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re: Nate silver: the slowdown in CV19 cases in NOLA is unlike anything we have seen elsewhere
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:15 pm to Oilfieldbiology
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:15 pm to Oilfieldbiology
Yea still not seeing it, hoss.
1
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:17 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
Can you not read? They predicted 200,000
You’re missing a couple words my guy. Pls fix.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:17 pm to moneyg
quote:
You can't prove that social distancing has helped. But, we logically think it can.
There is a tremendous amount of evidence from both the US and Europe about the immediate effectiveness of social restrictions.
quote:
What was the median projection? And, was that number used to justify the shutdown?
I want to say 1.6 million but I'm not sure that is correct
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:17 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
Why is that obvious?
Seriously? How could someone justify taking extreme measures if it didn't have some point of reference of what would happen without taking those actions?
It's self evident to me that the decision makers had to make a call based on an estimate of what the deaths would be with social distancing we ended up taking vs. without the extreme measures we ended up taking.
Do you think it's reasonable to make a decision without both of those values?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:17 pm to JohnnyKilroy
You’re not seeing that Brix and Fauci claimed that if we did everything perfect we would reduce the number of deaths down to 200,000? You’re not seeing that as a low end
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:17 pm to jchamil
quote:They could. They could also be under-reported given the number of at-home deaths some places are seeing.
I'm asking if you think that the numbers reported could be a little inflated.
quote:You think nobody checks each other's work? If a few people are reporting false numbers, someone else knows about it. You are accusing a whole lot of people.
The staffs wouldn't have to be completely full of liars.
quote:
Not really.
quote:So, you're "not really" suggesting that people are lying, but then you throw in a little FYI about financial incentives to do so?
You realize there is financial incentive to inflate the numbers right?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:18 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
You’re missing a couple words my guy. Pls fix.
quote:
if we do things almost perfectly," she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:19 pm to Oilfieldbiology
Now tell me what the meaning of the two words between “predicts” and “200,000” is. Thanks
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:19 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
I’d like to see those. This may be the Mandela effect, but I remember 538 showing Hilary as the overwhelming favorite deep into election night.
Not saying you are wrong. I’m just saying that is what my fragile memory banks have stored. Maybe he was talking out of both sides of his mouth.
His model showed something like 33% Trump, 67% Hilary which was the odds. People thought he projected Hilary would get 67% of the vote and that is NOT what he was saying. He was literally saying that Trump had a 1 in 3 chance of winning which was MUCH better odds than anyone gave Trump at that time. Silver also shut his models down during the day/morning of the election and didn't update his model through the night as others did. So as the night went on, other models were adjusting for Trump's victory after the early signs of it became apparent. 538 was still showing 67% chance of Hilary winning.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:20 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:No. That is the high end, upper bound, of the range that we could bring it down to.
You’re not seeing that Brix and Fauci claimed that if we did everything perfect we would reduce the number of deaths down to 200,000? You’re not seeing that as a low end
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:21 pm to ashy larry
quote:
His model showed something like 33% Trump, 67%
No, it was 71% and change to 28% and change.
People need to quit pretending like he believed Trump had a good chance. He didn't.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:22 pm to moneyg
quote:
Seriously? How could someone justify taking extreme measures if it didn't have some point of reference of what would happen without taking those actions?
Maybe.
But I honestly think the stronger argument would be looking at the IMHE models and seeing that even with strict social restrictions, the median projections would be more deaths than any flu season we have had since 1918.
quote:
Do you think it's reasonable to make a decision without both of those values?
Sure, but I am thinking about weight and I think, if it were me, the IMHE model would carry more weight because the numbers were tighter than the IC.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:22 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
You’re not seeing that Brix and Fauci claimed that if we did everything perfect we would reduce the number of deaths down to 200,000? You’re not seeing that as a low end
You aren't reading your own article.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:22 pm to Korkstand
quote:
The White House coronavirus response coordinator said Monday that she is "very worried about every city in the United States" and projects 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths as a best case scenario.
In an interview on "TODAY," Dr. Deborah Birx painted a grim message about the expected fatalities, echoing that they could hit more than 2 million without any measures, as coronavirus cases continue to climb throughout the country.
It’s the upper end of the lower range with everything perfect. The upper end predicted was 2 million.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:24 pm to Korkstand
quote:
So, you're "not really" suggesting that people are lying, but then you throw in a little FYI about financial incentives to do so?
I'm saying "not really" in that I'm not accusing everyone in healthcare across the world of fraud like you suggest. You're not being honest if you don't think there are people inflating numbers to take advantage of the money being thrown around.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:25 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
It’s the upper end of the lower range with everything perfect. The upper end predicted was 2 million.
You are wrong.
You are basing your opinion of a journalist summary that is wrong and contradicted three paragraphs down.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:25 pm to Oilfieldbiology
There's no point in arguing with the chicken littles. If it saves one life they are perfectly willing to ruin the lives of 10 million others.
They are just as bad as the virus they claim to be combating. But at least the virus can't think for itself.
They are just as bad as the virus they claim to be combating. But at least the virus can't think for itself.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:25 pm to moneyg
quote:What a fricking ticky tack correction.
No, it was 71% and change to 28% and change.
quote:28% is a considerably better chance than most gave him at the time.
People need to quit pretending like he believed Trump had a good chance. He didn't.
What people need to quit pretending is that Silver was "wrong" about the election. It just makes you look like a fricking idiot that has zero understanding of probability.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:25 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
Do you think it's reasonable to make a decision without both of those values?
Sure, but I am thinking about weight and I think, if it were me, the IMHE model would carry more weight because the numbers were tighter than the IC.
Wait, I must be misunderstanding you.
Are you saying that it's reasonable that the economy was shut down causing Trillions in damages without even having an expectation as to how many deaths we would have without social distancing?
Or, maybe you are saying that the IMHE model also had an expection for deaths without social distancing. If so, please provide those values.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:26 pm to jchamil
quote:
You're not being honest if you don't think there are people inflating numbers to take advantage of the money being thrown around.
There is no money being thrown around.
We have had three different posters who work in hospital administration explain this.
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