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re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Posted on 2/9/18 at 11:45 pm to LSUcajun77
Posted on 2/9/18 at 11:45 pm to LSUcajun77
Dont like the heavier stuff SW of here at start time as it will flow up here eventually. Didn't get sounding off this run to see conditions at that time.
The rain moves in later on my high res model of choice, and the other decent one (NAM) has tended to agree. The problem is, there's a small chance of severe storms earlier in the day. So models show it looking actually Rainer into the evening, the small but there chance of severe weather would make it worth going off at scheduled time imo. It's the best balace between when short range models show rain and the small potential of severe weather early in the day into even the early afternoon.
You'll run fine, it'll be wet and rainy at times. It'll be warm enough though where some bourbon will make the rain just fun to parade through. Have some dry clothes at the extravaganza and you'll have a good day, imho for this current time.
The rain moves in later on my high res model of choice, and the other decent one (NAM) has tended to agree. The problem is, there's a small chance of severe storms earlier in the day. So models show it looking actually Rainer into the evening, the small but there chance of severe weather would make it worth going off at scheduled time imo. It's the best balace between when short range models show rain and the small potential of severe weather early in the day into even the early afternoon.
You'll run fine, it'll be wet and rainy at times. It'll be warm enough though where some bourbon will make the rain just fun to parade through. Have some dry clothes at the extravaganza and you'll have a good day, imho for this current time.
2
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:31 am to Duke
Looking at the radar there is a lot of rain in the gulf and Texas. Are you thinking that is going to push through late tonight and early tomorrow morning?
Posted on 2/10/18 at 8:23 am to GWfool
quote:
The start of Endymion coincides with the highest probability for heavy rain in the city. Projections put those storms here between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m., but again there's still the question of whether the front will pack the same strength it's expected to show earlier in the day. Prepare for a worst-case scenario -- isolated heavy downpours -- and hope for the best.
Prayers for Endymion
Posted on 2/10/18 at 9:53 am to Duke
I don't get Accuweather, it shows cloudy chance of rain only at 50% for BR around noon...
Posted on 2/10/18 at 9:58 am to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Accuweather,
I don't think I've seen that website ever be accurate, even with it's chosen title.
Posted on 2/10/18 at 10:17 am to GWfool
So the radar looks awful out to the west. My HRRR has really brightened up compared to last night (this isn't a good thing) but turns out it still has NOLA dry for the early portions of Endymion.
Weird looking temp profile with a sharp inversion at the surface and lacking lower level saturation despite the approaching rain shield. That profile, if correct, should act to hold the rain off longer despite how bad it's going to look on radar approaching the area.
This is for around 7 tonight, and yes still pretty damn good for the NOLA area. It looks bad right now on your radars, but it appears New Orleans might just get really lucky and it all end up over the Lake and the Northshore.
BR gonna washout though.
Weird looking temp profile with a sharp inversion at the surface and lacking lower level saturation despite the approaching rain shield. That profile, if correct, should act to hold the rain off longer despite how bad it's going to look on radar approaching the area.
This is for around 7 tonight, and yes still pretty damn good for the NOLA area. It looks bad right now on your radars, but it appears New Orleans might just get really lucky and it all end up over the Lake and the Northshore.
BR gonna washout though.
Posted on 2/10/18 at 10:26 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
I don't think I've seen that website ever be accurate, even with it's chosen title.
Pretty awful. Deleting that app
Posted on 2/10/18 at 11:26 am to Impotent Waffle
What are y’all seeing for Tuesday? Thanks for all of the in depth reports!
Posted on 2/10/18 at 6:40 pm to Palmetto08
Nature played nice for Endymion today. Few passing showers but pretty calm compared to the fears earlier this week.
Now to tomorrow:
NAM has a pretty steady light rain all afternoon. HRRR has less consistent rain but with a good thunderstorm rolling over for Thoth. Things will probably be good for Bacchus as it looks right now.
So yeah, nothing much has changed this evening. Glad Endymion got a good ride, now hoping not to catch a thunderstorm to dampen Thoth tomorrow.
Now to tomorrow:
NAM has a pretty steady light rain all afternoon. HRRR has less consistent rain but with a good thunderstorm rolling over for Thoth. Things will probably be good for Bacchus as it looks right now.
So yeah, nothing much has changed this evening. Glad Endymion got a good ride, now hoping not to catch a thunderstorm to dampen Thoth tomorrow.
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:25 pm to Duke
Looks like New Orleans is fixing to get a decent storm roughly 15 to 20 minutes from now unless it goes east od the city.
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:41 pm to lsuman25
Yeah, it's incoming. Knock the tents down because there ought to be a bit of wind coming with the rain.
Though Endymion might have made it clean but the back end is probably going to be nice and wet from this.
Though Endymion might have made it clean but the back end is probably going to be nice and wet from this.
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:43 pm to Duke
The flood waters going to float all the trash away
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:44 pm to fightin tigers
Just changed the oil in my lawnmower.
She finna eat.
She finna eat.
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:49 pm to Duke
Forecast still looking really gloom for tomorrow though. Anyone think that it won't be as bad as they are still saying?
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:49 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:51 pm to Duke
quote:
with a good thunderstorm rolling over for Thoth
That's what I'm seeing too, ugh
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:53 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Bourbon Cam
Worse Uptown.
Posted on 2/10/18 at 7:56 pm to QuietTiger
Lightening, thunder and heavy thunderstorms over Endymion right now.
It’s shite show
That’s pretty much what the experts were predicting
It’s shite show
That’s pretty much what the experts were predicting
This post was edited on 2/10/18 at 7:57 pm
Posted on 2/10/18 at 8:00 pm to tgrbaitn08
How much of Endymion is still rolling?
Posted on 2/10/18 at 8:01 pm to BayouBengals18
I don’t know. But it’s bad.
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