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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:13 am to LSUFanHouston
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:13 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
If Laura comes in between Cameron and Pecan Island... what type of impacts in NOLA? Would they extend school closures until end of week?
Some rainbands and some wind, but not like hurricane conditions. They might close schools for the end of the week to be careful but that's more of a how the schools make a decision thing.
0
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:14 am to mattchewbocca
Appears Marco will be coming more inland. Anyone have rain total predictions for BR area?
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:14 am to rt3
quote:
checks to see what it takes to do sunflower stuff
They don't last long ... my husband planted I guess 3 or so acres and then 3 or so more so that we'd have waves of blooms. Couldn't make a living off of it BUT it would have been a great "job" for our daughter .. alas, we donate it all to St. Jude.
It's a lot of work to cut, take orders, deliver, etc. But it's fun and rewarding .. but it's hot and sweaty so ..
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:15 am to LSUJML
Thanks! It's the 3rd year that we've done it .. this was our biggest year -- $4600 or so thus far. Over 3 years we've raised more than $8300. This has been the best year.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:15 am to tiger91
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:15 am to tiger91
Thalys awesome.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:15 am to rds dc
quote:
Last 4 GFS runs
Lake Charles people...staying or evacuating?
I am leaving in the morning because I have to have electricity and the internet for work but I am worried about leaving my house unattended.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:16 am to LSURoss
Thanks .. we try! I wish I knew how to post pics .. and before y'all try to help me, others have tried and I just suck at it.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 11:18 am
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:16 am to loogaroo
So what does Laura mean for Avoyelles?
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:17 am to dukke v
quote:
dukke v
Peej what is your prediction mate? Need to figure out what my preparation efforts need to be, if necessary at all.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:17 am to doubleh
quote:
TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 79.7W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2020 0 21.0N 79.7W 1000 41
0000UTC 25.08.2020 12 22.5N 83.2W 995 47
1200UTC 25.08.2020 24 23.8N 86.3W 992 48
0000UTC 26.08.2020 36 25.1N 89.3W 984 54
1200UTC 26.08.2020 48 26.6N 91.8W 972 67
0000UTC 27.08.2020 60 28.5N 93.4W 954 74
1200UTC 27.08.2020 72 31.2N 93.5W 961 43
0000UTC 28.08.2020 84 34.2N 92.4W 974 41
1200UTC 28.08.2020 96 36.4N 90.5W 979 47
0000UTC 29.08.2020 108 37.7N 86.5W 978 37
1200UTC 29.08.2020 120 38.1N 79.7W 983 27
0000UTC 30.08.2020 132 39.8N 72.4W 976 44
1200UTC 30.08.2020 144 44.1N 65.2W 966 52
That waaaay west UKMET model came back to the eastern fold. Now Cameron Parish landfall with these coordinates.
ETA: Very clear at this exact moment that the western extent of the ridge is at the LA/TX border with all of them going due N at the 93rd parallel.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 11:20 am
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:19 am to tiger91
My wife is a photographer out here and they have a farmer that does approximately 5 acres of sunflowers every year. She is booked solid for people wanting to take family, senior pictures, etc. in the sunflower fields. I went last year to help the wife and did not return this year. It was hot, humid, and pretty damn miserable. I didn't get paid so...I'm out 
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:19 am to stout
Undecided.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 11:19 am
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:19 am to lsugolfredman
quote:
That waaaay west UKMET model came back to the eastern fold. Now Cameron Parish landfall with these coordinates.
Bitch needs to go ahead and get in the gulf, so we can really start to figure her track.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:20 am to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Appears Marco will be coming more inland. Anyone have rain total predictions for BR area?
Only a few inches if that unless something has changed
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:21 am to doubleh
quote:
So what does Laura mean for Avoyelles?
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:21 am to stout
1 year old and pregnant wife..think we are headed to Frisco, TX. Gonna cook gumbo and drink too much beer.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:23 am to Impotent Waffle
I mean, we have almost all major models now pointing directly at SWLA.
It wouldn't be a bad idea to go with the consensus right now.
I'm surprised there hasn't been more chatter about evacs, especially for Cameron. So far just a voluntary for the lower parish.
It wouldn't be a bad idea to go with the consensus right now.
I'm surprised there hasn't been more chatter about evacs, especially for Cameron. So far just a voluntary for the lower parish.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:24 am to tiger91
quote:
They don't last long ... my husband planted I guess 3 or so acres and then 3 or so more so that we'd have waves of blooms. Couldn't make a living off of it BUT it would have been a great "job" for our daughter .. alas, we donate it all to St. Jude.
It's a lot of work to cut, take orders, deliver, etc. But it's fun and rewarding .. but it's hot and sweaty so ..
I'm friends with a family that plants a large field of sunflowers and wildflowers every year. They do similar to what you are, but are only "open" a couple days a week with a "you pick", honor system the rest of the time. They've done fairly well with it, with surprisingly few people not abiding by the honor system.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 11:25 am to DhanTigers212
quote:
Any chance this thing shift towards New Orleans or can we safely say New Orleans is out of the danger zone? Go ahead downvote me for asking a question.
Of course there is a “chance”, but it would take a sizable forecasting miss for New Orleans to see a direct hit.
For reference, Laura is currently out of the first cone issued 4 days ago or so. She missed the 96 hour mark by 185 nautical miles, when the cone has a radius of 151 nautical miles at that interval. That translates to a z-score of 1.225, or about a 1/9 chance of missing that bad based on historical accuracy.
For New Orleans to catch the center of the storm (just for simplicity), you’d need a miss of 181 nautical miles in a 72 hour forecast, which is 1.757 standard deviations from the mean, or about a 1/25 chance forecasting miss.
In a real world sense, obviously you don’t need a direct hit to have substantial impacts, but you also need to consider there are very few ensembles that give any credence to a miss that far east.
Hope that helps.
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