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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/12/25 at 8:23 pm to cypher
Posted on 6/12/25 at 8:23 pm to cypher
ISW Update June 12 2025
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have sustained over one million casualties since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, over half of which occurred since January 2024.
Russian forces have reportedly sustained an average of 1,286 casualties per day between January and early June 2025 in exchange for marginal territorial gains.
Russian forces recently advanced across the western Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border northwest of Kurakhove as part of a multi-pronged effort to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Russian forces are likely attempting to level the frontlines in the Novopavlivka and Kurakhove directions to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to conduct successful long-range strikes that target Russia's defense industrial base (DIB).
Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners of war (POWs) again on June 12, in accordance with agreements the parties previously reached during talks in Istanbul on June 2.
Southeastern European countries reiterated their support for Ukraine on June 11, including Serbia signaling its willingness to improve bilateral relations with Ukraine.
Germany pledged to supply Ukraine with additional financial and materiel support, including air defense systems.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Siversk and Kurakhove.
0
Posted on 6/12/25 at 8:27 pm to cypher
quote:
I've already posted my
No you didn't. You did not post a screenshot of the question and complete answer like I did. You are a proven liar and fraud now. I knew you were lying and would not post the screenshot of the question and answer like I did.
Posted on 6/12/25 at 8:32 pm to cypher
How about this, cypher post all of the relevant Grok inputs and JB post breakeven cost
Posted on 6/12/25 at 8:34 pm to John Barron
quote:
You did not post a screenshot of the question and complete answer like I did.
red herring
quote:
You are a proven liar and fraud now.
ad hominem
Posted on 6/12/25 at 8:38 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
cypher post all of the relevant Grok inputs
My only input is
what is the breakeven cost for russian oil
JBs input is
"What is Russia's production cost per Barrel of Oil"
Posted on 6/12/25 at 8:43 pm to cypher
quote:
cypher
Still have not posted the screenshot of the Grok question and complete answer like I did. You accused me of cherry picking, I proved you completely wrong by being 100% transparent and posting the screenshot of the question and complete answer. You refuse to do the same thing. You have outed yourself as a liar and complete fraud
Posted on 6/12/25 at 8:50 pm to John Barron
quote:
You have outed yourself as a liar and complete fraud
projection
Posted on 6/12/25 at 9:03 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
How about this, cypher post all of the relevant Grok inputs and JB post breakeven cost
How about Chrome ask Grok. He does a great job.
Posted on 6/12/25 at 9:20 pm to John Barron
Posted on 6/12/25 at 9:21 pm to cypher
JB thinks that Lord Bebo doesn't exaggerate and only tells the truth.
Case closed
Case closed
Posted on 6/12/25 at 9:24 pm to John Barron
Posted on 6/12/25 at 9:25 pm to doubleb
What is the breakeven cost per barrel for Russian crude oil
The breakeven cost per barrel for Russian crude oil varies depending on the context—fiscal breakeven (to balance the national budget) or external breakeven (to cover production costs).
Fiscal Breakeven: This is the oil price needed to balance Russia's federal budget. Estimates for 2025 range from $70 to $77 per barrel for Urals crude, with some sources citing higher figures like $114 per barrel in earlier years. The Russian budget for 2025 assumes an average export price of $70 per barrel.
External/Production Breakeven: This reflects the cost to produce and extract oil. Recent estimates suggest $40–$44 per barrel for Russian onshore and offshore projects, with some variation by project type (e.g., Arctic oil is more expensive, around $55–$60). Saudi Aramco estimated Russia’s production cost at $42 for onshore and $44 for offshore in 2019. Posts on X mention a range of $35–$44, though these are less conclusive.
To be certain, X has a lot of ignorant posts on it from the like of Tucker the Stupid Phucker, Mike Benz, etc... who have zero clue and no experience in the matter
The breakeven cost per barrel for Russian crude oil varies depending on the context—fiscal breakeven (to balance the national budget) or external breakeven (to cover production costs).
Fiscal Breakeven: This is the oil price needed to balance Russia's federal budget. Estimates for 2025 range from $70 to $77 per barrel for Urals crude, with some sources citing higher figures like $114 per barrel in earlier years. The Russian budget for 2025 assumes an average export price of $70 per barrel.
External/Production Breakeven: This reflects the cost to produce and extract oil. Recent estimates suggest $40–$44 per barrel for Russian onshore and offshore projects, with some variation by project type (e.g., Arctic oil is more expensive, around $55–$60). Saudi Aramco estimated Russia’s production cost at $42 for onshore and $44 for offshore in 2019. Posts on X mention a range of $35–$44, though these are less conclusive.
To be certain, X has a lot of ignorant posts on it from the like of Tucker the Stupid Phucker, Mike Benz, etc... who have zero clue and no experience in the matter
Posted on 6/12/25 at 9:48 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Fiscal Breakeven: This is the oil price needed to balance Russia's federal budget.
Now you are asking about "Fiscal Breakeven"
That has nothing to do with the Production cost of a barrel of Oil which is $15 dollars
quote:
External/Production Breakeven: This reflects the cost to produce and extract oil. Recent estimates suggest $40–$44 per barrel for Russian onshore and offshore projects
This is incorrect. I just posted the Grok Analysis which was from 2025 and the cost was $15 per barrel which included infrastructure cost. It says in the Analysis that Russia would still make a profit off oil if it was priced at $30 dollars per barrel
Posted on 6/12/25 at 10:15 pm to John Barron
Meh to this group of young mostly Indians
The reason the insurance price cap was set at $60 was so that Russia could make barely enough profit to feed its own people and not fall apart into a number of warlord states with nukes
The reason the insurance price cap was set at $60 was so that Russia could make barely enough profit to feed its own people and not fall apart into a number of warlord states with nukes
Posted on 6/12/25 at 10:38 pm to CitizenK
Muh...Oil Prices....Muh... Oil Caps. Bunch of fricking Amateurs
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 6/12/25 at 10:41 pm to John Barron
Good news for Russia
Posted on 6/12/25 at 10:42 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Good news for Russia
If you gloss past how terribly their air defenses did, again.
Posted on 6/12/25 at 10:47 pm to MoarKilometers
quote:
If you gloss past how terribly their air defenses did, again.
Incorrect
Iran does not have S400 or S500 air defense systems
"Iran does possess Russian S-300 PMU-2 systems, delivered in 2016 after a 2007 contract, which enhance its air defense capabilities. Additionally, Iran has developed indigenous systems like the Bavar-373, which it claims rivals the S-300 and even the S-400 in capability, though these claims are unverified. Iran’s air defenses have faced scrutiny, with reports of Israeli strikes in Syria and Iran bypassing S-300 systems, suggesting limitations in their effectiveness"
Posted on 6/12/25 at 10:54 pm to John Barron
Of Course US produced oil prices spike in the major driving season when families travel hundreds of miles by car on vacation. US refineries are operating at 94% of capacity.
In the meantime one of the largest refineries in China has shutdown for good. China is the biggest consumer of Russian oil.
FWIW, in a short period of time I could not find on CREA's website where it shows how much is breakeven for ANY Russian crude, but in a number of reports it shows how Russia has had problems because it modernized using Western Technology and Western Capital. Neither is available any longer. FTR, China also relies on Western refining technology now that it has closeed many of privately owned teapot refineries (I would be afraid to even go near one)
In the meantime one of the largest refineries in China has shutdown for good. China is the biggest consumer of Russian oil.
FWIW, in a short period of time I could not find on CREA's website where it shows how much is breakeven for ANY Russian crude, but in a number of reports it shows how Russia has had problems because it modernized using Western Technology and Western Capital. Neither is available any longer. FTR, China also relies on Western refining technology now that it has closeed many of privately owned teapot refineries (I would be afraid to even go near one)
Posted on 6/12/25 at 11:35 pm to CitizenK
quote:
FWIW, in a short period of time
Are you a retard? I don't care what you could find. You are now a proven fraud and a liar. I posted a screenshot of the question and the full answer given by Grok that shows their homework. You on the other hand told us more of your BS fan fiction stories from a "Gazprom Business Associate"
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