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re: Louisiana COVID-19 - 3/26/20 12PM CT Update: 2,305 Cases - 18,029 tested - 83 deadPosted by BigSinna on 3/26/20 at 3:56 pm to DomincDecoco
quote:
you got the eagle eye...edited the pic
lemme know
Youve gone and messed up tomorrows projection ?? If you start with the 83 of today and add Italys delta% for tomorrow, you get 112, from there it should be 112 x Italys 38% in 2 days should read 154.
The highlighted box in your pic was correct in your formula the first time.
The issue with your projections is that theyre only valid as a daily snapshot, since you dont know what tomorrows actual death total will be.
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - 3/26/20 12PM CT Update: 2,305 Cases - 18,029 tested - 83 deadPosted by udtiger on 3/26/20 at 4:02 pm to HighRoller
quote:
Positive test percentage down 4 days in a row
you're watering down NO's tilting of the stats
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - 3/26/20 12PM CT Update: 2,305 Cases - 18,029 tested - 83 deadPosted by DomincDecoco on 3/26/20 at 4:10 pm to BigSinna
to get 99, I did the following:
(65 x Italy's percent increase tomorrow- 52%) + 65, = 99 (tomorrows projection)
then it circles back to the same formula, but from the projections column down ((99*.35)+99) all the way down
tddomincdecoco@gmail.com
ETA i see it now, damn thanks.
email me if you still think its wrong
(65 x Italy's percent increase tomorrow- 52%) + 65, = 99 (tomorrows projection)
then it circles back to the same formula, but from the projections column down ((99*.35)+99) all the way down
tddomincdecoco@gmail.com
ETA i see it now, damn thanks.
email me if you still think its wrong
This post was edited on 3/26 at 4:44 pm
quote:
The chart was posted four days ago and for four days people have been using the same argument as you, yet the numbers for 4 days straight have held true and on the same path. How can you not acknowledge that.
Because science.
Let's say I have to flip a coin 100x.
50x in and I have flipped 50 heads in a row.
What will the next coin flip be?
In experimental design, if a set of data gives you a result you expect, it does not make the result valid. Quite the opposite. The expectation introduces a bias which shits on your experiment.
The formula is incorrect. The empirical data are valid numbers, yes. But the data are incomplete. Without knowing testing rates, population density, risk factors, eliminating deaths not attributable to the virus, correcting for deaths not being attributed to it, or correctly indexing all of the above into empirical vs normative data sets... The numbers are worthless.
<---Nerd
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re: Louisiana COVID-19 - 3/26/20 12PM CT Update: 2,305 Cases - 18,029 tested - 83 deadPosted by DomincDecoco on 3/26/20 at 4:19 pm to X123F45
quote:
But the data are incomplete.
this is 100% correct
this is only a curiosity, not science...and certainly no policy should be based on this.
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - 3/26/20 12PM CT Update: 2,305 Cases - 18,029 tested - 83 deadPosted by tiger91 on 3/26/20 at 4:39 pm to DomincDecoco
Will you be updating this daily? Just want to know whether to look for it.
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - 3/26/20 12PM CT Update: 2,305 Cases - 18,029 tested - 83 deadPosted by DomincDecoco on 3/26/20 at 4:41 pm to tiger91
sure, in the make your bets thread
gonna have to include a disclaimer though
gonna have to include a disclaimer though
I understand that
<-----also a nerd (im an engineer, by definition I am a nerd)
But bottom line is right now we are on the same path as Italy. I personally think it levels off, but right now it shows no signs of that and we are matching perfect the last couple days.
<-----also a nerd (im an engineer, by definition I am a nerd)
But bottom line is right now we are on the same path as Italy. I personally think it levels off, but right now it shows no signs of that and we are matching perfect the last couple days.
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