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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 30, 2020 Update: 28,001 cases - 1,862 deaths - 161,309 tested
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:48 pm to Golfer
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:48 pm to Golfer
quote:
The fact is in most states, Louisiana included, 35%-50% of COVID-19 deaths are from Nursing Homes or LTC facilities.
And 99% of remaining are probably at doctor pretty regularly for something like obesity or diabetes etc.
0
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:49 pm to Antonio Moss
Since deaths hit 54 on 3/31, they’ve barely moved except for the 4/14 and 4/15 spike. It’s not in line with the data even if you account for lag because it’s almost too consistent. But I do agree that the deaths are playing a role in the vent reduction.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:55 pm to ell_13
quote:
Since deaths hit 54 on 3/31, they’ve barely moved except for the 4/14 and 4/15 spike.
Percent positives on cases didn't really drop until 14-15 days ago which would place deaths at the beginning of the time to death interval.
The next 5-7 days should be pretty telling.
I also wonder if there is a lag in death reporting as well from non-hospital entities.
ETA: Just looking at Golfer's data. Seven day average new cases peaked on 4/8 which, if the 13-19 time to death interval is accurate, places those deaths between 4/22-4/27.
The 48 five day average began on 4/26. So hopefully we are catching the tail end of the peak deaths. It also can't account for the big unknown which is reporting lags.
This post was edited on 4/30/20 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:00 pm to Antonio Moss
Our 7 day average on 4/6 was 46.7. Today it’s 50.3.
Our 14 day average on 4/13 was 49.9. Today it’s 52.4.
That’s not consistent with any data that’s reliable.
Our 14 day average on 4/13 was 49.9. Today it’s 52.4.
That’s not consistent with any data that’s reliable.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:05 pm to uway
Not seeing their loved ones is very hard. Window visits helped for some but not all. And some families window visit with residents who don’t have families or they can’t/won’t come.
Six weeks is a long time. And no end in sight for it.
Also they did slow a priest to come in and give last rites to two who requested it or their family requested so that was a good thing.
Six weeks is a long time. And no end in sight for it.
Also they did slow a priest to come in and give last rites to two who requested it or their family requested so that was a good thing.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:08 pm to Privateer 2007
I can’t give you the numbers but I’ve been there 12 years and can’t remember ever seeing that many deaths in the same four or so week period or even over a stretch of months. Wish I could tell you hard numbers but it is way out of the norm.
This post was edited on 4/30/20 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:10 pm to ell_13
quote:
Our 7 day average on 4/6 was 46.7. Today it’s 50.3.
Using the median of the 13-19 day test to death interval, 16 days prior to 4/6 is March 21st. The seven day new case average on March 21st was less than 225 cases per day.
quote:
Our 14 day average on 4/13 was 49.9. Today it’s 52.4.
March 28th - new case 14 day average was around 500 cases per day.
quote:
That’s not consistent with any data that’s reliable.
Death are going to be higher post-case peak than they will pre-case peak.
The reason the 4/6 and 4/13 deaths per day averages even look that high compared to positive numbers is because of selection bias with testing.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:11 pm to ell_13
quote:
Our 7 day average on 4/6 was 46.7. Today it’s 50.3.
Our 14 day average on 4/13 was 49.9. Today it’s 52.4.
That’s not consistent with any data that’s reliable.
Unless you aren’t including some variables. In the beginning I think everyone was hospitalized out of fear by patients and doctors. Also, more people were vented. Now, I think more people are waiting to go to the hospital, more doctors are waiting to admit, and fewer are placed on vents.
Therefore, it makes sense that deaths would increase per vents and hospitalizations over time.
That’s just a theory, but there could be another un known or not discussed variable also.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:11 pm to TigersSEC2010
St. Tammany representing with the nCFR high water mark:
1220 Cases; 110 deaths - nCFR 9.02%
For Comparison - St. John the Baptist
768 Cases; 69 deaths - nCFR 8.98
1220 Cases; 110 deaths - nCFR 9.02%
For Comparison - St. John the Baptist
768 Cases; 69 deaths - nCFR 8.98
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:12 pm to tiger91
quote:
I can’t give you the numbers but I’ve been there 12 years and can’t remember ever seeing that many deaths in the same four or so week period or even over a stretch of months. Wish I could tell you hard numbers but it is way out of the norm.
It's really sad but this has been a reality since the beginning of the COVID outbreak. It absolutely decimates the elderly.
ETA: I think the hardest part for most people is not so much the thought of losing an elderly loved one but that they have to die alone.
This post was edited on 4/30/20 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:22 pm to Antonio Moss
Yes heartbreaking. Our nurses have been fantastic — we know these people not like in a hospital where you come and go.
Many have been in the facility for a while like years — I have no doubt that our nurses didn’t let them die alone if at all possible. I mean you have many residents under your care so you can’t stay in one room but I promise you they weren’t making tik tok videos.
Many have been in the facility for a while like years — I have no doubt that our nurses didn’t let them die alone if at all possible. I mean you have many residents under your care so you can’t stay in one room but I promise you they weren’t making tik tok videos.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:25 pm to TigersSEC2010
New Cases 7 and 14 day rolling average as of 4/30/2020 release
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:35 pm to Pintail
And Region 8 has the second-lowest number of total cases between all regions.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:42 pm to Antonio Moss
And is one of the most densely populated.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:48 pm to ell_13
quote:
And is one of the most densely populated.
Region 8?
I don't believe that is correct.
Region 8 is the Northeast corner of the state:
Ouchita
Union
Franklin
Lincoln
Morehouse
Caldwell
Richland
Jackson
Madison
Posted on 4/30/20 at 1:49 pm to Antonio Moss
You’re right. Was thinking it was BR for some reason. Ignore me per usual. 
Posted on 4/30/20 at 2:54 pm to ell_13
Just listened to part of honor chodes press conference for the first time in a while.
He's such a dumbass. He said they were alarmed upon learning that there is probably a big percentage of people out there who probably have it but don't know it because of no symptoms and no test.
He was acting like this was some scary new info that he was sharing.
He's such a dumbass. He said they were alarmed upon learning that there is probably a big percentage of people out there who probably have it but don't know it because of no symptoms and no test.
He was acting like this was some scary new info that he was sharing.
Posted on 4/30/20 at 3:03 pm to TigersSEC2010
I made a few assumptions based on the 4/26 numbers, but we are probably around 7200 cases remaining.
Per LDH
Only 16% of the cases did not meet the above criteria that were over 14 days old per the 4/26 relase (17,303/20,595)(recovered/cases more than 14 days old). I used this to assume recovered cases. The green line is total cases-deaths-recovered. This shows we have about 7,209 cases remaining in the state. It isn't perfect, but paints the picture.
Per LDH
quote:
**A person is presumed recovered if
1) it has been more than 14 days, since he/she tested positive and he/she is not currently in the hospital or deceased (when hospital status is known), or
2) it has been more than 21 days, since he/she tested positive and he/she is not deceased (when hospital status is unknown).
Only 16% of the cases did not meet the above criteria that were over 14 days old per the 4/26 relase (17,303/20,595)(recovered/cases more than 14 days old). I used this to assume recovered cases. The green line is total cases-deaths-recovered. This shows we have about 7,209 cases remaining in the state. It isn't perfect, but paints the picture.
This post was edited on 4/30/20 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 4/30/20 at 3:08 pm to Pintail
JBE is lying again, and hinting at an extension as well
Posted on 4/30/20 at 3:08 pm to notiger1997
quote:
He said they were alarmed upon learning that there is probably a big percentage of people out there who probably have it but don't know it because of no symptoms and no test.
Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) essentially said the same thing a month or so ago and got blasted by every national media outlet. I anxiously await them to do the same.
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