re: Multi-day Severe Weather Threat: 3/23-3/24

quote:

---

SPC AC 261633

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening.

...Deep South/Southeast... Some severe potential, mostly in the form of hail/wind, may continue early this afternoon across the South Carolina Piedmont/southern North Carolina. This environment also remains conditionally favorable for a few severe storms to the west across southeast Mississippi, south-central Alabama, into west-central Georgia near the effective front. This sub-regional corridor may be experiencing a bout of shortwave ridging, but that at the same time, the boundary layer will continue to diurnally destabilize.

Focus then quickly turns farther west to the potential for deep convective development along the northward-shifting boundary from east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, which could potentially occur relatively early, during early/mid-afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 354 for more short-term details. Low-level shear/SRH will not initially be strong but strengthen through late afternoon/early evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds increase and low-level hodographs enlarge. Storms, including initially semi-discrete/intense supercells, will tend to cluster/gradually grow upscale along the boundary with hail/wind potential, but an increased concern for tornadoes, some of which may be strong/intense (EF2+), would exist with supercells that evolve/persist in a semi-discrete manner south of the boundary and move into and/or develop across south-central/southeast Mississippi, and eventually southwest/southern Alabama this evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds further intensify.

...Illinois/Indiana... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across eastern/northeast Illinois as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk, and perhaps a brief tornado across north-central/northeast Illinois.

..Guyer/Moore.. 03/26/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

---

quote:

---

Any weather reports of crazy hail out there for those storms this morning and today?

---

quote:

---

What’s keeping the severe threat in such a narrow corridor and not expanding north?

---