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re: nevermind

Posted on 12/13/17 at 12:32 pm to
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora
Member since Sep 2012
76162 posts
Posted on 12/13/17 at 12:32 pm to
I don't even live there but this scares the shite out of me.
Posted by JudgeHolden
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
18578 posts
Posted on 12/13/17 at 12:42 pm to
So today on the OT I learned that eBay sells mostly stolen goods, and that BR and NOLA are doomed. Thanks, OT.
Posted by Martini
Near Athens
Member since Mar 2005
49697 posts
Posted on 12/13/17 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

So today on the OT I learned that eBay sells mostly stolen goods, and that BR and NOLA are doomed. Thanks, OT.


Much better education here than the politics board. That’s little bus riding Special Ed over there.

I’ll say this, whenever the river decides she wants to turn a bit more south there is not a damn thing we can do about it and I do believe at some point it will happen. We will just have to learn to live with the aftermath.
Posted by White Roach
Member since Apr 2009
9666 posts
Posted on 12/13/17 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

I agree about the saltwater intrusion, but not the idea that the ports would be unaffected. Reduced water flow means that the suspended sediments would settle that much faster. I've seen too many engineers scream "That's theoretically impossible!" when their views get ruined because they were too myopic to take into consideration that shite happens that you never planned for.


I don't think the authors are saying the ports will be unaffected, just that in the long term a 50' channel will be easier to maintain.

Currently, the diversion into the Atchafalaya basin is 30% of the Mississippi's flow. If the ORCS fails, they proposed that 70% of the Mississippi's flow would run into the Atchafalaya. The remaining 30% would flow at a much slower rate and much of the sediment would fall out in the shoaling area south of ORCS and north of BR. I believe this is about 45 river miles. Much less sediment would be left to clog the shipping channel from BR south to the (old) mouth of the river.

Eventually, from BR south would turn into a salt water tidal estuary. The stretch of river between ORCS and BR may almost completely shoal over, given enough time.
Posted by White Roach
Member since Apr 2009
9666 posts
Posted on 12/13/17 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

I’ll say this, whenever the river decides she wants to turn a bit more south there is not a damn thing we can do about it and I do believe at some point it will happen. We will just have to learn to live with the aftermath.


The USACE recognized that the river wanted to make the jump back around 1950. I believe I read that some engineers were seeing signs of this happening as far back as the 1830s. By the mid-50s, something was actually being done about it.

I believe the river has shifted course seven times over the past thousand years or so. It's estimated that it shifts every 100 to 150 years, so it's definitely going to happen at again at some point. It's all about mitigating the consequences now.
Posted by JudgeHolden
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
18578 posts
Posted on 12/13/17 at 2:41 pm to
quote:

Much better education here than the politics board. That’s little bus riding Special Ed over there.


It is an intriguing group of people. If I were a sociologist, I'd make a career out of studying that microcosm.

quote:

I’ll say this, whenever the river decides she wants to turn a bit more south there is not a damn thing we can do about it and I do believe at some point it will happen. We will just have to learn to live with the aftermath.


You are certainly right, sir. I was there in 73 when they opened Morganza and the earth on both ends shook. I was there in 2011 when they opened it again, and damn, it did not look up to the task.

I know they have added capacity since 73, but she will go where she goes when she wants to go there.
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21849 posts
Posted on 12/13/17 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

Reduced water flow means that the suspended sediments would settle that much faster.


You have to think about where the soil transport is coming from. Whatever soil is in the water will drop out, and if theres enough depth left, there will be some residual flow coming over.

My concern would be depending on the flow coming down between the stretch between NO and BR you could have big problems for the stretch of land between ...

The defining base elevation of the estuary would be sea level, and if the bottom of the river is higher than sea level at some point, theres the possibility the river dries out if theres not enough flow.

For example, BR is 56' above sea level, and the bottom of the river is 6' above MSL, the corps would have to excavate the difference to get to sea level, plus the depth of whatever channel they want. Thats a huge project.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
43087 posts
Posted on 12/13/17 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

For example, BR is 56' above sea level, and the bottom of the river is 6' above MSL, the corps would have to excavate the difference to get to sea level, plus the depth of whatever channel they want. Thats a huge project.


But you have to factor in global warming, in a few decades sea level will be 10 foot higher, and you wouldn't have to excavate as much, right?

;-)
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21849 posts
Posted on 12/13/17 at 4:16 pm to
quote:

But you have to factor in global warming, in a few decades sea level will be 10 foot higher, and you wouldn't have to excavate as much, right?


BR would never have to worry about the river flooding ever again
Posted by wadewilson
Member since Sep 2009
41938 posts
Posted on 12/18/17 at 10:21 pm to
quote:

Water follows the path of least resistance. Miss R. would once again change its delta and flow down the Atchafalaya River. All ports from BR to the mouth would no longer be able to handle ocean going vessels.



On the plus side, byebye Krotz Springs and their shitty speed traps.
Posted by tigerpimpbot
Chairman of the Pool Board
Member since Nov 2011
69252 posts
Posted on 12/18/17 at 10:23 pm to
quote:

On the plus side, byebye Krotz Springs and their shitty speed traps.



You bumped this thread to talk shite about Krotz Springs.
Posted by wadewilson
Member since Sep 2009
41938 posts
Posted on 12/18/17 at 10:26 pm to
I'll bump a thread from 2003 and link the archived version of it to talk shite about Krotz Springs.

But seriously, I've had this thread open for 4 days and haven't read it yet.
Posted by tigerpimpbot
Chairman of the Pool Board
Member since Nov 2011
69252 posts
Posted on 12/18/17 at 10:26 pm to
Posted by wadewilson
Member since Sep 2009
41938 posts
Posted on 12/18/17 at 10:28 pm to
I will go to the library and snapchat a microfiche of an article from the 70's to talk shite about Krotz Springs and their damn speed trap.
Posted by beachdude
FL
Member since Nov 2008
6628 posts
Posted on 12/19/17 at 1:37 am to
Sorry. I have not read all of the posts in this thread. However, if you wish to know the answer to the question, read John McPhee's essay "The Control of Nature" from 1978. Same story, first verse.
Posted by shawnlsu
Member since Nov 2011
23682 posts
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:46 am to
quote:

byebye Krotz Springs and their shitty speed traps.


I will gladly go the speed limit to have a boudin wrap or 10
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
173818 posts
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:48 am to
Let's all meet up at the Black Hawk Lounge and discuss our doomsday scenarios.
Posted by tommy2tone1999
St. George, LA
Member since Sep 2008
7841 posts
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:51 am to
quote:

I believe the river has shifted course seven times over the past thousand years or so. It's estimated that it shifts every 100 to 150 years, so it's definitely going to happen at again at some point. It's all about mitigating the consequences now.


Here is the history of the river delta
Posted by Cajun367
S. Louisiana
Member since Oct 2017
1943 posts
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:38 am to
Does the river change course because what was the least path of resistance no longer is over time (due to sediment accumulation)?

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