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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - August 5, 2020 Update: 125,943 cases - 3978 deaths - 1,469,867 tested
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:11 pm to TigersSEC2010
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:11 pm to TigersSEC2010
I think a successful start to the school year will likely be key. If all goes well, we'll be moving to Phase III after the three weeks is up. If we see a ton of spread and a corresponding uptick in hospitalizations, he will reevaluate. We'll know which way we're going to go soon enough. My kid's school in Baton Rouge started in-person classes today.
1
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:13 pm to el Gaucho
quote:
How can you celebrate when people have died?
If you want to look at the troubling aspects of today's numbers, it is that since this month began Louisiana has lost 143 people, and the hospitalization numbers have only declined by 75. That means that the death numbers are the only thing accounting for the decline in hospitalization. Those who passed away have more than been replaced by new admits.
But if you look at the larger trends, today's numbers continue a very promising trend of lower positive test rates, which suggests that the spread is being impeded, and overall raw numbers of hospitalizations going down.
Despite the dark side of the death numbers, there is room for real optimism here.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:17 pm to TBoy
quote:
If you want to look at the troubling aspects of today's numbers, it is that since this month began Louisiana has lost 143 people, and the hospitalization numbers have only declined by 75. That means that the death numbers are the only thing accounting for the decline in hospitalization. Those who passed away have more than been replaced by new admits.
But if you look at the larger trends, today's numbers continue a very promising trend of lower positive test rates, which suggests that the spread is being impeded, and overall raw numbers of hospitalizations going down.
Despite the dark side of the death numbers, there is room for real optimism here.
You’ll be downvoted into oblivion for this but you’re spot on.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:19 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
NCAA Division III (which impacts Centenary College in Shreveport & Louisiana College in Pineville) has just canceled its fall sport championships altogether
no national champions will be decided in the spring for those fall sport teams
no national champions will be decided in the spring for those fall sport teams
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:21 pm to TBoy
People doing the right thing is about all we can hope for at this point.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:22 pm to TigersSEC2010
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:23 pm to TBoy
quote:
If you want to look at the troubling aspects of today's numbers, it is that since this month began Louisiana has lost 143 people, and the hospitalization numbers have only declined by 75. That means that the death numbers are the only thing accounting for the decline in hospitalization. Those who passed away have more than been replaced by new admits.
But if you look at the larger trends, today's numbers continue a very promising trend of lower positive test rates, which suggests that the spread is being impeded, and overall raw numbers of hospitalizations going down.
Despite the dark side of the death numbers, there is room for real optimism here.
I'm so confused... are deaths being counted in the official hospitalization numbers or not?
I've heard both yes and no repeatedly so I'm confused
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:23 pm to TBoy
quote:
since this month began Louisiana has lost 143 people
How many of those would have died this month if Covid was never invented?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:25 pm to rt3
quote:
I'm so confused... are deaths being counted in the official hospitalization numbers or not?
If a patient enters the hospital, they are counted as hospitalized. If they die, they are no longer hospitalized. Perhaps some die outside of the hospitals, but I assume that this would be a very small number, if any at all.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:25 pm to andwesway
quote:
If all goes well, we'll be moving to Phase III
Meh, I think he's going to go to "full" phase 2 and sit awhile before going to phase 3
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:28 pm to notiger1997
Unless there is a huge change in numbers we will phase two till October at least.... it’s hot and people want to get out and do things... it’s just common for people to do this.....
Posted on 8/5/20 at 1:59 pm to TBoy
I said the same on the last page
Posted on 8/5/20 at 2:12 pm to Methuselah
quote:
You new here, baw?
Nope, got caught by the troll...I'll take my punishment.
But, in my defense, I had most of that rant cued up from a real-life conversation and thought I would find a way to repeat it here....there's way to many "If it saves one life" people in my social circle that need beaten back down. Some people need to be reminded of just how fricked up this planet is, and COVID is just another fricked up thing we get to deal with for a while.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 2:19 pm to TBoy
quote:
you want to look at the troubling aspects of today's numbers, it is that since this month began Louisiana has lost 143 people, and the hospitalization numbers have only declined by 75.
Untrue.
By date of death, only 68 people have died so far in August.
I would imagine hospitalization numbers are without the lag of death numbers.
Therefore, based only on the numbers we know, discharges have outpaced deaths so far in August. Though, a big unknown in there is were all 68 deaths from hospitalized patients?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 2:20 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Meh, I think he's going to go to "full" phase 2 and sit awhile before going to phase 3
Yep, there is no way we go from bars being closed to reopening nursing homes
We will go to a full phase 2 for a minimum of 21 days imo
Posted on 8/5/20 at 2:21 pm to LSUJML
quote:
We will go to a full phase 2 for a minimum of 21 days imo
And not until after labor day at the earliest. I would guess about 2 weeks after labor day so JBE can see if there's any kind of slight bump so he can extend power.
So we are looking at well into October for Phase 2.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 2:21 pm to Fun Bunch
He's banking on a post Labor Day spike for sure
Posted on 8/5/20 at 2:25 pm to TBoy
quote:
If you want to look at the troubling aspects of today's numbers, it is that since this month began Louisiana has lost 143 people, and the hospitalization numbers have only declined by 75. That means that the death numbers are the only thing accounting for the decline in hospitalization. Those who passed away have more than been replaced by new admits.
The math behind why that's a bad assumption:
There is 1 way into a hospital, and 2 ways out of it.
So change in hospitalizations = Admits - (Discharges + Deaths). Since this is negative, we can say that on August 5th, there were more combined discharges + deaths than they're were admits.
On average, the people who had cases resolved today (whether they left out the front door or out the back), were infected 4 weeks ago. Meanwhile, the new admits were infected 2 weeks ago.
If the virus were still in exponential spread, there would be no way that the number of new admissions today (from infections 2 weeks ago) would NOT significantly outpace the total discharges + deaths from today (from infections 4 weeks ago).
In the R(t) = 2 scenario, and a doubling time of ~every 5 days (i.e. the initial parameters of what sent us into this mess), for every person leaving the hospital today (either walking out or in a body bag), 8 people would be right behind them checking in.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 2:39 pm to TigersSEC2010
This should have ended 4 months ago. This is fricking ridiculous and embarrassing that this is still a thing today. Open everything the frick back up and let's move on with our regular lives.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 3:26 pm to TigersSEC2010
Great numbers all the way around.
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