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re: OT Gamblers: How can both money lines be negative?

Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:01 pm to
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24583 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:01 pm to
If even money comes in on both sides they profit but I wouldn’t expect Mingo to understand that

ETA honestly it blows my mind how confident you act on all subjects even when you are wrong
This post was edited on 9/22/25 at 9:03 pm
Posted by HailToTheChiz
Back in Auburn
Member since Aug 2010
53372 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

why would I take a negative money line on the underdog?


You wouldn't
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
36121 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

If even money comes in on both sides they profit but I wouldn’t expect Mingo to understand that


That’s not what you said
Posted by RanchoLaPuerto
Jena
Member since Aug 2023
1748 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

degenerates


Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24583 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:03 pm to
Vegas adjusts lines based on money that comes in. That’s why the line has moved 3 points already from when it opened. You assuming someone doesn’t understand that is on you
Posted by RanchoLaPuerto
Jena
Member since Aug 2023
1748 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:05 pm to
I’m thinking about jumping on an LSU minus six alt line.

Did that with Clemson and hit big.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
78743 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:05 pm to
quote:

Is there any way to arbitrage it?



Not with minus odds - that means you bet $102 or $118 to win just $100. Actually less because the book takes a commission out of your winnings.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
36121 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:05 pm to
quote:

Vegas adjusts lines based on money that comes in.


Which still doesn’t guarantee they make money just because there’s vig

Which is what you said


quote:

You assuming someone doesn’t understand that is on you


I can only go off of what you say. Say what you mean and mean what you say
Posted by RanchoLaPuerto
Jena
Member since Aug 2023
1748 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:06 pm to
quote:

Not with minus odds - that means you bet $102 or $118 to win just $100. Actually less because the book takes a commission out of your winnings.


That makes sense.
Posted by SECCaptain
Member since Jun 2025
1217 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:09 pm to
They charge you vigorish to bet, how they theoretically make their profit.

Team A is -110
Team B is -110

2 people bet $110 to win $100, one on each team

Take $110 from loser, give $210 back to winner, pocket the change

Arbitrage betting gets you banned, if you want to win you need to truly learn the teams and how their schemes matchup and research the matchups a week ahead of time. Have an idea of what the lines SHOULD BE and bet opening lines that are mispriced before they move

Also there are several ways to hedge, particularly using over/unders that can give you a major edge on certain matchups. A prime example was Miami/Florida this past weekend.The OU opened at 55 and Miami ML was -165ish

It was possible for Miami to lose that game, but they were never losing AND the over hitting. 0% chance Florida was scoring >29 points in any game script. Betting the Miami ML and under for the same amount as what you bet on Miami ML was a free roll. Miami might lose, but the under would always hit. The over may hit if Miami scores 35+, but that would also be a wash as they win. Which leaves the alternate, Miami wins AND the under hits, which happened and it was the correct +EV bet

Edit: yes this is a simplified explanation as losing money was still possible if Miami lost and the under hit, but it was always +EV if you crunch it. If you wanted the highest possible EV bet, it would have been hedging by propping Florida D/ST TD(what was it, like 6:1?) to cover both bets and finding a book to give you action on the backup qb having 2+ total TD’s at like +1500, which was the only way Florida could have won and the over hit, but was so long it’s mostly irrelevant
This post was edited on 9/24/25 at 1:30 am
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
36121 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

Actually less because the book takes a commission out of your winnings.


Where?

Find a new book
Posted by AutoYes_Clown
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2012
5332 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:14 pm to
This LSU defense with this LSU offense?

Im betting the farm on the Under.
Posted by Chucktown_Badger
The banks of the Ashley River
Member since May 2013
35732 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:30 pm to
quote:

So does this imply that the Vegas oddsmakers think this is about even?


The answer is yes, but if you couldn't figure it out from looking at the money line, the 1.5 pt spread should've given it away.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
36121 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

The answer is yes, but if you couldn't figure it out from looking at the money line, the 1.5 pt spread should've given it away.


Vegas actually power ranks LSU quite a bit higher than Ole Miss as the Tigers opened as a 2.5 point favorite which is like 57ish% implied odds of winning as a road favorite. Factoring in home field Vegas has LSU around a 5.5 point better football team on a neutral but all of the money was coming in on Ole Miss (still at about 65% of the money) so the line has moved
This post was edited on 9/22/25 at 9:39 pm
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
21720 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:04 pm to
This is why I prefer betting in decimal odds. You can quickly do the math to figure out the implied odds and take it from there. American odds are set up for you to either be unable to do that at a glance, or bet in multiples of $100

A -110/ is 1.91 in decimal odds. 2.0 is even money, so anything above 2.0 is your + in American odds, anything less than 2.0 is your -

(1/1.91) + (1/1.91) = 1.047. Bookie has a 4.7% vig
Posted by Tiger Prawn
Member since Dec 2016
24977 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:06 pm to
Casino doesn’t make money by giving even odds. Not really that odd considering its such a small spread and -102 for LSU is practically even money odds.
Posted by geauxpurple
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2014
16203 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:19 pm to
There has to be some padding there for the house profit. You are never going to get 50/50 odds.
Posted by junkfunky
Member since Jan 2011
35687 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:33 pm to
It's the Jews.

Sorry, juice.
Posted by UncleRuckus
Member since Feb 2013
9581 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 10:58 pm to
The book is gonna make juice.
Posted by EastWestConnection
Denver/Shenzhen/Belfast
Member since Jul 2024
1104 posts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 11:10 pm to
I rarely ever bet on lsu, I dont want to ruin the game by worrying about my bet. I just want the tigers to win.
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