re: Louisiana COVID-19 - August 5, 2020 Update: 125,943 cases - 3978 deaths - 1,469,867 tested

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Give it a week or so, and he'll be praising his mask mandate for a peak that happened before masks would have had an effect. Edit to add: The peak in cases likely happened before, or simultaneously with, the mask order.

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Look at the post right above yours. When was the mask mandate?

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Look at the post right above yours. When was the mask mandate?

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Oh, I know when it was (7/13/20).

I gave myself that leeway with the various dates since folks have been comparing region to region in here. It's possible the different regions had different peak-cases dates.


With the peak falling around that same time, for masks to have had an effect on cases, the mandate would have had to have gone into effect, what?, 4-7 days before that?

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There is 1 way into a hospital, and 2 ways out of it. So change in hospitalizations = Admits - (Discharges + Deaths). Since this is negative, we can say that on August 5th, there were more combined discharges + deaths than they're were admits. On average, the people who had cases resolved today (whether they left out the front door or out the back), were infected 4 weeks ago. Meanwhile, the new admits were infected 2 weeks ago. If the virus were still in exponential spread, there would be no way that the number of new admissions today (from infections 2 weeks ago) would NOT significantly outpace the total discharges + deaths from today (from infections 4 weeks ago). In the R(t) = 2 scenario, and a doubling time of ~every 5 days (i.e. the initial parameters of what sent us into this mess), for every person leaving the hospital today (either walking out or in a body bag), 8 people would be right behind them checking in.

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I read this in my best Doc Brown voice

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I read this in my best Doc Brown voice

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It’s also easier to understand if you have a giant chalkboard lying around.