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re: New Year’s Day Severe Weather Thread - Enhanced Risk in AL, TN, MS, AR
Posted on 1/1/22 at 6:06 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 1/1/22 at 6:06 am to Roll Tide Ravens
OP updated.
0
Posted on 1/1/22 at 6:24 am to Roll Tide Ravens
6:20am on January 1st and it is 70 degrees outside at my house north of Birmingham. Incredible.
Posted on 1/1/22 at 6:35 am to Roll Tide Ravens
We’ve got a disagreement between SPC and NWS Birmingham about how far south the enhanced risk should go. As you can see in this graphic, NWS Birmingham does not have the enhanced risk as far south on their graphic:
Posted on 1/1/22 at 6:48 am to Roll Tide Ravens
SPC cut back the southern end of the enhanced area.
This post was edited on 1/1/22 at 6:49 am
Posted on 1/1/22 at 7:56 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Molly McCollum on the job on TWC! 
Posted on 1/1/22 at 8:03 am to BoogaBear
quote:
We're in Pelham
Bear, we’re in Pelham too. 2021 sucked, with the F3 in March and the flood in October. Hopefully our I-59 shield will keep them north!
Posted on 1/1/22 at 8:04 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Rain and snow here tomorrow.
Posted on 1/1/22 at 8:38 am to Roll Tide Ravens
I’m in Bryant AL in the very northeast corner of the state. We’re staying in some cabins up on top of a bluff looking over the river.
I’m wondering if we should head back home this afternoon.
I’m wondering if we should head back home this afternoon.
Posted on 1/1/22 at 9:44 am to tilco
Flooding has been the story so far. However, there is lots of clearing across the warm sector already. I'm sitting at 72°/66° with sunshine and 15mph+ Southerly winds in North AL. Not necessarily what you want to see on a day like today.
Posted on 1/1/22 at 9:44 am to tilco
Get back in tomorrow tonight. Hopefully everything is okay and doesn’t snow too much
Posted on 1/1/22 at 9:48 am to LegendInMyMind
The last run of the HRRR aint pretty. Lots of curved cells ahead of the main line.
Really hoping we just stay linear with all the forcing.
Balls its cold here btw. 9 degrees now and snowing still and we got enough snow last night to mean I need to clear the driveway.
Really hoping we just stay linear with all the forcing.
Balls its cold here btw. 9 degrees now and snowing still and we got enough snow last night to mean I need to clear the driveway.
Posted on 1/1/22 at 9:50 am to Roll Tide Ravens
We’re under a winter weather warning this morning. Expecting a blizzard.
Posted on 1/1/22 at 9:54 am to Duke
quote:
The last run of the HRRR aint pretty. Lots of curved cells ahead of the main line.
I dug into the CAMs last night. Haven't done much this morning, though.
It was weird. NAM had storms in NW AL last night around 9-10pm. Hell, I pulled a PDS sounding. HRRR had those storms, too, but farther North. Others didn't have them at all. Nothing ever developed that far East. The same can be said for later development in regards to time and spread. This has just been weird, and I think it has turned into more of a now casting than anything. Of course it has, it is pretty much here.
That front/trough starting its move East will settle it, of course. I guess we are going to see.
Ryan Hall is going to be streaming from the floodwaters it seems.
This post was edited on 1/1/22 at 9:56 am
Posted on 1/1/22 at 9:58 am to LegendInMyMind
The trough has been slowing up on the models for the past couple of days and just pushing back the storms on the CAMs I suspect.
I didnt did in deep this morning either, just saw the radar depiction and wasnt happy with the result.
I didnt did in deep this morning either, just saw the radar depiction and wasnt happy with the result.
Posted on 1/1/22 at 10:04 am to Duke
Nope, don't care for that look:
And I've been watching the UH, and the long-track swaths have been there for a while now:
And I believe HRRR is undergoing the temp by a couple degrees. It at least is at initiation. It won't take much with this sun and wind to get those upper 70s into North AL.
And I've been watching the UH, and the long-track swaths have been there for a while now:
And I believe HRRR is undergoing the temp by a couple degrees. It at least is at initiation. It won't take much with this sun and wind to get those upper 70s into North AL.
This post was edited on 1/1/22 at 10:09 am
Posted on 1/1/22 at 10:53 am to Roll Tide Ravens
It was a big nothingburger in DFW yesterday. Not even a thunderstorm. Just constant light drizzle. Hoping for the same for all of you today.
Posted on 1/1/22 at 10:54 am to LegendInMyMind
You've just gotta love Cameron Nixon's hodograph work:
Posted on 1/1/22 at 11:18 am to LegendInMyMind
My weather station says 75 degrees with the sun shining off and on here in NE AL. Hoping for a bust but looks like everything may be coming together for a rough afternoon here.
Posted on 1/1/22 at 11:27 am to NEALCD
We want to drive up to Springville and visit my wife’s (no photos) fam this afternoon but i don’t think we will…maybe later tonight
Posted on 1/1/22 at 11:28 am to NEALCD
quote:
Hoping for a bust but looks like everything may be coming together for a rough afternoon here.
If the lid stays on we may he alright. The cap is the biggest limiting factor at this point.
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