re: New thread started for Beryl

Just ordered my blue shed.

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I was listening to NPR, and they said that the NOAAs forecast of a historically active season was due to high ocean temps. They then went on to explain that the high ocean temperatures are the result of climate change caused by humans burning fossil fuels.

Is this true?

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Climate change (global warming) is responsible for everything. It's even killing the dust bunnies under my bed and has resulted in the Tooth Fairy giving children only two cents for a tooth.

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he frick they were.

El Nino was on. Most preseason forecasts were average to slightly below. The bold forecasts when slightly above and were correct but to say the forecast was for an aggressive season last year is plainly false.

The forecasts for a very active season this year are based on low shear with a La Nina and historically (based on our records) high Atlantic sea surface temps.

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It seems most real weather people are expecting an active season and with the reasons Duke mentions it looks like it will be true.

We are planning\budgeting for responding to at least 3 storms. I AM NOT HOPING FOR THAT, but it takes a lot of prep to be ready. We can respond from western LA (Lake Charles etc) to Tampa so that is a lot of area to plan for.

We have good contacts for Lake Charles, Prairieville, Houma, Lafayette LA. Satsuma and Lillian AL. Crestview, Apalachicola, Crawfordville, and Madison FL. If anyone has a contact for an area where we dont already have please email me at alphanadomegatd@gmail.com. We try to have places picked out so when an event happens we already have contacts and locations ready, because the people at these locations are usually busy with dealing with the effects of the storm and if we have all the communications already worked out we dont need to bother them as much. What we need are large parking lots with at least 2 entrances, we hand out the food in a drive thru style process. We also need running water but nothing else, we bring everything else that is needed to provide
1200-1400 meals a day.

Our website if anyone wants to see it or donate is Here to Serve

That heat ridge will suppress formations until late August

I have a charter trip scheduled in Grand Isle on the 17th. Go figure.

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That heat ridge will suppress formations until late August

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Oh there's gonna be a nice ridge over the Atlantic for some time this summer.

Doesn't have to be a strong system to make things go sideways. Any system that brings moisture to Louisiana right now (and is slow moving) will bring floods. Most of the Baton Rouge area is already close to saturation.

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El Nino was on. Most preseason forecasts were average to slightly below. The bold forecasts when slightly above and were correct but to say the forecast was for an aggressive season last year is plainly false.

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Right and wrong

May 25, 2023:

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NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.

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Later on Aug 10th:

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Due to current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm sea surface temperatures, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center—a division of the National Weather Service—has increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to an “above normal” level of activity from a “near normal” level with their most recent update. The outlook now includes a 70% chance of 14-21 named storms, of which 6-11 could become hurricanes, and 2-5 could become major hurricanes. The updated outlook also states that current conditions are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event.

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Most preseason forecasts

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Later on Aug 10th

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Wasnt talking about late season adjustments.

June activity bodes poorly for later in the season