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Started By
Message
re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:17 pm to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:17 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
More lies by the ACOE
I wanted to point this out when the talk of opening Morganza started. I caught the Corps in lies with information they released to the press over past few weeks. I had to piece together quotes from multiple articles & will just post all the links below at the end of my post.
The Corps said with this Morganza opening the flow rate through the floodgates would be less than it was in 2011.
quote:
After saying two weeks ago it had "no intention" of diverting river water from Morganza to Morgan City, the Corps said last week that opening the 65-year-old spillway for only the third time was becoming more likely. The Corps announced Monday its Mississippi Valley division commander had approved opening the structure.
quote:
Heath Jones, chief emergency manager for the Corps
quote:
Jones said the Morganza Spillway contains 125 bays and officials expect to open 20 to 25 of them. The opening will happen incrementally, with one gate being opened each of the first three days, followed by additional openings that could happen at a faster rate.
quote:
The Corps has the approval to open the Morganza Spillway, and if rain in the Arkansas and Missouri river valleys meets current forecasts, the operation will begin on June 2.
That process would divert approximately 150,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) from the Mississippi River into the Morganza Floodway to avoid water from overtopping the structure.
Officials tell The Advocate they expect to release less water this year than the last time the spillway was opened in 2011. But they stress with more rain falling north in the Mississippi River basin, their calculations could change.
The spillway was built in 1954 and has been opened just twice before.
quote:
So, learning from their mistakes, in 2011 the spillway opening the Corps started with two bays the first day, added seven more the next day and maxed out at 17 bays by day five.
In 2011, the flow rate through the spillway maxed out at 181,000 thousand cubic feet per second on day six.
What makes this year different from 2011 is that there is a lot more water still upstream in the Arkansas, Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Although the maximum rate at which the water is expected to flow through the spillway might be less, the overall amount of water released could top 2011 if the river remains high for a longer time period.
quote:
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers plans to open the Morganza Floodway because forecasts indicate river elevations could overtop the control structure.
The Corps says the river is predicted to reach 60 feet at the control structure June 9 rather than the previously forecasted June 5. The Corps says they only intend to operate the spillway when needed so as to not put additional water into the Atchafalaya Basin.
quote:
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers plans to open the Morganza Floodway because forecasts indicate river elevations could overtop the control structure.
The Corps says the river is predicted to reach 60 feet at the control structure June 9 rather than the previously forecasted June 5. The Corps says they only intend to operate the spillway when needed so as to not put additional water into the Atchafalaya Basin.
Chip Kline, Chairman of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, says it’s unlikely that the June 6 opening day will be pushed back any further.
quote:
The Morganza Floodway was partially operated during the 1973 high water event to relieve pressure on Old River’s Low Sill Structure. Overall, the spillway structure fared well with minor scouring and slight damage to the stilling basin. Repairs have since taken place and the structure has been restored to its original state. Inspections are ongoing to ensure that the structure operates correctly in the event of an opening
Lol
Here are all the links:
Advocate article
KLFY article
KATC article
Corps site
WAFB article
Now the Corps did leave this out here.
quote:
The opening date could fluctuate, or the opening could be canceled altogether, depending on whether there are any major changes to the rainfall or river forecasts.
What I don't get is first off, how would have an opening this year resulted in less water in the basin than 2011 when the flood event has been ongoing for much longer, there is still much more water upstream (Arkansas & Oklahoma) & the Corps called for more bays to be opened than 2011?
Secondly, the Corps have said that at 60 ft Morganza would be overtopped yet the forecast crest at Red River Landing remains at 62.2 despite the announcement that Morganza will not be opened. So which is it?
This post was edited on 6/6/19 at 9:54 pm
1
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:18 pm to OleWarSkuleAlum
quote:
Just heard from a reliable source that the structure is unsound and that led to the decision not to open. They identified issues after the 2011 event, but due to funding and political reasons sat on their hands not making the necessary repairs. They are worried the entire structure will fail if they are forced to open the Morganza. So they are just going to let it ride true Louisiana style..
Get a grip man.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:22 pm to notiger1997
quote:
since the ORCS is compromised.
What incorrect about this statement? The ACOE tested the ORCS and the test came back “unsatisfactory” so they aren’t opening it.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:23 pm to MrLSU
So the ORCS is closed right now?
That is interesting.
That is interesting.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:26 pm to MrLSU
quote:
The ACOE tested the ORCS and the test came back “unsatisfactory” so they aren’t opening it.
Uh, the ORCS is absolutely operational right now, as it pretty much has been since it was finished.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:26 pm to Duke
The structure. Jesus you know what I’m talking about
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:27 pm to MrLSU
quote:
Devils Lake in BR water is high
Well you aren’t JBE since you are higher than the 4th floor. And if anything needs more water for a good flush is that lake.
And it does go into the river. It has a pump station between the Capital and First Circuit building by the Claiborne Building.
Where the First Circuit is was the OLOL Hospital before it moved to Essen Lane. I was born there.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:27 pm to MrLSU
quote:
since the ORCS is compromised.
What if I told you that the ORCS is fine and that the Corps really just isn’t opening Morganza because the water isn’t going to get as high as they thought?
ESPN 30 for 30 presents: When The Levees Hold, a Tigerdroppings Tale.
Tune in to the annual 2 month series..
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:30 pm to PhiTiger1764
Pearl clutching is strong here
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:33 pm to MrLSU
quote:
The ACOE tested the ORCS and the test came back “unsatisfactory” so they aren’t opening it.
You must mean Morganza.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:35 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
ESPN 30 for 30 presents: When The Levees Hold, a Tigerdroppings Tale.
Some of these people’s lip is so wrung out since it’s not going to fail Santa Claus isn’t going to stop at their house this year.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:35 pm to Hu_Flung_Pu
quote:
I don't understand why people use this saying. Have you taken physics? This is not simple. This requires extensive modeling research.
That was a tounge-in-cheek response to lil weewee, who said it was simple physics, which at its heart it is. All we need to know are the Navier-Stokes equations. Boom, done.
Obviously real world application of that is much more complex than that...which he clearly doesn’t understand. That was the point of my comment.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:38 pm to FutureMikeVIII
quote:Muh Delft3D FM
All we need to know are the Navier-Stokes equations.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 8:49 pm to jimbeam
Posted on 6/6/19 at 9:01 pm to FutureMikeVIII
quote:
All we need to know are the Navier-Stokes equations. Boom, done.
Oh yeah. I love it when you talk dirty.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 9:10 pm to BigBrod81
quote:
Secondly, the Corps have said that at 60 ft Morganza would be overtopped yet the forecast crest at Red River Landing remains at 62.2 despite the announcement that Morganza will not be opened. So which is it?
This is my question as well.
Morganza SOP calls for them to open up bays once water hits 60' NAVD.
Is USACE suggesting water wont get over 60' at Morganza?
Posted on 6/6/19 at 9:12 pm to NYNolaguy1
That's what I'm curious about too.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 9:21 pm to NYNolaguy1
Maybe they deviate since it won't be much above 60'.
Figure the damage done by long term opening of the spillway outweighs the risk.
Figure the damage done by long term opening of the spillway outweighs the risk.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 9:24 pm to Duke
So thats the most up to date hydrograph at Red River Landing, which is below ORCS, but slightly above Morganza.
It looks a lot like NOAA is/was planning on USACE opening Morganza...
If the crest really is at 62.2', are they really suggesting a 2' natural drop from the elevation gradient alone? I doubt theres that much elevation loss over such a short distance.
This post was edited on 6/6/19 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 6/6/19 at 9:26 pm to NYNolaguy1
Do those forecast take into consideration of opening spillways before they are open?
I don’t think they do
I don’t think they do
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