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Started By
Message
re: Official: Tropical Depression Bill
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:58 pm to Mr Personality
Posted on 6/15/15 at 12:58 pm to Mr Personality
DOW sent out a Management Bulletin this morning for the Freeport plant. Non-essential personnel not to report to work tonite/tomorrow unless directed to do so by their Supervisor.
1
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:12 pm to fightin tigers
Lake Arlington, as well as every other reservoir in DFW, just recently got back to "normal" levels 
normal meaning full. which it hadn't been full in my lifetime until a couple weeks ago. if we get 6-8 more inches here, and a few more north of us, it's going to bust it's banks again but maybe even worse
normal meaning full. which it hadn't been full in my lifetime until a couple weeks ago. if we get 6-8 more inches here, and a few more north of us, it's going to bust it's banks again but maybe even worse
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:20 pm to RummelTiger
Invest 91 will mess with Texas
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:46 pm to LSU 318 LSU
12Z model trends have been encouraging for the Houston area with a westward shift of the axis of heaviest rainfall. Austin to DFW look to be under the gun based on the latest data. Also, visible sat presentation continues to improve, esp in the upper levels. It will be interesting to see what recon finds later this afternoon.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:49 pm to rds dc
Anything falling upstream of Shreveport in the red River watershed is going to add to the swollen Red river. Should Wright Patman and Texoma both catch a pile of rain and get over their dams at the same time it will be pretty hairy.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 1:59 pm to TigerDog83
Canyon Lake has been letting out water for 2 weeks now. The comal and Guadalupe rivers are severely swollen as a result. This could get bad in a lot of places.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 2:08 pm to Amazing Moves
quote:
?#?2PMUpdate?: Invest 91L is starting to get its act together QUICKLY. As you see from satellite it has that "LOOK" now. I think at any point now the ?#?NHC? will find that closed low and declare this Tropical Storm BILL. I said earlier this morning that Louisiana looked to be in the clear but please stay on alert, this system is so large that severe outer rain bands are already coming ashore along the ?#?Texas? and Louisiana Gulf coast. Please everyone along the Texas/Louisiana coast brace for the worst it never hurts and follow ALL local weather warnings. Tropical Storm force winds have already been reported in parts of SW ?#?Louisiana?. You should be able to feel that tropical moisture in the air..
Posted on 6/15/15 at 3:19 pm to tgrbaitn08
that last frame it looks like a storm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 3:21 pm to tgrbaitn08
For whatever it's worth, from the NHC homepage:
quote:
NHC is not planning to initiate advisories on the system in the Gulf of Mexico at 5 PM. Next aircraft will be in the system before 8 PM.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 3:25 pm to Amazing Moves
quote:
comal and Guadalupe rivers
Comal is fine, Guad was 5-6,000 cfs when they were letting water out. They've toned it down in preparation for this storm, currently around 2,000 cfs. Canyon Lake is still 10 feet above flood pool.
As long as the rain doesn't screw up the Comal, which it shouldn't, then I should be good to go for this weekend. Comal drops really fast.
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 5:16 pm to RummelTiger
Should mostly miss LA right?
Posted on 6/15/15 at 5:19 pm to Upperdecker
SW LA will get some rain, and NW LA will likely have some serious flooding issues.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 5:43 pm to RummelTiger
Recon is in the air again. Satellite presentation looks ok with signs of improving outflow. The thing to watch for this evening will be if convection can maintain and tighten up the LLC or will it pulse in and out. There were some signs of dry air in the mid levels early today and if that hasn't mixed out then convection could struggle to maintain.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 5:45 pm to rds dc
If the winds are there, why not call it a subtropical storm? Or does it not meet those characteristics either?
Posted on 6/15/15 at 5:52 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
If the winds are there, why not call it a subtropical storm? Or does it not meet those characteristics either?
Correct, it will go straight to TS once recon can find a closed LLC.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 6:01 pm to rds dc
But have there not been subtropical storms before (the A-name this year, right), where it's not 100% tropical but still has the wind speed?
Posted on 6/15/15 at 6:19 pm to rds dc
hurricane hunters just found a low of 1003mb ~27.017N 93.850W.
eta: most likely an anomaly - average surf press at 1007 mb now
eta: most likely an anomaly - average surf press at 1007 mb now
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 6:57 pm to Scoop
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of
low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas
coast indicate that the center has become better defined since
earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be
initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.
Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with
the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of
low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas
coast indicate that the center has become better defined since
earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be
initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.
Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with
the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 7:21 pm to GEAUXmedic
Still waiting for a vortex data message.. appears to be elongated though
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 7:30 pm
Posted on 6/15/15 at 7:45 pm to GEAUXmedic
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/20/16 at 10:18 pm
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