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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 6/4/25 at 9:31 pm to
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3945 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 9:31 pm to
Every day is TACO Tuesday!!!
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42608 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 9:47 pm to
quote:

Every day is TACO Tuesday!!!


No Tuesday was Po Boy Express
I had Turkey
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

"This may be difficult to accept, but when I first raised concerns about Ukraine’s offensive operations in the Kursk region, I correctly anticipated that it could ultimately lead to Russian forces retaking Kursk and then advancing gradually into Sumy Oblast, and eventually toward Dnipro.

In hindsight, the offensive has proven far more costly than a limited incursion or a strategic defense would have been. A short-term operation, lasting two to four weeks, aimed at creating a modest buffer zone inside Kursk might have preserved resources. Instead, the campaign has resulted in significantly higher losses in both personnel and equipment.


Facts. Been saying this for two months. Kursk was a disaster.

quote:

Unless the loss ratio begins to shift decisively in Ukraine’s favor, Russian forces are likely to continue advancing, both into Sumy Oblast and, gradually, toward Dnipro. Yet the Ukrainian military and political leadership at times appears more focused on performative media operations than on articulating a long-term strategic vision for the battlefield beyond few months"


Reality. Ukraine is desperate and conducts strategy for the purpose of "making a news splash" hoping to convince naive people in the west that they are still in this or they are still relevant.

These "highlight grabbers" change nothing on the ground.



Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:05 pm to
One of the reasons Russia insists on calling the land it occupies Russian territory is that fresh Russian conscripts can't be sent outside of Russia. So if he calls it all Russia, he can send the conscripts there immediately instead of waiting for a few months of training.

There are cracks in Russia's manpower advantage that have been starting to show, but I just can't imagine them hitting a wall on that front before the Ukrainians do
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:12 pm to
quote:

Reality. Ukraine is desperate and conducts strategy for the purpose of "making a news splash" hoping to convince naive people in the west that they are still in this or they are still relevant.

These "highlight grabbers" change nothing on the ground.


The frustrating thing is that they were so close to success with multiple operations. Had the summer offensive focused on Crimea, if Ukraine would have caused havoc in Kursk and then pulled back, the use of long range weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia rather than closer to the front... Missteps at every turn.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:15 pm to
You have been posting for three years that Russia's economy is on the verge of collapse.

Newsflash: Give it up. It ain't going to happen. The sanctions have not worked. Europe has actually financed their war effort with their continued purchases.

Russia is out producing the west by a 4:1 ratio. Secreatary of Nato's words: not mine.Their army is growing. They are receiving massive imports of materials from China and other nations. They are still selling oil. Europe purchased more from Russia last year in terms of dollars than they supplied to Ukraine. I heard today that they are producing up to 1500 tanks/year.

As far as the fear mongers in Europe that are screaming that Russia is coming after them. If so, and they really believe this why hasn't Europe mobilized?
This post was edited on 6/4/25 at 10:17 pm
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:18 pm to
quote:


There are cracks in Russia's manpower advantage that have been starting to show, but I just can't imagine them hitting a wall on that front before the Ukrainians do


As repeated often by our two resident morons, Russia has the manpower, materiel, and resources advantage to degrees that should make discussions about whether they will win immaterial. The issue in peace talks has shown that Russia wants more than it has on the ground, which isn't a very good starting point for good-faith negotiations, and it is no surprise that talks break down so quickly.

The Russians definitely want Kherson and Odessa, but they aren't going to win those on the battlefield unless the Black Sea Fleet reappears and suddenly the Russians become competent at riverine operations. There are very few attacks along that axis and it is safe to assume that the Dnipro serves as a natural barrier that would be difficult for any army to cross.

The confirmed visual losses and casualty numbers should put Ukrainain efforts into relief. They have done a number on Russian equipment in this conflict. Arguably the Russians have already hit the wall and just try to overwhelm Ukrainain positions.

If things become more static, the Ukrainains could definitely do a 'death by a thousand cuts approach,' maximizing their advantages in terms of fitting into Russian culture but they desperately need the manpower to do so.

In relief, I'm not sure what is more impressive, Ukrainain grit or Russian incompetence.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:22 pm to
quote:


The frustrating thing is that they were so close to success with multiple operations. Had the summer offensive focused on Crimea, if Ukraine would have caused havoc in Kursk and then pulled back, the use of long range weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia rather than closer to the front... Missteps at every turn


Like I've said before, the war would have been over if the US and Europeans realized that you cannot manage a conflict between two parties who want to fight. It would have been cheaper, easier, and less destructive, ultimately, to go all or nothing for Ukraine from the moment the first aid package was announced. This phase of the war might have reached a conclusion.

I'm absolutely convinced that there is going to be another phase to this conflict in the long-term.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:23 pm to
The Ukrainian summer offensive was doomed to fail before it ever started. They never had the equipment nor the training to do what they were asked to do. If DEI Loyd Austin pressured them into it like it was reported he should be charged with war crimes.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:29 pm to
quote:

As far as the fear mongers in Europe that are screaming that Russia is coming after them. If so, and they really believe this why hasn't Europe mobilized?


They are rearming in a process that started really only after the Russian invasion, except for Poland, who was in the process of rearming from earlier. Rheinmetall is up like 300% this year and is up 2000% from 2020. That sort of investment will take time to see results.

The cynical view is that the Europeans are willing to expend Ukrainian lives in order to buy time for rearmament, to study this conflict in detail and to drain Russia of combat power, with the belief that they will need a period of recovery and rearmament after this war.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:40 pm to
quote:

The cynical view is that the Europeans are willing to expend Ukrainian lives in order to buy time for rearmament, to study this conflict in detail and to drain Russia of combat power, with the belief that they will need a period of recovery and rearmament after this war.


A European.politician made the statement last week that this war needs to go on for 5 more years and that will give them time to rearm. Not only is that laughable, it is immoral. When Ukraine finally comes out of this and realizes what the west did to them it won't be pretty.

I don't think they can do it in 5 years. I think it would be 10 to build facilities, arms and equipment to get into a decent state. The current state of most European armies and production facilities/capacity is dismal. They have made their bed and I don't feel sorry for them.

The EU has proposed a 800 billion defense expenditure but if you read the details of that only about 250 billion actually go to arms production. The rest is a lot of bullshite programs and pork projects. I call it Ursula's slush fund.
This post was edited on 6/4/25 at 10:47 pm
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 10:51 pm to
quote:



A European.politician made the statement last week that this war needs to go on for 5 more years and that will give them time to rearm


It will take Russia a while to rearm as well. The Europeans have to rebuild some industrial capacity too.

quote:


I don't think they can do it in 5 years. I think it would be 10 to build facilities, arms and equipment to get into a decent state


The turnaround for German deployment to Lithuania was somewhat impressive. In March of 2024, there was a scathing report released in Germany about the state of their rearmament program, first announced in 2022. After the report was released, the Germans announced they were going to implement some new measures and hoped to have a brigade-sized element ready to go to Lithuania by 2027. They were deployed the first detachment from that brigade this year, which is something. And I think they 100 billion that Merz originally stipulated has to be spent by 2027 as well, which maybe will drive some aggressive procurement.

quote:

The EU has proposed a 800 billion defense expenditure but if you read the details of that only about 250 billion actually go to arms production. 


Perun has a good video about that.

Unlike previous eras, there is at least some money and will behind European rearmament plans. But rebuilding that industrial capacity is the most time-sensitive task, and they will absolutely need American, Korean and Turkish weapons, among others, to make up the difference.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 11:01 pm to
I am an EU sceptic. These EU politicians are cunning. As long as they have the Russian boogie man they have the best of two worlds. They can try and keep the US tied to Europe and they can create slush funds in the name of "defense" spending.

All the while we are tied down in Europe and the Middle East China continues to grow stronger.

We are potentially committing suicide.
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 11:06 pm to
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 11:08 pm to
quote:

As long as they have the Russian boogie man they have the best of two worlds.


At this point, they have proven the Eastern Europeans correct, as they were saying the Russians were not trustworthy for a while.

quote:

They can try and keep the US tied to Europe and they can create slush funds in the name of "defense" spending.


Why shouldn't American companies benefit from the increased spending? There is no danger from letting them compete for those contracts.

quote:

All the while we are tied down in Europe and the Middle East China continues to grow stronger


Well it is all connected, and both South Korea and Japan have started the process of rearming. If Trump get an Iran deal done, we can possibly draw down from the ME even further.
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 6/4/25 at 11:36 pm to
Posted by John Barron
The Mar-a-Lago Club
Member since Sep 2024
17101 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 12:29 am to
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30450 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 1:35 am to
Impressive JB. More than 85 posts over the course of ~16 hours, almost all about the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4332 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 1:38 am to
Some very good advice...

quote:

The leader of the Crimean Tatar people, Refat Chubarov, has issued a clear warning to Russian citizens illegally living in Crimea: leave now while you still can.

“Once the Kerch Bridge is destroyed — and that time is coming soon — you’ll be trapped. Russian generals won’t think twice about using you as human shields to save themselves. It’s something they’ve always done.”





LINK
This post was edited on 6/5/25 at 1:40 am
Posted by PoppedRiser
Member since May 2025
856 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 3:28 am to


quote:


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