re: Nate silver: the slowdown in CV19 cases in NOLA is unlike anything we have seen elsewhere

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He literally posted evidence to my point

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Nate Silver is an absolute hack who cries himself to sleep every night that Hillary lost the 2016 election

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Nate Silver was running projections that showed a significant chance that Trump would win the election several days out and was sounding the alarm.

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The logic goes like this (Note: I don't the actually values. Please correct me). What was the estimate of deaths ORIGINALLY to justify the lockdown (2.2M). What was the estimate of deaths ORIGINALLY with social distance mitigation in place (180k).

If hypothetically, the United States ends up with 40k deaths, is it fair to assume that the assumption that was made to justify the shutdown was HUGELY off the mark? Were they so off the mark, that we wouldn't have made the same decision with more accurate estimates? If so, given that we are talking TRILLIONS in economic damage, whose head should roll?

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The White House has not based any action on the Imperial College Model.

It has used the IMHE model - along with various other models. The IMHE model is the model that accounts for social restrictions. That model's first run had an upper range of 180,000 and a median projection of 82,000 deaths.

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Are you really suggesting that health departments all around the country and the world are basically completely staffed by liars and people that don't give a frick about ethics or integrity?

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I'm not sure there would be anyway to prove that given that we engaged in action that we can not retroactively undo.

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That said, remember that 2.2 million was the extreme upper range., not the median projection.

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The White House has not based any action on the Imperial College Model.

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Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action

It wasn’t so much the numbers themselves, frightening though they were, as who reported them: Imperial College London.

LONDON — When Boris Johnson was campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union in 2016 — a path that many experts warned would end in disaster for the country — one of his close allies, Michael Gove, famously declared that “people in this country have had enough of experts.”

Now, Mr. Gove and Mr. Johnson are leading the British government as it confronts the calamity of the coronavirus, and Mr. Johnson, now the prime minister, insists the process is being guided by experts. The trouble is, those experts can often disagree with each other or change their minds about the right course of action.

That messy back-and-forth has been on vivid display this week with the publication of a startling new report on the virus from a team at Imperial College in London. The report, which warned that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain, triggered a sudden shift in the government’s comparatively relaxed response to the virus.

American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public.

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Birx said the projections by Dr. Anthony Fauci that U.S. deaths could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million is a worst case scenario if the country did "nothing" to contain the outbreak, but said even "if we do things almost perfectly," she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths.

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