting gets you banned, if you want to win you need to truly learn the teams and how their schemes matchup and research the matchups a week ahead of time. Have an idea of what the lines SHOULD BE and bet opening lines that are mispriced before they move
Also there are several ways to hedge, particularly using over/unders that can give you a major edge on certain matchups. A prime example was Miami/Florida this past weekend.The OU opened at 55 and Miami ML was -165ish
It was possible for Miami to lose that game, but they were never losing AND the over hitting. 0% chance Florida was scoring >29 points in any game script. Betting the Miami ML and under for the same amount as what you bet on Miami ML was a free roll. Miami might lose, but the under would always hit. The over may hit if Miami scores 35+, but that would also be a wash as they win. Which leaves the alternate, Miami wins AND the under hits, which happened and it was the correct +EV bet
Edit: yes this is a simplified explanation as losing money was still possible if Miami lost and the under hit, but it was always +EV if you crunch it. If you wanted the highest possible EV bet, it would have been hedging by propping Florida D/ST TD(what was it, like 6:1?) to cover both bets and finding a book to give you action on the backup qb having 2+ total TD’s at like +1500, which was the only way Florida could have won and the over hit, but was so long it’s mostly irrelevant
Team A is -110
Team B is -110
2 people bet $110 to win $100, one on each team
Take $110 from loser, give $210 back to winner, pocket the change
Arbitrage betting gets you banned, if you want to win you need to truly learn the teams and how their schemes matchup and research the matchups a week ahead of time. Have an idea of what the lines SHOULD BE and bet opening lines that are mispriced before they move
Also there are several ways to hedge, particularly using over/unders that can give you a major edge on certain matchups. A prime example was Miami/Florida this past weekend.The OU opened at 55 and Miami ML was -165ish
It was possible for Miami to lose that game, but they were never losing AND the over hitting. 0% chance Florida was scoring >29 points in any game script. Betting the Miami ML and under for the same amount as what you bet on Miami ML was a free roll. Miami might lose, but the under would always hit. The over may hit if Miami scores 35+, but that would also be a wash as they win. Which leaves the alternate, Miami wins AND the under hits, which happened and it was the correct +EV bet
Edit: yes this is a simplified explanation as losing money was still possible if Miami lost and the under hit, but it was always +EV if you crunch it. If you wanted the highest possible EV bet, it would have been hedging by propping Florida D/ST TD(what was it, like 6:1?) to cover both bets and finding a book to give you action on the backup qb having 2+ total TD’s at like +1500, which was the only way Florida could have won and the over hit, but was so long it’s mostly irrelevant
This post was edited on 9/24/25 at 1:30 am
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:10 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Actually less because the book takes a commission out of your winnings.
Where?
Find a new book
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:14 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
This LSU defense with this LSU offense?
Im betting the farm on the Under.
Im betting the farm on the Under.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:30 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
quote:
So does this imply that the Vegas oddsmakers think this is about even?
The answer is yes, but if you couldn't figure it out from looking at the money line, the 1.5 pt spread should've given it away.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:34 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
The answer is yes, but if you couldn't figure it out from looking at the money line, the 1.5 pt spread should've given it away.
Vegas actually power ranks LSU quite a bit higher than Ole Miss as the Tigers opened as a 2.5 point favorite which is like 57ish% implied odds of winning as a road favorite. Factoring in home field Vegas has LSU around a 5.5 point better football team on a neutral but all of the money was coming in on Ole Miss (still at about 65% of the money) so the line has moved
This post was edited on 9/22/25 at 9:39 pm
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:04 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
This is why I prefer betting in decimal odds. You can quickly do the math to figure out the implied odds and take it from there. American odds are set up for you to either be unable to do that at a glance, or bet in multiples of $100
A -110/ is 1.91 in decimal odds. 2.0 is even money, so anything above 2.0 is your + in American odds, anything less than 2.0 is your -
(1/1.91) + (1/1.91) = 1.047. Bookie has a 4.7% vig
A -110/ is 1.91 in decimal odds. 2.0 is even money, so anything above 2.0 is your + in American odds, anything less than 2.0 is your -
(1/1.91) + (1/1.91) = 1.047. Bookie has a 4.7% vig
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:06 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
Casino doesn’t make money by giving even odds. Not really that odd considering its such a small spread and -102 for LSU is practically even money odds.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:19 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
There has to be some padding there for the house profit. You are never going to get 50/50 odds.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:33 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
It's the Jews.
Sorry, juice.
Sorry, juice.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:58 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
The book is gonna make juice.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 11:10 pm to RanchoLaPuerto
I rarely ever bet on lsu, I dont want to ruin the game by worrying about my bet. I just want the tigers to win.
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