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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - 3/26/20 12PM CT Update: 2,305 Cases - 18,029 tested - 83 dead
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:07 pm to TigerDeacon
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:07 pm to TigerDeacon
quote:
Not looking in comparison to Italy. Looking to see how the rest of the state is faring as to what percentage of testing is positive.
But we have a lot of Italians here.
0
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:08 pm to MiloDanglers
quote:
I don’t suspect we’ll see numbers dropping anytime soon, even if actual contraction of the disease is shrinking.
People were talking about this last week. More testing will mean more confirmed cases. Panicking about that is ignorant.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:08 pm to MiloDanglers
The test results are a lagging indicator. To make an analogy- you know how when you look up at night and see the stars you are seeing what was there thousand of light years ago and not what is there today? That’s what these numbers are. They are a snapshot not if the current number of cases. They are a snapshot of the number of cases at the time the test was conducted, which could be more than a week ago.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:11 pm to Wiseguy
quote:
The test results are a lagging indicator. To make an analogy- you know how when you look up at night and see the stars you are seeing what was there thousand of light years ago and not what is there today? That’s what these numbers are. They are a snapshot not if the current number of cases. They are a snapshot of the number of cases at the time the test was conducted, which could be more than a week ago.
Except that you are also missing the fact that many people have been refused to be given tests due to not having the appropriate symptoms and many more people are asymptomatic. Therefore again, we are only testing a small portion of the population that even has it.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:12 pm to Wiseguy
quote:
when you look up at night and see the stars you are seeing what was there thousand of light years ago and not what is there today?
I was about to post this exact same thing. Right on the money. Today’s numbers are last week’s situation. The situation today is very different.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:17 pm to Number 9 Fan
Population density is relevant to consider as well as overall population:
Italy - 521 people/sq. mile
Louisiana - 94 people/sq. mile
Orleans/Jefferson - 815 people/sq. mile (18% of state population - 63% of cases; 70% of deaths)
Rest of Louisiana - 75 people/sq. mile (82% of state population - 37% of cases; 30% of deaths)
It's certainly going to continue to grow in the rest of the state, but not at the same clip it has is in the New Orleans area. They're going to be dealing this for a quite a while.
Italy - 521 people/sq. mile
Louisiana - 94 people/sq. mile
Orleans/Jefferson - 815 people/sq. mile (18% of state population - 63% of cases; 70% of deaths)
Rest of Louisiana - 75 people/sq. mile (82% of state population - 37% of cases; 30% of deaths)
It's certainly going to continue to grow in the rest of the state, but not at the same clip it has is in the New Orleans area. They're going to be dealing this for a quite a while.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:19 pm to The Boat
I don't even have the words to begin to critique you as an amateur immunologist... But I will say this, your data picks and chooses data points to compare certain region of Italy versus the entire state (schools closed-LA day 6, Lombardy day 7), or the entire nation versus our entire state. (lockdown LA day 14, lockdown Italy day 24) with other data points in between to obscure the overall picture and help your Argument
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:20 pm to Brummy
No doubt there are variables, and it’s a complicated issue; however, our early numbers are high. I just hope that the measures implemented last week are going to improve our numbers moving forward.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:33 pm to jrobic4
quote:
don't even have the words to begin to critique you as an amateur immunologist... But I will say this, your data picks and chooses data points to compare certain region of Italy versus the entire state (schools closed-LA day 6, Lombardy day 7), or the entire nation versus our entire state. (lockdown LA day 14, lockdown Italy day 24) with other data points in between to obscure the overall picture and help your Argument
He never claimed those things. He simply posted the chart that compared day 1 of Italy case to day 1 of case in LA.
I am anything but a sky screamer and think we should open things back up....but God damn, how sense you got to be to not see deaths are tracking at the same pace.
The chart was posted four days ago and for four days people have been using the same argument as you, yet the numbers for 4 days straight have held true and on the same path. How can you not acknowledge that.
I personally don't think we will get close to he levels as Italy, but damn man we are tracking at that rate and your dumbass argument doesn't hold up at all.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:40 pm to BZ504
quote:
Has anyone recovered? Is that factored in to the numbers?
To be declared "recovered" take a lot of work that quite honestly our medical people don't have time to do right now.
In my opinion, if you are on a vent, you might die, otherwise, you will eventually be "recovered"
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:46 pm to LSUFanHouston
If only 20% of test are coming back positive, what other nasty sickness is going around?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:57 pm to DomincDecoco
quote:
DomincDecoco
I'm pretty sure your spreadsheet has an incorrect formula in the column labelled "Delta %".
This formula should be the current day's delta divided by the previous day's total cases.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 1:59 pm to TigersSEC2010
The numbers are off for some areas. Bienville medical center in Arcadia (Bienville parish) posed on their facebook page they are treating two positive cases two days ago. But it only shows 1 case and 1 death for Bienville parish.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:04 pm to TigersSEC2010
They act as if testing is some precious commodity. I have been tested 3 times myself.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:17 pm to lsu xman
yup 
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:22 pm to DomincDecoco
I've spoken to 2 BR area hospital nurse friends, both of them said they have 1 Covid 19 patient. How does this jibe with the info being pushed out by the governor/media? Any hospital employees here that can post their experience?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:33 pm to BigSinna
quote:
BigSinna
Nice catch...thanks
Note the changes in projections based on the rate of increase from italy
NOTE: I am not taking a position, only curious if the Italy handwritten chart will turn out to be prophetic
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 4:49 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 3:07 pm to baldona
quote:
Therefore again, we are only testing a small portion of the population that even has it.
This is a possibility. And that variable, percentage of total population infected, may be outrunning the testing by a lot. A moving target that may be shrinking or growing.
How can that variable be known if some people are being turned away from being tested? Some percentage of those people being turned away are infected and contagious and an inflated number of the people being tested are coming up positive, largely because of the test screening protocols.
I don't think we can assume those variables' differences offset. They may and they may not.
Couple this with the lag between testing and results (a confusing unknown variable at best), and the notion that we're looking at accurate "snapshots" or data points of the contagion timeline is questionable.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 3:30 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 3:21 pm to DomincDecoco
quote:
Note the changes in projections based on the rate of increase from italy
I think you have a problem there now.
Tomorrow is correct for La., but it goes awry after that. projection should be (todays la total) x
(1.[italy's future day's delta %])
ETA I see what you did. You have the projection formula circling back to todays total instead of the projected total of the previous day
ETA2: Day 2 of the projection is adding 38 percent of the todays death total instead of the projected 112 total from tomorrow
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 3:42 pm to BigSinna
you got the eagle eye...edited the pic
lemme know
lemme know
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