re: New thread started for Beryl

Does it seem likely that that by late Monday or Tuesday we would have a much clearer picture of weather it's potentially a gulf threat? Maybe Wednesday?


Or I guess a better question is: do you have any estimation on when we would have a clearer picture on that?

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What are "PV streamers" and why should I care about it?

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Don't you understand how teasers work? Watch the video.

Thing really bottoms out around OKC, doesn't it

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Don't you understand how teasers work? Watch the video.

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I watched the entire video before I asked the question. I even googled the term and that still didn't enlighten me.

Too much weather-nerd jargon in the explanations that I found.

Even the "PV" (potential vorticity) doesn't tell me what the impact might be on Beryl.

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Too much weather-nerd jargon in the explanations that I found.

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They really are a pretentious lot speaking in code like they're protecting the Republic from Russian spies. Might as well be talking in tongues.

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They really are a pretentious lot speaking in code

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Thank you. I thought I was the only one who thinks that way.

Alexandra said nothing to worry about.

Usually pretty good about following these threads and staying in the loop, but I’ve had a pretty hectic 48 hours so hadn’t really been following this thing


With that said- my entire family and extended family besides me left yesterday for a week in the Cayman’s. Safe to say I’ll never see any of them again at this point?

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With that said- my entire family and extended family besides me left yesterday for a week in the Cayman’s. Safe to say I’ll never see any of them again at this point?

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I'm supposed to fly there on Wednesday.

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I watched the entire video before I asked the question. I even googled the term and that still didn't enlighten me.

Too much weather-nerd jargon in the explanations that I found.

Even the "PV" (potential vorticity) doesn't tell me what the impact might be on Beryl.

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Assuming you're not trolling, which goes against my number #1 rule of posting on the internet - #1 Assume Everyone is Trolling.

PV is definitely "jargon," but it helps visualize multiple things at once and how they might impact a system.

Traditionally, you can look from top down, 200mb (top of atmosphere) down to 850mb (near surface).

I find the PV framework to be the easiest to visualize what's going on. I'll pull from my post this morning highlighting the 0628 12z GFS PV map:

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There have been some favorable upper air pattern changes in the models over the past 24 hrs. The upper trough that the models have imparting shear on Beryl as it moves through the Caribbean has started to trend weaker. The result, in some models, Beryl is getting deeper into the Caribbean as a stronger system, and this opens the door for a potential track into the Gulf.

Yesterday's 12z GFS had a pretty stout upper trough digging across Florida and into the Southern Gulf. Flow around this feature produces shear that negatively impacts the system. In this run, the system is sheared apart, with only the remnant vort making it westward before dissipating over the Yucatan.

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Other ways to represent that:



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or



In simplest terms, orange (positive PV) is bad, and blue (negative PV) is good. The blue can represent the outflow from a system, and the orange can represent shear. You can get shear magnitude and/or a sense of potential outflow channels from the different images above. However, it's hard to tell if outflow could potentially offset shear. In the PV framework, it is a bit easier to "eyeball" the potential for outflow to push back on shear. Now, this is a gross simplification, but maybe it gets to the point a bit.

Probably not, but at least I tried