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re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:14 pm to trussthetruzz
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:14 pm to trussthetruzz
quote:
freezing line slowly builds north of what we’ve been seeing. I expect this to be a trend and SELA will miss out of the ice (luckily)
I've been thinking that pretty much this entire time but models do miss the forward extent of shallow but cold air masses enough that. At this point, the idea for Monday into Tuesday is pretty set. I don't expect much to change on the models but oscillating freezing lines from run to run. Waiting for the mesoscale models (NAM and HRRR) to be in range. The NAM especially is pretty good at seeing when the cold air is going to outrun where the globals think.
2
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:15 pm to Duke
quote:
I've been thinking that pretty much this entire time but models do miss the forward extent of shallow but cold air masses enough that. At this point, the idea for Monday into Tuesday is pretty set. I don't expect much to change on the models but oscillating freezing lines from run to run. Waiting for the mesoscale models (NAM and HRRR) to be in range. The NAM especially is pretty good at seeing when the cold air is going to outrun where the globals think.
You are late Duke, Peej already discussed this on previous pages. You have to get up pretty early to slide one by ol Peeej
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:15 pm to MrLSU
quote:
Southeast Louisiana will escape with no ice and no snow when all is said and done. I'm with Peej this is a hyped up drama filled thread with no real weather issues for anyone down here.
Nah we sledding in 14 inches of snow baw
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:18 pm to LSUWoodworker
Watching pj call someone out in a weather thread is like watching oweo call someone out in an arse kicking contest
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:19 pm to dukke v
quote:
Hey punk.... GFY.....
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:20 pm to rt3
quote:
more importantly... who's buying the slushes?
I have to ask, am I the only one who thinks cherry limeades are overrated?
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:25 pm to Duke
quote:
Waiting for the mesoscale models (NAM and HRRR) to be in range.
When does this typically happen? Tomorrow? Saturday?
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:26 pm to GEAUXmedic
NEW LIX AFD:
quote:
Monday, a cold front will be moving through the area. Rain chances
will be increased Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.
This rainfall is expected to be primarily light to moderate.
Temperatures will be approaching or below freezing for our
northernmost areas starting late Monday night. For some areas,
mainly our northernmost Louisiana parishes and southern
Misssissippi counties, the rain and cold temperatures will align
enough to potentially have some winter precipitation (mainly
freezing rain/sleet mix) late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The northshore areas could also see some wintery mix of
precipitation during the early morning hours Tuesday as well.
Despite the chance for winter precipitation, we are not expecting
any impacts or impactful accumulation.
However, this forecast is highly dependent upon how this system
develops over the next few days. Small changes could have a big
impact on the potential for winter weather.
Another concern for Tuesday morning apart from the type of
precipiation will be the temperatures. Lows on Tuesday morning are
expected to be well below freezing (low to mid 20s) and wind
chills will be in the upper 10s and low 20s for our northshore
areas, northern Louisiana parishes, and southern Mississippi
counties. Low temperatures will be at or just below freezing
(upper 20s to low 30s) and wind chills will be in the low 20s for
our southshore areas, southern Louisiana parishes and coastal
Mississippi counties. Those spending time outdoors Tuesday morning
and vulnerable populations will need to be especially careful
during these colder than normal conditions.
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:26 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
am I the only one who thinks cherry limeades are overrated?
I'll ask you the same question now, are you trying to catch hands?
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:27 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
When does this typically happen? Tomorrow? Saturday?
60 hours for NAM, 48 for HRRR (I think).
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:27 pm to TigerstuckinMS
The HRRR goes out 18 hours (it goes out farther four times a day) and is run every hour.
NAM goes out 60 hours I think and is run 4 times a day.
That is the 3km NAM, there are lower resolution models that go out farther but the 3k is the only one I'm concerned with here.
So you know, late Saturday into Sunday for SELA into Mississippi.
NAM goes out 60 hours I think and is run 4 times a day.
That is the 3km NAM, there are lower resolution models that go out farther but the 3k is the only one I'm concerned with here.
So you know, late Saturday into Sunday for SELA into Mississippi.
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:27 pm to Oates Mustache
I just think the sweet/sour balance isn't there.
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:27 pm to dukke v
quote:
Not trying anything except stating the fact that he started this thread with disaster on the way and now is in a position to do anything he can to be right.... it’s really sad..... he can give us all the maps he wants but he still has ZERO what might happen. Plus he has already admitted in this thread that he wants to see ice and snow for the Louisiana area....
Man, you are a pathetic person. Really, I can't put into words how you come across on this site.
quote:
Plus he has already admitted in this thread that he wants to see ice and snow for the Louisiana area....
What the frick is wrong with that? Tell me. I'll fricking wait, you sorry arse pussy.
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:28 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
TDsngumbo
bruh, let it go.
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:29 pm to TDsngumbo
By the way, it's beginning to look less and less likely for the Baton Rouge area to receive ice/sleet in my opinion.
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:30 pm to Duke
quote:
bruh, let it go.
I really should. His tardness isn't worth the effort.
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:33 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
it's beginning to look less and less likely for the Baton Rouge
The GFS says, "Not so fast, my friend!"
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:34 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
The GFS says, "Not so fast, my friend!"
That's what I'm looking at. The freeze line keeps getting pushed further and further north and west, leaving our area with more and more liquid precip with temps in the mid-upper 30s.
This post was edited on 2/11/21 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:39 pm to Duke
Duke, has this last GFS model run shown 3 separate events for DFW across all of next week every time?? I feel like the Thursday* event now being shown wasn't there earlier...
This post was edited on 2/11/21 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 2/11/21 at 4:39 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I have to ask, am I the only one who thinks cherry limeades are overrated?
Yes. they are nectar of the gods
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