re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

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What's so funny is the eye is going to be bigger than these 10 mile shifts. Might matter for the Triangle but doesn't really change the game east of the Sabine.

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It will contract as the storm strengthens and that also probably keeps EWRC off the table but the triggers for EWRC aren't very well understood. Anyway, the east "shift" for Advisory 24 vs 25.

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Was caught up to the thread late last night

Then it goes over a 100 pages today

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You're welcome.

Most of it is relevant, useful, and timely information. I wouldn't recommend skipping any. It builds on itself.

Is that really much of a shift or just straight lines between data points fooling us?

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It's all warm and deep

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That's a pretty ignorant thing to say especially when you consider the lack of resources Rita was able to get to people due to Katrina.

From Crown Weather Services (subscription service) - email forwarded to me

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2020 Tuesday Evening Update On Hurricane Laura Hurricane Laura: 8 pm EDT/7 pm CDT Statistics: Location: 25.0 North Latitude, 89.0 West Longitude or about 465 miles to the southeast of Galveston, Texas. Maximum Winds: 85 mph. Minimum Central Pressure: 983 Millibars or 29.03 Inches. Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 17 mph.

As expected, Laura is strengthening quickly this evening and reconnaissance aircraft are now finding a slightly stronger storm with each new pass through the hurricane. At this point, I think that Laura is probably at or very near Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds based on what reconnaissance aircraft are finding and how quick the storm is wrapping up on satellite imagery. Finally, latest barometric pressure readings from reconnaissance aircraft have found a pressure of 982 millibars and falling quickly.

As for the forecast track update – Many of the model guidance members have shifted eastward today with their forecast track of Laura. So, my question is this just another daytime shift eastward by the guidance where they will shift back to the west again with tonight’s model runs? Analysis of model guidance errors so far finds that the UKMET model seems to be still doing the best with its forecast track of Laura and it is forecasting Laura to make landfall about halfway between Galveston and Port Arthur late tomorrow night.

Based on this, I’m shifting my forecast track landfall point slightly to the east, but I am still just west of the forecast from the National Hurricane Center. This is an extraordinarily tough forecast because the difference of just 40 miles to the west would bring a major hurricane right into Galveston. On the other hand, if Laura ends up tracking just 40 miles to the east of my forecast track, it would put Port Arthur and Beaumont on the much weaker side of the hurricane, but would cause major damage to Cameron Parish and Vermilion Parish.

There are no changes to my forecast intensity forecast – I think we are now starting to see the first indications of rapid strengthening based on satellite imagery and reconnaissance aircraft reports. This means that I think that Laura is probably very near Category 2 strength now and probably will reach Category 3 intensity by midday Wednesday and finally Category 4 strength by Wednesday evening.

I also still think that Laura will make landfall as about a Category 4 hurricane with winds somewhere between 130 mph and 150 mph in an area about halfway between Galveston Island and Sabine Pass near sunrise Thursday morning. With that said, I am still concerned about a shallower turn or wobbles of the eye and eyewall as Laura approaches the Texas coast late tomorrow.

This means that I think the area from Freeport, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana is still at very significant risk from a major hurricane. I also worry that I’ve shifted my forecast track too far east and have concerns that the eastern end of Galveston Island will be where Laura makes landfall. Little wobbles in the storm’s track over the next 24 to 30 hours is going to mean a lot.

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It's all warm and deep

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Sounds kinda dirty...

Though I will say it will be interesting to see the impacts afterwards as far as recovery goes and how Covid-19 will slow it down. There isn't really another natural disaster to take eyes off this storm though so all the resources will be focused in the impacted areas.

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It will contract as the storm strengthens

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Sure but it should still be fairly large by the coastal approach.

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that also probably keeps EWRC off the table but the triggers for EWRC aren't very well understood.

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Agreed that EWRCs don't look likely. Though if the eye can contract enough, the changing shear conditions might be a trigger (realizing that I'm just spitballing).