re: Multi-day Severe Weather Threat: 3/23-3/24

The probabilities for the tornado watch issued along the MS River are just below PDS criteria.

Cell south of Jackson just caught a warning.

Cell near Winnsboro, La is one to watch.

Looks like it may be getting close to putting one down. It has been trying for a while.

quote:

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Is that mess of warned storms going to go north of you?

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Yes.

Really not a whole lot out there nothing south of Arkansas state line seems to be holding together besides that one cell east of Jackson. All the convection within the moderate area is pretty much meh.

Watch, these small cells in west MS will blow up later in east Ms and west Al. Always do. North La starting to look like a complete bust

ETA saying that seems the worst stuff is trending more north so far but it is still early. I expected it to be worse farther south like north La and Jackson north to hwy 82

If we see any of these cells take off it will be because the LLJ has kicked in. There seems to be some issues with shear in the mid levels that is working against mesos being able to build and sustain themselves. The LLJ has been delayed on models this entire time. Now, it may be delayed and a bit misplaced to help these storms get going. That said, I worry about the line as it moves east and that jet does crank. That's what has led to the expansion of the Enhanced area earlier today. It is wind-driven, mostly, but with the shear already in place and a boost from the jet, that line worries me a bit.....especially being that it will come through in the dead of night.

The bowing segment of the line that has been consistent on CAMs up in north AL tonight/early morning has a chance to bring big winds with it if it develops that way.

Cleveland ms about to get hammered I hope that warned area doesn’t drop a tornado it doesn’t appear to have one at the moment. It’s headed right for delta state campus

It’s warned now

Take cover