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Looks like Italy is on the otherside of the peak
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:29 pm
From Worldometers
New cases per day peaked on March 20th and have remained in a stable range for the last 7 days.
4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy
The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear
New cases per day peaked on March 20th and have remained in a stable range for the last 7 days.
4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy
The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear
8
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:30 pm to Maderan
I figured they were doing better since AncientTiger didn’t make his daily post
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:30 pm to Maderan
Get Huey P to fire up the marching band
College football is BACK
College football is BACK
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:31 pm to Maderan
They ran out of old folks!
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:41 pm to Maderan
quote:
The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3.
R0 was above 3, and there it will remain for all eternity. Ri has been reduced to about 1.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:42 pm to Maderan
So our peak will be in about 2 weeks?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:43 pm to castorinho
quote:
They ran out of old folks!
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:46 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
So our peak will be in about 2 weeks?
April 9th-13th
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:46 pm to Sun God
quote:
An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear
Does this model take into account massive pockets of uninfected individuals suddenly thrust back into society at some future point?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:47 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
So our peak will be in about 2 weeks?
Even sooner than that. Next 4-5 days will be our peak. Daily new cases should begin to drop after that.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:48 pm to castorinho
quote:
They ran out of old folks!
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:52 pm to Maderan
I think the curves we're seeing here are affected by the fact that test results come in a considerable time after they are taken and sometimes in clusters. Numbers we're seeing today may have been tested more than a week ago.
I don't know if Italy is the same delay or not.
I don't know if Italy is the same delay or not.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:55 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
So our peak will be in about 2 weeks?
Yep. And then 2 weeks after that.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:57 pm to Maderan
Until everyone goes back to work and then we get a secondary spike.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 12:58 pm to Maderan
I read an article earlier that stated that Italy's government leaders are already looking into a way to send those who have antibodies against the virus back to work to begin opening up the economy.
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